As of Today, Are the 2014 Orioles Better than 2013?

[Frobby]

I guess it's just me but I don't see all the big significant improvements in the other teams in this division. The MFY spent the most money but they have a terrible IF and they are counting on CC, and Kuroda not to show the wear and years on their arms that we saw last season, plus Tonaka to quickly adjust to NYC and MLB and become a TOR. Right now Nava is their best SP. Also they have to hope that Robertson can close. BOS benefitted from career years from a bunch of role players last season. Will they have the same type of year this season? Can Poppy keep it up, juice or no? Do we really expect Lester, Bucholtz, and Lackey. all to be lights out again? The best thing TB did this offseason was not trade Price and that still could happen.

I agree with you here. Folks focus a lot on who the Yankees acquired (Tanaka, Ellsbury, Beltran, McCann), but they also lost a lot (Cano, Pettitte, Hughes, Rivera, Granderson and ARod for the year), and they aren't likely to outperform their Pythag like they did last year. The Sox lost Ellsbury, Drew, and Saltalamacchia and added Pierzynski and Mujica. Tampa added Balfour, Bell and Hanigan and lost Rodney, Kelly Johnson, Luke Scott and Jamie Wright. Bottom line, I don't see that our competition got signjificantly better.

Of course, the Yankees may improve just by having guys stay healthier than last year, but by the same token, Tampa is not likely to be as ridiculously healthy as they were in 2013.

[33rdst]

So you think the club improved it's starting pitching' date=' it's bullpen, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, DH, and catcher and will be the same as last year at SS and CF? Considering they won 85 games last season, you must be figuring on what? 110 or 120 wins? Please be just a tiny bit more objective.[/quote']

How about you go out on a limb and express your opinion about the state of the team.

[Fla_O'sfan]

I agree with you here. Folks focus a lot on who the Yankees acquired (Tanaka, Ellsbury, Beltran, McCann), but they also lost a lot (Cano, Pettitte, Hughes, Rivera, Granderson and ARod for the year), and they aren't likely to outperform their Pythag like they did last year. The Sox lost Ellsbury, Drew, and Saltalamacchia and added Pierzynski and Mujica. Tampa added Balfour, Bell and Hanigan and lost Rodney, Kelly Johnson, Luke Scott and Jamie Wright. Bottom line, I don't see that our competition got signjificantly better.

Of course, the Yankees may improve just by having guys stay healthier than last year, but by the same token, Tampa is not likely to be as ridiculously healthy as they were in 2013.

Not sure you can say the Rays were ridiculously healthy. Their 2 best pitchers, Price and Cobb spent considerable time on the DL, with Cobb missing almost the entire summer. Their third best pitcher, Moore, also was on the DL and Jeff Niemann never did pitch.

[SteveA]

Not sure you can say the Rays were ridiculously healthy. Their 2 best pitchers' date=' Price and Cobb spent considerable time on the DL, with Cobb missing almost the entire summer. Their third best pitcher, Moore, also was on the DL and Jeff Niemann never did pitch.[/quote']

Seriously, if we had:

-- Tillman miss as much time as Price did

-- Chen miss as much time as Cobb did

-- Gonzalez miss some time, as Moore did

-- and Norris miss ALL season than Niemann did

Where would we be? And I think you can make a case that in each case, the Tampa pitcher is better than the analogous Oriole pitcher.

That is the kind of precarious place we are in. Frobby said Tampa was extremely healthy last year, but if we were to suffer about the same level of injury that the healthy Rays did, I think most would agree that our season would be in big, big trouble.

[tntoriole]

Yes they will be an improved club with the roster they currently have.

First base will decline slightly simply because Davis will have a hard time reproducing those numbers.

Davis will NOT reproduce those numbers so this is worse than 2013

Second base will be improved because we we'll hack continuity at the position for the first time in years.

Ryan Flaherty has played 162 games in the big leagues and has hit .221. He had the worst offensive April and May of a full time position player I have ever seen in all the years I have been watching the Orioles. If he outproduces Brian Roberts, I will be surprised. Net negative.

Shortstop is a constant. What you see is what you get from JJ.

A wash if JJ does not age any.

Third base, markedly improved. I look for Machado to continue to trend upward.

Machado has had first major injury/surgery and his 2013 was overly outstanding. It is hard to see how 2014 isn't a bit of a regression from 2013. Not 2015, but 2014.

Left field markedly improved. IMO lough will be a better player then McClouth. He's way better defensively and he'll hit better too.

McClouth will put up better numbers than Lough, imho, but close. Net wash at best or slight decline.

Center field. AJ will drive us crazy at times but he'll put up similar numbers to last year.

Net wash to 2013

Right field. Markedly improved. Nick's bat and defense will return to form.

I hope so, but I don't buy that he is not on an aging decline as opposed to just being injured. Hope I am wrong, but we will know in the first month of the season.

Catcher. Wieters Willet up similar numbers. His value will be how he handles the staff, especially Hunter at closer. Clevenger, our back up catcher will be much better.

Wieters will be another wear and tear year older and his offense will suffer if he catches as many games as he has in the last three years.

DH. Improved I don't think we're done yet but Young and Urrutia works for now.

This was a black hole in 2013 so it is hard to see how it couldn't improve, but I swear it is amazing how the improvement at best has gone from black hole to poor.

Starting pitching. Improved. Chen healthy more mature. Gonzalez, healthy, more mature. Tillman increased confidence. Norris healthy. Number five TBD. But if we have to go with what we have I like Gausman but wouldn't it be great if Matusz found himself again? This is the key, of course. I think the starting pitching needs an upgrade. DD does not. And some on the board do not. I think Tillman could as easily regress from a breakout 2013 and the problem I have with Chen and Gonzalez is innings and their problems beyond 5-6 innings.

