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Money aside, would you rather have Jim Johnson or Grant Balfour as closer in 2014?


Frobby

Money aside, would you rather have Balfour or JJ closing for the Orioles in 2014?  

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  1. 1. Money aside, would you rather have Balfour or JJ closing for the Orioles in 2014?



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Mike, in my opinion you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think Balfour will have a 92.5% save rate pitching half his games at OPACY instead of in Oakland. It just stands to reason he's going to allow more homers for us than for the A's, and it will cost him a save here and there. If he saves 87% I'll be satisfied. JJ was at 85% last year and 94% in 2012.

The 94% for Johnson was an outlier or career year however you care to phrase it, but I agree with you. Balfour won't be as good with Baltimore as he was with Oakland.

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Mike, in my opinion you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think Balfour will have a 92.5% save rate pitching half his games at OPACY instead of in Oakland. It just stands to reason he's going to allow more homers for us than for the A's, and it will cost him a save here and there. If he saves 87% I'll be satisfied. JJ was at 85% last year and 94% in 2012.

I am often disappointed. But he wanted to come here. He passed up more to come here. I hope he is up for the challenge.

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I am often disappointed. But he wanted to come here. He passed up more to come here. I hope he is up for the challenge.

I have every reason to expect him to be solid. I just don't expect a 92.5% save rate from him or anyone else. Even Rivera was at 89% for his career.

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One reason is because Balfour is in high leverage situations every time out there as the closer. Giving up the Home Run likely means losing the game. And for a fly ball pitcher, that would make me nibble a little bit too.

The A's had two setup men last year, Ryan Cook and Sean Doolittle. They pitched in the two next highest leverage situations after Balfour. Cook and Doolittle combined for 2.37 BB/9 at home and 2.29 BB/9 on the road.

I understand what you are saying, but it simply isn't borne out by the facts.

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