Does anyone believe the payroll with be $100 million?

[scOtt]

A smart team could have picked Trout at 17.

He walked into that one!

[Austin]

Mid to late. It's in the 2nd half of the draft. Who was the last great player drafted 17th? Anyone know?

Is this post serious? You don't think good players are drafted after the 17th pick in the draft? Mike Trout was drafted with the 25th pick.

[Ibanezsondajuice]

I looked up the last ten #17 picks. Seven guys who I've never heard of. The top 30% of the last ten were Josh Sale, AJ Pollock and Blake Beaven. Not great. The odds of getting Mike Trout are what? Not very good.

[Austin]

I looked up the last ten #17 picks. Seven guys who I've never heard of. The top 30% of the last ten were Josh Sale, AJ Pollock and Blake Beaven. Not great. The odds of getting Mike Trout are what? Not very good.

Why are you only looking at #17 picks and not everyone drafted #17 and later?

Seriously, there is plenty of talent after the 17th pick. Mike Piazza was drafted in the freaking 62nd round.

[mdbdotcom]

I looked up the last ten #17 picks. Seven guys who I've never heard of. The top 30% of the last ten were Josh Sale, AJ Pollock and Blake Beaven. Not great. The odds of getting Mike Trout are what? Not very good.

But they are significantly better than if you give up the pick. And, once you have him, the odds don't matter.

[Can_of_corn]

I looked up the last ten #17 picks. Seven guys who I've never heard of. The top 30% of the last ten were Josh Sale, AJ Pollock and Blake Beaven. Not great. The odds of getting Mike Trout are what? Not very good.

Right because it makes more sense to see who was picked exactly at 17 then who was picked after the 16th pick.

Chris Davis- 5th Round

Adam Jones- 37th Pick

Chris Tillman- 2nd Round

JJ Hardy- 2nd Round

And that is just members of the O's "core".

[Ibanezsondajuice]

Ok look up 16th. How many misses to get those 4 guys? I'd rather have Nelson Cruz than a 5% at the next JJ Hardy or whatever.

[Can_of_corn]

Ok look up 16th. How many misses to get those 4 guys? I'd rather have Nelson Cruz than a 5% at the next JJ Hardy or whatever.

You would rather have a 2 win (at best) DH making substantial money then a chance (much better then 5%) of a guy that is cost controlled for 6+ seasons?

[AlbionHero]

Once you get beyond the top 5 or so picks, its pretty much a crapshoot in the MLB draft. You can often get a guy with just as much potential in the 3rd or 4th round then mid 1st round... scouting is such an inexact science in baseball that its tough to worry about draft spot that much.

[Ibanezsondajuice]

Exactly. Yes I'd rather have the proven player. The odds of the #17 pick being productive for the Orioles are pretty low.

[Can_of_corn]

Exactly. Yes I'd rather have the proven player. The odds of the #17 pick being productive for the Orioles are pretty low.

Yea, proven to be a 2 win guy (optimistically). If we were talking about an actually talented player I could see the other side of the coin. Not a two win DH.

[Austin]

Yea, proven to be a 2 win guy (optimistically). If we were talking about an actually talented player I could see the other side of the coin. Not a two win DH.

Yeah, I don't mind losing the pick for someone more valuable than Cruz. To say that there is no talent after the 16th pick in the draft is nonsense, though.

[Ibanezsondajuice]

Also none of the guys mentioned above was drafted by the Orioles. Who was the guy the O's drafted outside the top 12 or so that's been productive for the Orioles? I can't think of anyone on the current roster.

[weams]

A smart team could have picked Trout at 17.

Or at #1

[Ibanezsondajuice]

I didn't say there was no talent. But your odds of picking one is not great. I don't think they've done it since Brian Roberts have they?