What is the "right offer"?

[Sports Guy]

Haren was under contract for three years to Bedard's two. Bedard shouldn't bring as much in return.

Bedard is just better though and he is left handed.

[El Gordo]

You don't switch Triunfel to Chen just to end up with a mediocre guy like Marshall. That would be terrible.

We have enough arms...If we just added one more, that would be plenty. We got 2 potential starters in the Tejada deal plus everything we already have, not to mention anything we could get in other deals.

Who pans out to be the better player in your opinion Chen or Cedeno? Truinfel is a terrific prospect but he's only 17 and we need a 2B to replace BRob. We can get a better SS with Clement.

[Rob H]

Bedard is just better though and he is left handed.

What on earth does being left-handed have to do with this? All that's important is run prevention, and Haren and Bedard are pretty equal in that regard.

[El Gordo]

I wouldn't except a deal with Seattle that didn't include Jones and I wouldn't accept a deal from Cincy that didn't include Votto and Curtto/Bailey. I doesn't appear that either have really been offered.

[Rob H]

Question for you. You may think it has nothing to do with this thread, but please respond. Do you think the O's got fair value for Tejada? Poor value? or Excellent value?

I'd have to go with excellent value. I'm still not sold on the particular prospects involved, but Tejada isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball. Getting anything of value while not picking up any contract, even if it's a guy like Patton who I'm not sold on at all, was a pretty impressive feat.

Or perhaps to phrase this better...

Houston is a worse team this year and in the coming years than they would have been had they not made the trade. You got more immediate value and more future value, which is a pretty big coup.

[HarryReasonable]

Haren was under contract for three years to Bedard's two. Bedard shouldn't bring as much in return.

Bedard is left handed - and quality left handers are more highly valued than quality right-handers because of how sparse they are, so I see the 2-yr. vs 3-yr. difference as an offset.

I thinik we may get the best return within our division, since most of the teams north of us would have the best chance at extending him. And how many times will we really face him each year? Plus, if we plan on losing while we are rebuilding, then waht does it matter that he'd be pitching against us? By the time we get to be any good and competetive, Bedard will probably be 33 or 34. But in the end, if we can get a major league arm and good, everyday players in return for him now, regardless of what division we trade in, I say we take it.

Think about it, any team that feels that there is a high risk of not being able to sign Bedard long-term may value him less on the surface for that reason alone, since they may be trading away future stars for 2 years of Bedard. As much as I hate to say it, I think he has the most value within our division, and like it or not, he may end up in our division in 3 years anyway while we settled for a lesser return to keep him out of it.

It's very short-sighted to not consider a premium offer from the AL East if we can get one. For crissakes, even if we don't trade him to New York or Boston, one of them will end up with Santana anyway, either through a trade or free agency, so what's the difference. We won't be competing for a few years anyway and hopefully by then, our core of young players will be better than NY or Bostson.

[HarryReasonable]

Who pans out to be the better player in your opinion Chen or Cedeno? Truinfel is a terrific prospect but he's only 17 and we need a 2B to replace BRob. We can get a better SS with Clement.

I know this sounds crazy, but the fact that Triunfel is only 17 raises a question for me. For any of you old enough to remember, wasn't Robin Yount only like 18 yrs old when he started for Milwaukee? Was he that much better than this guy is. How is it that some of these highly talented players ned to be brought along slowly in the minors and someone like Yount or the Upton kid in Arizona can get thrown right in and succeed. Why not put the 17-year old at shortstop, or 2nd base and lets watch him play in the big leagues now. Now I would pay to see that!

[sector7g]

To answer the original question......

I would not have accepted (based on reported offers as best I can guess);

Jones, Clement, Sherrill for Bedard or...

Gallagher, Marshall, Cedeno for Roberts.

If you switch Sherrill for Tillman or Trufinel I would do it.

If you switch Marshall for Murton I would do it.

I would have accepted Kershaw, Kemp + AN other (Meloan, Hu, Eithier, basically anyone of reasonable value) for Bedard.

I would have accepted Miller & one other reasonable prospect for Roberts.

[El Gordo]

Bedard is left handed - and quality left handers are more highly valued than quality right-handers because of how sparse they are, so I see the 2-yr. vs 3-yr. difference as an offset.

I thinik we may get the best return within our division, since most of the teams north of us would have the best chance at extending him. And how many times will we really face him each year? Plus, if we plan on losing while we are rebuilding, then waht does it matter that he'd be pitching against us? By the time we get to be any good and competetive, Bedard will probably be 33 or 34. But in the end, if we can get a major league arm and good, everyday players in return for him now, regardless of what division we trade in, I say we take it.

