If we give up a draft pick for Kendrys Morales I will hammer a railroad spike through my head

[MrOrange82]

If you believe that the O's are so incompetent at drafting and development that you significantly discount the value of our picks and prospects compared to other teams, then you also believe there's no way (and I mean NO WAY) to build a winning team until that changes. You cannot build a winner off of free agent signings and trades alone. Drafting and development gives you your only pipeline for talent that provides actual surplus value, which is the only asset that has consistent trade value, and the only way to get to 90+ wins when a win in free agency costs upwards of 5M.

And the drafting and development woes have been seriously overblown.

If the success of the O's draft/development turns on whether the team sacrifices a single, mid/late first round pick, then yes...I have zero confidence in the O's to build from within.

But one pick in that slot should not spell disaster for the draft plans of a competent organization.

[Number5]

I feel like the title really says it all.

Half an offseason of missed opportunities, a weird and sort of embarrassing Grant Balfour non-signing, and frustrating general inaction I can handle, but being linked to what could easily be the least intelligent transaction of the offseason (except maybe signing Nelson Cruz, which I'm still afraid of) would enrage me.

It's like the O's think the new market inefficiency is avoiding leveraging market inefficiencies.

[video=vimeo;66753575]

[El Gordo]

If you think that's particularly valuable from a poor 1B defender who really should just DH, then...we have reached a fundamental difference and don't need to argue any more.

Given what we've gotten from DH over the last few years I'd be delighted with those numbers. And since Davis likes a rest at DH now and then, Morales would be handy as some one to fill in for him. He wasn't a poor defender when he played there for the Angels. It all depends in his contract. I wouldn't give up the pick for one year, or if we signed a place holder SP. But if I could get him for under 3/30M and we signed an Arroyo, Burnett or Garza I'd have to seriously think about it.

[mdbdotcom]

If you think that's particularly valuable from a poor 1B defender who really should just DH, then...we have reached a fundamental difference and don't need to argue any more.

Top 5 WAR for AL DH's in 2013 according to ESPN:

Ortiz - 4.4

Morales - 2.7

Butler - 1.5

Pujols - 1.5

Martinez - 1.2

I'm no expert on WAR, but I do know that more is better.

[SrMeowMeow]

League minimum for Morales, but 1/5M for Hart? Really?

You know Hart's only had two seasons with OBPs above .340, right (and one at .340 exactly)? In nine seasons (seven "full" seasons), his average is .334. Morales has played in seven seasons (three "full"), and his career average is .333. Morales' OBP in 2010, when he broke his leg, was .346. If Morales had kept that up, that would have left him with OBPs of .355, .346, .320, and .336 over his last 4 years. That lines up pretty close to Hart, whose last 4 years were .335, .340, .356, .334.

Particularly in light of the act that Hart's coming off a totally-missed 2013, I don't really get the gulf that separates the two players in your mind. I think Morales is likely to be worth 10M over the next couple of years. I wouldn't go above that, but I wouldn't be super pissed, either.

The gulf that separates the two players in my mind is that I don't see much of a gulf between them. But Morales has draft pick compensation attached and will probably more than double Hart's AAV over multiple years.

[MrOrange82]

The gulf that separates the two players in my mind is that I don't see much of a gulf between them. But Morales has draft pick compensation attached and will probably more than double Hart's AAV over multiple years.

All I can do is reiterate what I said on the last page. I think Morales will be worth such a contract, and I don't think that losing one mid/late first round pick should be something that makes or breaks the draft strategy of a competent team.

There's risk in every imaginable transaction, but Morales would likely improve the team. I'm not signing him for more than the 10-11M per year that I think he's likely to earn on the field, and I wouldn't sign him for, say, 14-15M per year, but sacrificing one pick in that draft slot for a fairly reasonable contract over a limited period (e.g., two years) shouldn't be the sort of thing that drives fans crazy, IMO.

[Ommaculate]

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'd be fine with something like 3/30 for Morales and would not drive a railroad spike through my head. Have to wonder if he'd pass the physical, but maybe that'll come first this time.

[mdbdotcom]

I'd be fine with something like 3/30 for Morales and would not drive a railroad spike through my head. Have to wonder if he'd pass the physical, but maybe that'll come first this time.

And if you trade him after year 1 for a decent ML, you don't lose anything by giving up the 17th pick.

[orioles119]

Reminds me of Phineas Gage... does this mean that SrMeowMeow is going to get more grumpier?

[atomic]

Top 5 WAR for AL DH's in 2013 according to ESPN:

Ortiz - 4.4

Morales - 2.7

Butler - 1.5

Pujols - 1.5

Martinez - 1.2

I'm no expert on WAR, but I do know that more is better.

Yeah and Morales should have increased production moving to Camden Yards can play DH every day so you don't have to have a platoon and he has a decent OBP and doesn't strike out a ton. I think he would be a good addition to the team. I am all for signing him but I doubt it is the draft pick holding us back..more likely the salary demands.

[weams]

I feel like the title really says it all.

Half an offseason of missed opportunities, a weird and sort of embarrassing Grant Balfour non-signing, and frustrating general inaction I can handle, but being linked to what could easily be the least intelligent transaction of the offseason (except maybe signing Nelson Cruz, which I'm still afraid of) would enrage me.

It's like the O's think the new market inefficiency is avoiding leveraging market inefficiencies.

It appears that you may be working that spike.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yeah and Morales should have increased production moving to Camden Yards can play DH every day so you don't have to have a platoon and he has a decent OBP and doesn't strike out a ton. I think he would be a good addition to the team.

You'd expect the raw numbers to increase, but theoretically the WAR wouldn't change. But it doesn't always work out that way. Ask Adrian Beltre.

I am all for signing him but I doubt it is the draft pick holding us back..more likely the salary demands.

You may be right.

[mcgraw238]

Giving up a pick for a mediocre player like Morales is very poor especially when the team limits the methods in which it acquires talent. I'd feel different if the O's were active in the International market, etc. Most teams are inclined to pay extra to avoid losing a pick, I'm sure the O's see giving up a pick as an opportunity to save a few marbles.

[weams]

Giving up a pick for a mediocre player like Morales is very poor especially when the team limits the methods in which it acquires talent. I'd feel different if the O's were active in the International market, etc. Most teams are inclined to pay extra to avoid losing a pick, I'm sure the O's see giving up a pick as an opportunity to save a few marbles.

Unfortunately, there is no option of spending marbles to save a pick here.