As of Today, Are the 2014 Orioles Better than 2013?

[Frobby]

No, we're clearly not better yet. But we still should have some money to spend so let's see if and how they spend it.

[Moose Milligan]

Seems to be about the same. Don't really see a drastic improvement here.

Bullpen should be a bit better.

[Guest]

2013 Black holes at 2nd , DH , and 5th starter as of right now still have the same Black holes.

[theobird]

No, the team is not better today. But I am better today, because I finally believe that we are going to be better by opening day. I think the money saved to this point will be spent on a SP. And I think it might be bigger than most have been thinking. If they can do that, and make a trade for a guy like Ike Davis or Justin Smoak...I will get behind that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Balfour + Webb > Johnson + K-Rod/Strop(probably...relief pitching is volatile after all)

Lough ~ McLouth(McLouth is the better hitter, Lough the better defender...probably close to a wash)

Flaherty/Weeks -?- Flaherty/Roberts(TBD)

??? -?- Feldman(TBD)

Urrutia/Reimold -?- Valencia/Pearce/Roberts/et al(TBD)

Verdict: Too many question marks to judge currently. Please check back later.

[hoosiers]

I think we are clearly better at 2B and LF. We are dependent on a healthy Reimold and/or Pearce and/or Urrutia to be better at DH - same train we were on last year and I'm fine with that.

This team is really going nowhere if we get net negative production for $20M-$25+M from Markakis and Wieters. Those two have to produce for the Os to sniff 90 wins IMO. Or bench Markakis early in the season for someone capable of putting up even 1.5 WAR - then we are certainly better in RF also. We are also better swapping Webb for McFarland and picking up nearly 1 WAR.

The question from here is whether the lack of productivity from the fourth and fifth starter spots can be upgraded. Perhaps Gausman will emerge this year, perhaps we sign AJBurnett and he produces 1.5 WAR.

[Jonesy10]

2013 Black holes at 2nd , DH , and 5th starter as of right now still have the same Black holes.

Flaherty had a 1.4 WAR last year in roughly half a season last year. He could easily put up a 3-3.5 WAR this season.

Also, I do think we need another TOR starter but Norris/Gausman as your #5 really isn't bad.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Flaherty had a 1.4 WAR last year in roughly half a season last year. He could easily put up a 3-3.5 WAR this season.

Also, I do think we need another TOR starter but Norris/Gausman as your #5 really isn't bad.

BBREF had him at exactly 1 win, which seems like a more realistic assessment to me based on watching him the whole year. I wouldn't hold your breath on those 3.5 wins. His bat basically didn't show up for half the season(April, May, and July), and he got unrealistically hot at the end(1.002 OPS in September) which helped put him back in the black offensively for the year and erase the stretch early in the year when he was literally bad on a historic level.

So which version is the real deal? Before you say the version that finished strong last year, remember that he did the same thing in late 2012 and still came out and OPS'd around .500 for April and May in 2013.

[Three Run Homer]

I don't think we're better yet. Lough will probably provide comparable value to McLouth in LF. It's not clear that Weeks instead of BRob makes us better at 2B. Balfour and Webb versus KRod and JJ would qualify as a bit of an improvement in the bullpen. Clearly our rotation is worse at the moment without Feldman. We're worse at DH without Valencia and not having signed anyone else.

If we sign a solid DH and a solid mid-rotation starter then I think we'll go into 2014 looking better than 2013, although a lot of changing team fortunes in 2014 will be driven by returning players--Davis likely to regress, Nick likely to bounce back a little, Machado may take a step forward, etc.

[hoosiers]

BBREF had him at exactly 1 win, which seems like a more realistic assessment to me based on watching him the whole year. I wouldn't hold your breath on those 3.5 wins. His bat basically didn't show up for half the season(April, May, and July), and he got unrealistically hot at the end(1.002 OPS in September) which helped put him back in the black offensively for the year and erase the stretch early in the year when he was literally bad on a historic level.

So which version is the real deal? Before you say the version that finished strong last year, remember that he did the same thing in late 2012 and still came out and OPS'd around .500 for April and May in 2013.

Flaherty would have been a 2 WAR player last year with 550 PAs - kick it up a little for Ryan's age 27 season, and I can envision something in the 2.2-2.5 WAR neighborhood over a full season.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Flaherty would have been a 2 WAR player last year with 550 PAs - kick it up a little for Ryan's age 27 season, and I can envision something in the 2.2-2.5 WAR neighborhood over a full season.

Unless he OPS'd around .500-.600 for those additional PAs which is something he's prone to do.

[hoosiers]

Unless he OPS'd around .500-.600 for those additional PAs which is something he's prone to do.

He was just as hot during parts of the season as he was cold. RF was having a strong June when BRob came back and took 2B away. That July you are dinging him for consisted of 10 PAs and 2 starts.

Another way of looking at it is that RF performed to an OPS over .820 (I am using my math, using a weighted average of PAs and OPS, which might be wrong, but probably more than directionally correct) from June 1 to the end of the season. If we split the difference and go with the end of season numbers, he's a 2 WAR player over 550 PAs with hopefully some age 27 improvement.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

He was just as hot during parts of the season as he was cold. RF was having a strong June when BRob came back and took 2B away. That July you are dinging him for consisted of 10 PAs and 2 starts.

Another way of looking at it is that RF performed to an OPS over .820 (I am using my math, using a weighted average of PAs and OPS, which might be wrong, but probably more than directionally correct) from June 1 to the end of the season. If we split the difference and go with the end of season numbers, he's a 2 WAR player over 550 PAs with hopefully some age 27 improvement.

Don't get me wrong- I certainly hope you are right and there is reason to be hopeful about his chances of success. However, he did finish very strong in 2012 only to fall flat on his face at the outset of this past season(and that's probably putting it gently).

I just think he's streaky and flawed at the plate, and don't personally think he's an everyday ML player because of that, although I would of course be very happy to find myself proven incorrect. And worst case scenario, if I am right, he's still a very solid bench player that plays solid defense at several positions and can hit the occasional homer.

[El Gordo]

We are better in the bullpen. We are deeper at 2B and LF. We need to get more IP from SP and a LH bat at DH. We have at least 10M to do that. I'd say we are slightly better.

[Dipper9]

As of today we're about equal.

However, any improvement this team makes will be based on Wieters, Markakis, Gausman, Flaherty, and Reimold all having better seasons than last year. If those five players have even or worse results than last year, it won't matter who we add to the team, we won't be competitive.