Think about it, any team that feels that there is a high risk of not being able to sign Bedard long-term may value him less on the surface for that reason alone, since they may be trading away future stars for 2 years of Bedard. As much as I hate to say it, I think he has the most value within our division, and like it or not, he may end up in our division in 3 years anyway while we settled for a lesser return to keep him out of it.

It's very short-sighted to not consider a premium offer from the AL East if we can get one. For crissakes, even if we don't trade him to New York or Boston, one of them will end up with Santana anyway, either through a trade or free agency, so what's the difference. We won't be competing for a few years anyway and hopefully by then, our core of young players will be better than NY or Bostson.

I basically agree with you, but when I look at the NL Central, it seems to me that which ever of Cincy, the Brewhaha's or the Cubs, got Bedard, are in the payoffs. They must have enough prospects they can part with, to contend for the WS the next 2 years at least, don't you think?

[El Gordo]

I know this sounds crazy, but the fact that Triunfel is only 17 raises a question for me. For any of you old enough to remember, wasn't Robin Yount only like 18 yrs old when he started for Milwaukee? Was he that much better than this guy is. How is it that some of these highly talented players ned to be brought along slowly in the minors and someone like Yount or the Upton kid in Arizona can get thrown right in and succeed. Why not put the 17-year old at shortstop, or 2nd base and lets watch him play in the big leagues now. Now I would pay to see that!

He is just holding his own in A ball which is fine for a 17 year old but he'd be overwhelmed in the ML's IMO. Also a lot of scouting reports project him as 3B rather than a SS

[Rob H]

I basically agree with you, but when I look at the NL Central, it seems to me that which ever of Cincy, the Brewhaha's or the Cubs, got Bedard, are in the payoffs. They must have enough prospects they can part with, to contend for the WS the next 2 years at least, don't you think?

Bedard isn't likely to add more than 2-3 wins to any one of those teams, considering the asking prices all contain significant chunks of the ML roster.

[Roll Tide]

Switch Truinfel for Chen to replace BRob at 2B and switch Cedeno for Marshall?

I dont think you switch Triunfel w/ Chen. If you like Chen (#17 prospect in their system) you simply give them another player that might help now) Bradford, Payton , Millar, Huff or a 15-20 prospect in our system. I like Chen & think he could replace Roberts if dealt. And maybe his production would be similar in 2-3 years.

I keep seing Patterson & Cedeno in threads. I dont see Cedeno as much of a upgrade over LH. He makes a ton amount of errors & I'm dont believe he will be a very good hitters in the minors. Patterson is said do have poor footwork & not sure he will get better. Therefore he is a hitter without a position. Basically a leadoff type in the DH slot? I'd pass on both these guys. While some here argue that these guys are better than the retreads (I agree) They are not long term solutions either. In the Cubs deal I'd probably ask for Murton , Gallagher, & Colvin rather than their middle infielders that they want to trade as they consider them less than Theriot & Derosa.

[El Gordo]

To answer the original question......

I would not have accepted (based on reported offers as best I can guess);

Jones, Clement, Sherrill for Bedard or...

Gallagher, Marshall, Cedeno for Roberts.

If you switch Sherrill for Tillman or Trufinel I would do it.

If you switch Marshall for Murton I would do it.

I would have accepted Kershaw, Kemp + AN other (Meloan, Hu, Eithier, basically anyone of reasonable value) for Bedard.

I would have accepted Miller & one other reasonable prospect for Roberts.

I would have accepted either of the first two trades. I don't think the difference beteween Sherrill and Tillman/Truinfel or Marshall and Murton is worth not trading them.

[Rob H]

Thanks for being honest. My point is this. You could make the argument that Haren has more value than Bedard. More service time and more durability. However, some teams may value Bedard just the same as Haren. Under the right circumstances some team might even pay more. So, we could argue over their respective values. I think it's fair to say it's close. In the end, we (hopefully) can compare what each player brought back.

Some teams might value Bedard more than Haren, but that wouldn't be for any logical reason. It'd be for nonsensical ones like him being left handed... which really doesn't matter in the least. If you're banking your argument on a GM making a gross miscalculation, you've already lost the argument. All I said was that Haren should have more value, not that all the GM's would be smart enough to see it that way.

[Roll Tide]

Bedard isn't likely to add more than 2-3 wins to any one of those teams, considering the asking prices all contain significant chunks of the ML roster.

If Bedard allows any one of these teams to drop the 5th starter thats not very good. The difference is probably much greater. If they replace a guy that would likely have been a .500 pitcher best case scenario with a 5.00 era. Then I seriously disagree with your comment. With Bedard they have a chance to win 85-95% of his starts. Yep I'd say your way off base here!