PECOTA hates us

[BohKnowsBmore]

While we may not like the PECOTA projections, at least they have a method. Just looked at the 3/31 issue of SI with their baseball preview. For starters, they predict that the O's will finish 10th in the AL, which I may not agree with, but whatever. They project the O's to be a below-average offense, scoring 651 runs versus a league-average of 694 runs. I don't see how we are set to be a poor offense with what we've added (Nelson Cruz and David Lough) compared to what we've lost (Nate McLouth). The biggest problem, is the sloppiness. They project our players' RBIs as follows:

Nick Markakis (RF) - 66

Manny Machado (3B) - 68

Adam Jones (CF) - 95

Chris Davis (1B) - 112

Nelson Cruz (DH) - 87

Matt Wieters © - 79

J.J. Hardy (SS) - 67

David Lough (LF) - 39

Jemile Weeks (2B) - 23

Ryan Flaherty (2B) - 35

Xavier Paul (OF) - 22

Those 11 players' numbers add up to 693. I checked to see if the 694 league average was actually the O's projection, but no, it's the league average they use for all AL teams. Further, reading their write-up, it seems that there is nothing but positives about the O's offense. It's like they added up and used an Orioles adjustment to knock the total down.

[Spy Fox]

Davis .801 OPS

Flaherty .686

Weeks .687

Hardy .692

Machado .721

Lough .668

Jones .775

Markakis .738

Wieters .729

Reimold .735

Urrutia .731

Young .721

Team OPS: .722.

They have Davis hitting 26 HR with 79 RBI. And playing 75% of the time.

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA

Tillman 4.18

Gonzalez 4.05

Norris 4.59

Gausman 3.86

Overall, PECOTA projects us as a 75 win team that will score 686 runs and allow 746.

Well through 1/3 of the season our team OPS is .728, not that much above this number that a lot of us scoffed at earlier in the year. BUT, at least in my eyes most signs would point to our offense improving as the year goes on. Hopefully we can continue to widen the margin over this projection!

[Spy Fox]

I would love Davis to have an .801 OPS.

Me too. But Davis is actually at .764, which believe it or not is the third highest on the team behind Cruz and Pearce. Because he actually takes walks.

[bobmc]

Where do we plug in Reimold's .735 when he returns?

[Phantom]

So when will the people from the three previous pages be coming back and apologizing?

Didn't the last election teach you to never, EVER take on the nerds?

[Can_of_corn]

So when will the people from the three previous pages be coming back and apologizing?

Didn't the last election teach you to never, EVER take on the nerds?

I guess as long as PECTO doesn't try and do Cricket projections they will be OK.

[weams]

So when will the people from the three previous pages be coming back and apologizing?

Didn't the last election teach you to never, EVER take on the nerds?

Only Nate Silver. Only Nate.

[Can_of_corn]

Only Nate Silver. Only Nate.

And only Nate when he has inside sources of information.

Like I said, how did he do in the English elections? Oops not so well.

[weams]

And only Nate when he has inside sources of information.

Like I said, how did he do in the English elections? Oops not so well.

True. Insider info helps.

[Phantom]

And only Nate when he has inside sources of information.

Like I said, how did he do in the English elections? Oops not so well.

Agreed. If all his predictions aren't always perfect, clearly they are all terrible and should not be trusted.

[Can_of_corn]

Agreed. If all his predictions aren't always perfect, clearly they are all terrible and should not be trusted.

Dude.

He had access to Obama camp polls that no other prognosticator had access to. Pardon me if I am suspicious about his results.

When he doesn't have access to that level of inside information his performance drops.

[Frobby]

So when will the people from the three previous pages be coming back and apologizing?

Didn't the last election teach you to never, EVER take on the nerds?

1/3 of a season isn't a season. I'll still take the over by a good margin.

[Roll Tide]

Davis .801 OPS

Flaherty .686

Weeks .687

Hardy .692

Machado .721

Lough .668

Jones .775

Markakis .738

Wieters .729

Reimold .735

Urrutia .731

Young .721

Team OPS: .722.

They have Davis hitting 26 HR with 79 RBI. And playing 75% of the time.

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA

Tillman 4.18

Gonzalez 4.05

Norris 4.59

Gausman 3.86

Overall, PECOTA projects us as a 75 win team that will score 686 runs and allow 746.

Based on the number of games where they have scored three runs or less what do you expect?

[weams]

1/3 of a season isn't a season. I'll still take the over by a good margin.

Me too. Over.

[DrungoHazewood]

Based on the number of games where they have scored three runs or less what do you expect?

Why would you ignore the times they've scored more than three, or projections going forward?