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What is the "right offer"?


Sports Guy

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It doesn't work quite like that. What it does is translate the stats from back when it was a 154 game schedule to a 162 game schedule, so that we can compare players from that era with the ones from the current era without having to consciously adjust for the discrepancy in games played.

At any rate, Bedard didn't miss "half the season." He had 24 starts, which is only four less than he had last year. Besides, health is a skill.

Ah - thanks for the clarification. I knew there was some adaptive trickery involved. Just wasn't sure what it was, exactly.

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I keep seeing people say, if AM takes the "right offer", he would make these deals.

The question I have is, what is the right offer?

Does the right offer, in the mind of AM, mean us getting blown away or is he willing to take a good, fair offer and move these guys?

I don't know the answer to that, but what type of offer would you need? It seems like you have very high expectations as well.

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Haren was under contract for three years to Bedard's two. Bedard shouldn't bring as much in return.

Bedard is better than Haren. Forget the extra year. In order for a team like Seattle to win they need a #1. That is Bedard. Do not forget that Haren pitched in what might be the best pitchers park in baseball. Oakland has a big park with massive foul ground.

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Bedard is better than Haren. Forget the extra year. In order for a team like Seattle to win they need a #1. That is Bedard. Do not forget that Haren pitched in what might be the best pitchers park in baseball. Oakland has a big park with massive foul ground.

Visiting teams visitors here never consider Pitchers Parks / vs OPACY & NL w/ the pitcher vs the monsters of the AL East when considering these things. Its easier to lessen Bedard's value that way!

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Bedard is better than Haren. Forget the extra year. In order for a team like Seattle to win they need a #1. That is Bedard. Do not forget that Haren pitched in what might be the best pitchers park in baseball. Oakland has a big park with massive foul ground.

Bedard is better than Haren on a per-inning basis. Haren has averaged about 220 IP over the last three seasons. Bedard has averaged about 170. Haren's 50 extra innings of only slightly inferior ball are valuable enough that Haren is on equal terms with Bedard on a per-season basis.

And yes, that is adjusted for the difference in their home parks, and AL East vs. AL West.

And since they're pretty much equally valuable each year (though admittedly with a higher ceiling for Bedard if he manages to keep his stuff together and actually stay healthy one of these years), Haren has more overall value simply due to the fact that he's under contract for a whole extra year.

Bottom line: Bedard is risky. And not just slightly.

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I've done three seasons for everything. Not only a three-year splits the most accurate for predicting trends going forward, but it was the first year that a comparison became possible, considering Haren began starting full-time that year. I've not cherry picked a thing.

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I've done three seasons for everything. Not only a three-year splits the most accurate for predicting trends going forward, but it was the first year that a comparison became possible, considering Haren began starting full-time that year. I've not cherry picked a thing.

Bedard was as dominant in 2007 as anybody ...Very much in his prime & If he hadn't been shut down by the club the club as they had nothing for him to pitch for he more than likely could have started 2-3 more times

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I don't know the answer to that, but what type of offer would you need? It seems like you have very high expectations as well.

I think Jones, Clement and one of Triunfel or Tillman is fair.

If we can get Sherrill or another solid 4th piece added to the deal, great.

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Tough to say....I think I ultimately make the trade with the intention of trading Sherrill at the deadline.

I make that trade because of Jones.

Curious that you'd settle for 1 elite ML-ready prospect, 1 prospect that, although well regarded, is only in A-ball (with some shaky peripherals to boot) and thus is a highly volatile commodity, and 1 30-YO reliever, but you can't fathom a realistic package from the Cubs that you'd prefer.

Seems to me, right off the top Pie + Gallagher meets or exceeds Jones + Tillman, and finding someone like Sherrill to add would be cake.

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Curious that you'd settle for 1 elite ML-ready prospect, 1 prospect that, although well regarded, is only in A-ball (with some shaky peripherals to boot) and thus is a highly volatile commodity, and 1 30-YO reliever, but you can't fathom a realistic package from the Cubs that you'd prefer.

Yeah - that's a terrible package (well, not a package I'd take) for Bedard. I agree Dave. And it doesn't even sniff the value of Cueto, Votto + 1.

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Tough to say....I think I ultimately make the trade with the intention of trading Sherrill at the deadline.

I make that trade because of Jones.

So, if you were the GM, Bedard would likely still be an Oriole while you try to hold out for Jones, Clement, and Triunfel/Tillman. Disagree?

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So, if you were the GM, Bedard would likely still be an Oriole while you try to hold out for Jones, Clement, and Triunfel/Tillman. Disagree?

I dont get the Sherrill idea at all, forget the closer thing. A Sherrill deal would need to be lined up for me to accept him. The O's have plenty of bullpen arms now with the pitchers picked up in the Tejada deal & Beard.

I'd want

Jones, Clement, Tillman/Triunfel, & Chen

Jones, Triunfel, Tillman, & Chen

I think this would work and I think Jones is much better than Pie. If we could trade Scott for Clement I would do the second deal from above. Then flip Roberts for Murton, Gallagher, & Colvin.

We would be adding quality in the deal. IMO Murton is 25 not 30 so he better fits in out long term plans. The only other slot to fill would be ss & I'd be ok with dealing with LH if that was the weakest link in 2008. Thats presuming the Braves wouldn't take Walker for Lilliquist.

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