Assuming we use a draft pick to get Jimenez or Santana, shall we go ahead and get Morales?

[srock]

True, but the inputs that go into WAR are essentially the core of what goes into projection systems.

I would think projection systems take those inputs and apply statistical analysis to generate likely outcomes?

Do they publish confidence intervals on there projections? I think that would be more relatively then just spitting out a OPS.

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[weams]

I would think projection systems take those inputs and apply statistical analysis to generate likely outcomes?

Do they publish confidence intervals on there projections? I think that would be more relatively then just spitting out a OPS.

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I have a confidence interval that the Orioles will win all the games.

[Frobby]

I would think projection systems take those inputs and apply statistical analysis to generate likely outcomes?

Do they publish confidence intervals on there projections? I think that would be more relatively then just spitting out a OPS.

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PECOTA does. It gives a range of projections and also give a percentage likeliood of a "breakout" or "collapse."

[srock]

PECOTA does. It gives a range of projections and also give a percentage likeliood of a "breakout" or "collapse."

Interesting. I need to take a look at those sometime.

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[jamesenoch]

I would advocate on getting Morales and then going on a spending spree in the International Signing Period to compensate for the loss of the first 3 draft picks.

[Frobby]

Well, I wasn't far off on this one, though it seemed a bit far-fetched on Febuary 10 when this thread was started. I still would have preferred Morales, but at least Cruz didn't cost much or tie us up for a long period of time.

[weams]

Well, I wasn't far off on this one, though it seemed a bit far-fetched on Febuary 10 when this thread was started. I still would have preferred Morales, but at least Cruz didn't most much or tie us up for a long period of time.

It's a bargain that you just can't pass up there.