New Fangraphs article "The Orioles Stars and Scrubs Problem"

[weams]

OK, please help me with the idea of what 1 WAR is worth in the market.

Early in the piece it says we have 15 WAR in our top 5 guys and need 25 more WAR to be championship caliber. In other words, you need 40 WAR to be championship caliber.

If 1 WAR costs $6M, that means we need a $240M payroll to be considered championship caliber???

Yes I understand that the way around this is young cheap players that we're not paying for on the open market. But doesn't that indicate that free agents are simply absurdly overpaid? If we're going to have a $100M budget then we really have no choice but to continuously trade our top pricey assets to replentish the supply of young, cheap talent over and above what our draft/sign/develop pipeline can provide.

Championship Caliber. World Series Winner. Starting Pitching. Starting Pitching. Starting Pitching.

You build a competitive team, you try to make the playoffs. You win more games than you lose. Then you roll the die in the second season. Because that is what it it is. Luck, good fortune, starting pitching. Fluke home runs. Bobbled double play balls. Lucky guesses.

A Marathon. And then a sprint.

[scOtt]

Championship Caliber. World Series Winner. Starting Pitching. Starting Pitching. Starting Pitching.

You build a competitive team, you try to make the playoffs. You win more games than you lose. Then you roll the die in the second season. Because that is what it it is. Luck, good fortune, starting pitching. Fluke home runs. Bobbled double play balls. Lucky guesses.

A Marathon. And then a sprint.

That's why I agree that that 40 WAR is like the minimum. Get that at least, and then anything can happen in the postseason. Roll the dice.

[25 Nuggets]

I think we can stay put with 2B and LF - both positions should be able to give us 1-2 fWAR based on our internal options. But we are really lacking at DH. I think Pearce is a perfectly reasonable RH complement for DH to put up 0.5-1 fWAR in part time, but we really need the LH complement to give us the additional 1.5-2 fWAR. Urrutia has not shown enough to be counted on as that guy yet. If we do get that DH piece, I think our position players will be about as good as they were last year, and then it comes down to pitching.

I agree. As it stands right now, I believe the Orioles will get negative WAR production out of the DH position.

[Frobby]

I agree. As it stands right now, I believe the Orioles will get negative WAR production out of the DH position.

I'm higher on Urrutia than you guys, and if Reimold is healthy, he hits RHP very well. I certainly realize that Urrutia is unproven and Reimold is a proven injury risk who has been inconsistent in his production despite decent overall numbers, so I can see going to get someone who provides more certainty, but I won't freak out if we go with the existing options rather than spending a draft pick to sign a non-star free agent.

[weams]

I'm higher on Urrutia than you guys, and if Reimold is healthy, he hits RHP very well. I certainly realize that Urrutia is unproven and Reimold is a proven injury risk who has been inconsistent in his production despite decent overall numbers, so I can see going to get someone who provides more certainty, but I won't freak out if we go with the existing options rather than spending a draft pick to sign a non-star free agent.

Hank Rocks. I'm with you.

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah bros, a no-power, opposite field singles hitter is so awesome. Gonna be a 5 WAR player.

That's a lot of singles.

[Frobby]

Just a general comment: for most teams, and certainly the Orioles, it's simply the case that in order to make the playoffs, they will have to get some good performances from players who are "unproven." Tillman, Gonzalez, and Davis are three examples of guys who were in the "unproven" category going into the 2012 season, and who now are "proven" to some extent. There are many players now on the roster who aren't "proven" but could provide a big boost if they step up, and who seem to have at least some potential to do so. For me, half the fun of following a baseball team is watching players suddenly blossom or provide an unexpectedly good performance.

[Frobby]

Yeah bros, a no-power, opposite field singles hitter is so awesome. Gonna be a 5 WAR player.

Nobody is saying Urrutia will be a 5 WAR player (I assume that's who you are referring to). Do you think Cruz or Morales will be?

For me, the jury is out on whether Urrutia will prove to be purely a singles hitter. He wasn't purely a singles hitter in the minors or the AFL, and as I've mentioned many times, this is a guy who hadn't played organized baseball in two years and wasn't in the best environment for conditioning or nutrition over those two years, either. I'm not going to pigeonhole him based on 58 major league plate appearances in his first year of playing baseball in the U.S.

[Can_of_corn]

Nobody is saying Urrutia will be a 5 WAR player (I assume that's who you are referring to). Do you think Cruz or Morales will be?

For me, the jury is out on whether Urrutia will prove to be purely a singles hitter. He wasn't in the minors or the AFL, and as I've mentioned many times, this is a guy who hadn't played organized baseball in two years and wasn't in the best environment for conditioning or nutrition over those two years, either.

Couldn't the same be said, to a degree, of Cespedes and Puig? Word was that Puig was in terrible shape when he came over.

[weams]

Nobody is saying Urrutia will be a 5 WAR player (I assume that's who you are referring to). Do you think Cruz or Morales will be?

For me, the jury is out on whether Urrutia will prove to be purely a singles hitter. He wasn't in the minors or the AFL, and as I've mentioned many times, this is a guy who hadn't played organized baseball in two years and wasn't in the best environment for conditioning or nutrition over those two years, either.

I think if Hank is given 120 games, he will be a 1 WAR player. But even more accurately, since we have no idea whether any of those guys would ever pick up a glove, I suspect Henry will hit .320 with an OBP of .360 and a .730 OPS.

[weams]

Couldn't the same be said, to a degree, of Cespedes and Puig? Word was that Puig was in terrible shape when he came over.

Cespedes and Puig did not have to sit in Haiti for a year. After having to sit out the previous year because of a failed attempt to get here. I met Henry the day after he arrived in the USA. He was quite thin. Last time I saw him, he appeared to have gain 25 lbs.

[Stotle]

To start with the guy can't count. He says a contender needs a 40 WAR.

Let's take his numbers and count.

5 Manny

4 Wieters/ Clevenger

3 Jones

3 Hardy

3 Davis

That's 18

1 Nick

1 Flaherty

That's 20

3 Tillman

2 Chen

2 Norris

2 Gonzo

2 Gausman

Add 11; now at 31

3 pen

That 34

2.4 for Lough

That's 36.4

Now add

4 Burnett

That 40.4 which is over his 40 to contend

1.3 Rodney

That's 41.7

So if the O's can continue on the path they are on and sign Burnett and Rodney they are contenders according to this guy. No offensive signing needed.

That's a lot going right, nothing going wrong, and no injuries.

[Frobby]

Couldn't the same be said, to a degree, of Cespedes and Puig? Word was that Puig was in terrible shape when he came over.

Cespedes and Puig did not have to sit in Haiti for a year.

Correct. But let's not kid ourselves, there's a reason those guys signed 8-figure contracts and Urrutia signed for an $800 k bonus.

[scOtt]

I'm higher on Urrutia than you guys, and if Reimold is healthy, he hits RHP very well. I certainly realize that Urrutia is unproven and Reimold is a proven injury risk who has been inconsistent in his production despite decent overall numbers, so I can see going to get someone who provides more certainty, but I won't freak out if we go with the existing options rather than spending a draft pick to sign a non-star free agent.

I'm pretty high on Urrutia too. He's no slap hitter. He's shown that in the minors. His glove must hold him back but he's got some power. He's come a long way this entire odyssey to the Orioles. A lot of distractions. He'll come along with time. He'll get on top of ML pitching. I think.

[mdbdotcom]

Correct. But let's not kid ourselves, there's a reason those guys signed 8-figure contracts and Urrutia signed for an $800 k bonus.

He's no good at counting zeroes?