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PECOTA hates us


Frobby

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Dude.

He had access to Obama camp polls that no other prognosticator had access to. Pardon me if I am suspicious about his results.

When he doesn't have access to that level of inside information his performance drops.

So your argument is based on a poorly sourced report that he might have had some inside info in 2008 only? Please tell me that is not your case.

1/3 of a season isn't a season. I'll still take the over by a good margin.

Agreed on both accounts actually. My point is, we need to stop reacting to objective projections as if they are ridiculous in some way. They are good at what they do for a reason.

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By the way, as of today the Orioles are 7th in the AL in runs per game (4.35) and 5th in OPS (.733). They have the highest BA in the league (.268) but their walk rate is the lowest, hence they are still only 9th in OBP (.320).

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By the way, as of today the Orioles are 7th in the AL in runs per game (4.35) and 5th in OPS (.733). They have the highest BA in the league (.268) but their walk rate is the lowest, hence they are still only 9th in OBP (.320).

6th in wOBA, which is encouraging. We also have the highest batting average (tied with the Tigers) which is just strange.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Davis .801 OPS

Flaherty .686

Weeks .687

Hardy .692

Machado .721

Lough .668

Jones .775

Markakis .738

Wieters .729

Reimold .735

Urrutia .731

Young .721

Team OPS: .722.

They have Davis hitting 26 HR with 79 RBI. And playing 75% of the time.

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA

Tillman 4.18

Gonzalez 4.05

Norris 4.59

Gausman 3.86

Overall, PECOTA projects us as a 75 win team that will score 686 runs and allow 746.

Just about halfway through the season - how do we stack up?

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Just about halfway through the season - how do we stack up?

Seems to me PECOTA is doing very well at the individual level. However, the team OPS is 20 points higher than PECOTA projected and the team is allowing far fewer runs than projected. Hence, we are on pace for 86 wins, not 75.

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Davis .801 OPS .727

Flaherty .686 .633

Weeks .687 only 11 AB

Hardy .692 .698

Machado .721 .662

Lough .668 .555

Jones .775 .840

Markakis .738 .755

Wieters .729 replacements: HUN: .590 JOS: .552

Reimold .735 NA

Urrutia .731 NA

Young .721 .805

Cruz - .916

Team: .722 .742

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA 4.19

Tillman 4.18 4.21

Gonzalez 4.05 4.56

Norris 4.59 3.62

Gausman 3.86 3.86

Jimenez 4.31

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The biggest X-factors here:

1) Cruz, without him I don't know where this team would be.

2) Jones' prediction was laughable when it came out and it still is.

3) Markakis has had a very consistent, strong season.

Don't forget Pearce, not even listed in the OP.

I don't think the projection for Jones was that laughable, though I am glad he is beating it handily at the moment. Not any more laughable than Davis, a priori, though Davis is actually underperforming his projection by a susbtantial margin at the moment.

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Don't forget Pearce, not even listed in the OP.

Yeah I was going back through the thread and I realized, Pearce has been great.

Basically he has been our 2013 Daniel Nava. I sincerely doubt he continues to hit at an .983 OPS, but he has done so well in playing in about half the games that unless he just goes into the tank in the second half he will end up being a big contributor.

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Basically the Orioles are where they are for a couple reasons:

1) Davis' injury (I still think he is feeling his oblique) and Wieters' loss has been covered well by Cruz, Jones, and Pearce.

2) I am going to assume that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are all well, well under their early season projections. Even the Jays don't look invincible, the days of AL East hegemony may be over, for a couple years at least.

3)The defense has been stellar and kept a league average, at best, rotation in many games.

Why to expect more in the second half:

1) I don't believe Davis has simply forgotten how to hit, He won't hit 40, but he could still hit in the mid 30's, especially if he goes on the type of tear he is capable of. Looking at his 2012 season, he is essentially on that pace (had 13 on 6/30, hit 14 on 7/2).

2) The rotation has really stabilized since its early struggles. Jimenez and Gonzo have been the weakest links.

3) Dylan Bundy is lurking

4) Manny Machado will likely improve. Missing ST and the first month, not easy to bounce right back from.

Why to expect collapse:

1) Davis' recent slump - he has looked totally lost

2) The rotation as a unit is still going to be prone to stretches of futility, as will the offense that relies way too much on the home run ball.

3) Missing Wieters will eventually be felt.

4) Steve Pearce will not continue to OPS over .900

Of course, I will still take the over on 75 wins (the preseason projection). To match that the Orioles would have to go 30-48 the rest of the way.

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Davis, during his second half slump, struck out at roughly the same percentage (31.6% 2nd half 2013 vs 30.6% career) walked a ton more 12.1% vs 7.7% career) and still hit 16 HRs in 65 games. The main reason his numbers took a minor dive was because his BABIP was below his career average (.309 vs .335). I think he still showed most of the skills that made him the elite hitter his 2nd half even if the numbers weren't all there.

I would have really liked for him to continue the gains he made in plate discipline last April/May to transfer going forward, but he seriously regressed there. Even with his regression in this department, I don't see how you can project him for .801 OPS and 26 HRs unless you seriously think he's only going to play 130 games. Even if you consider his weak ML numbers as a 23 and 24 year old, you have to put some weight in his MiL numbers, during that time period, which were strong.

Which can be attributed to the increased amount of defensive shifts he faced.

In other words I don't think the lower BABIP was the result of luck.

There may be something to that, as his BABIP on grounders was terrible. I think that the difference between his 'expected' babip and his actual last season was quite high, however. Also, the shift can only happen with no runners on. So I still believe that his BABIP will rebound given enough games.

That said, he might benefit from bunting down the 3rd base line once in a while if he goes up with no one on base.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/34412/those-ortiz-shifts-they-do-hurt

"No American League hitter was impacted more by shifts than Orioles slugger Chris Davis. With no shift, Davis had a .425 BABIP and a 17 percent extra-base hit rate (not including homers). Against the shift, his BABIP was .302 (123 percentage points less) and his extra-base hit percentage dropped to 10.1 percent."

I believe Davis faced the infield shift all season, so I don't believe the 2nd half is representative of more shifts than the 1st half. Also, without information on his BABIP on groundballs against infield shifts and on normal infields, it's hard for me to gauge the magnitude that the shift had against Davis.

edit to add: Davis doesn't hit too many grounders, so I have a bit of a hard time believing that his overall BABIP would be affected by 100 points due to a defensive alignment that only affects 32% of his batted valls.

It's interesting to revisit this discussion at the halfway point. The shift is clearly having a major impact on Davis. Just in the last three games, he has hit three scorching liners into RF that were turned into outs due to the shift. That's not his only problem, but it's a major factor in his low BA.

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It's interesting to revisit this discussion at the halfway point. The shift is clearly having a major impact on Davis. Just in the last three games, he was hit three scorching liners into RF that were turned into outs due to the shift. That's not his only problem, but it's a major factor in his low BA.

His BABIP is significantly lower then his career numbers.

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