Bullpen. Improved. Webb, Aceves, will combine with returning to make this the strength of the team. I like Escalano as a dark horse. Also Yoon will help at the back end. Hunter is up to it. This is a completely different outfit from the stellar, best in MLB group of 2012 and the still good group of 2013 that was stressed by too little starting pitching support. Now, it is a whole new bullpen with no defined leader/closer and if Tommy Hunter starts 2014 as closer, I predict he will not finish 2014 as closer. Moving him out of his setup role, losing Patton, adding in Webb to AL East that he is completely new to...I think this group is not as good as 2013 and certainly not as good as 2012.

[isestrex]

The talent seems level seems roughly equivalent.

Agreed. Better? No. The same... yeah looks like it.

The 2013 team, IMO, was as unlucky as the 2012 team was lucky. Instead of having the best winning percentage in one run games, they had the most blown saves and losses after leading going into the 9th. It would make sense that the 2014 team would return to the luck median.

[ricowiz]

No, they are not better as of right now.

Black hole remains at DH and 2b. LF is an iffy upgrade over last year, we lost Feldman as well as Jim Johnson.

Chris Davis will regress a little, Wieters will improve a little. I expect Machado to have a down year.

Right now I can see us in the 78-82 win range

[Can_of_corn]

Agreed. Better? No. The same... yeah looks like it.

The 2013 team, IMO, was as unlucky as the 2012 team was lucky. Instead of having the best winning percentage in one run games, they had the most blown saves and losses after leading going into the 9th. It would make sense that the 2014 team would return to the luck median.

Kinda depressing that my comment from two months ago is still relevant.

[oriole]

I like to think that Machado will put up better numbers, Lough will be similar to McLouth, Wieters will work on his offense more because that's what will get him paid, Markakis will bounce back after a healthy off-season, call me crazy but I think Reimold puts up numbers similar to his rookie year, Hardy and.Jones will stay on course...I think we're in good shape but I admit I'm being a little optimistic. I think Davis falls back to earth and we will all say "we should've traded him!"

[El Gordo]

First base will decline slightly 850+ OPS 40 HR 100 RBI

Second base Will improve over last year's .669OPS.

Shortstop is a constant. About the same 20+HR, plus defense .730 OPS.

Third base, Solid D, if not platinum. still GG, More power 18+HR better OBP .320 +

Left field About the same ..720+ OPS better defense

Center field. Less HR, better OBP, same level of defense

Right field. Will regress to mean .780 OPS.

Catcher. Wieters BABIP will be back up to career average, .20+HR .750 OPS

Bullpen. Deeper. CL ???

SP should be a tick better(Gausman), but the biggest question mark IMO.

[Loophole]

If we're better this year, it won't be without Gausman taking a huge step forward. Even if we add one or two of the QO-rejecters, he's still the key for me.

Wieters and Markakis important too.

[Scotto]

If we're better this year, it won't be without Gausman taking a huge step forward. Even if we add one or two of the QO-rejecters, he's still the key for me.

Wieters and Markakis important too.

Agree with this, a huge plus if Gaus takes a step forward,

probably will struggle to match last years record if not. I don't

think he has to be on the opening day roster, but he's gotta be pitching effectively by the end of May. Sure would be a big

bonus if Matusz or Britton find their form and add some quality

starts to the equation, would make me feel better if one of the

other starters had to spend time on the DL.

[Lester Freamon]

The pitching is, IMO, a little better then what we started out with in 2013 but still, unless another starter is added or if Yoon is another Chen, about the same as what we finished last season with. Feldman's productivity has not been replaced yet unless Gausman really takes a leap forward or, again, if Yoon is truly healthy and makes a Chen-like transition to MLB.

Defensively this team is really exciting and actually, potentially, even better with Lough. I'm fine with a Young/Urrutia DH platoon, if it shakes out that way. I'm not expecting improvement offensively from Nick or Matt, if they do, great. I actually still like Flaherty at 2B.

My biggest concern is Manny. Manny improving his offensive production would be huge for this team. He was below average offensively for half of last season. That, coupled with what I perceive is a lack of being able to truly prepare for the season due to rehabbing his injury, may, I fear, lead to a significant sophomore slump. However, I think he will still be outstanding defensively. I do try to remember though that he did what he did in his age 20 season and that provides some solace.

[Frobby]

Seriously, if we had:

-- Tillman miss as much time as Price did

-- Chen miss as much time as Cobb did

-- Gonzalez miss some time, as Moore did

-- and Norris miss ALL season than Niemann did

Where would we be? And I think you can make a case that in each case, the Tampa pitcher is better than the analogous Oriole pitcher.

That is the kind of precarious place we are in. Frobby said Tampa was extremely healthy last year, but if we were to suffer about the same level of injury that the healthy Rays did, I think most would agree that our season would be in big, big trouble.

I didn't include Neimann in my injury calculations. Nor did I include Wada, or Pineda, or anyone else who was never on the field during the year. Putting him to one side, the entire Tampa team missed 268 games total, compared to over 550 for the Orioles and over 1,000 games for the Yankees. The biggest injury they had to a position player was Luke Scott at 41 games. Desmond Jennings missed 12 games. That's it for time missed by position players. Think that will happen again? As to the rotations, Tampa's guys missed 126 games, ours missed 104. They only had one injury in their bullpen, to Brandon Gomes, hardly a key cog.

[weams]

If we're better this year, it won't be without Gausman taking a huge step forward. Even if we add one or two of the QO-rejecters, he's still the key for me.

Wieters and Markakis important too.

I think these will be three important factors as well. Nick is playing for a contract. And Wieters is playing for a Mauer contract.