Yoon, Santana & Morales-Good Offseason?

[Stotle]

If either of those things happen your 3/36 with ideas of trading him won't look so good either.

Well that's the deal with any contract. I don't understand what point you are trying to make. My suggestion carries risk of injury or non-performance in exchange for cost-control and certainty over more valuable years than I'd be dealing with if negotiating next winter. I can absolutely see why Hardy would take another 36 MM guaranteed right now rather than risk a bad 2014 and having no real market for his services next year.

Good luck getting the Peralta deal? I hear a team in NY might be looking for a SS next year.

Yup. Good luck with that. Hardy for 4/53 or Brendan Ryan (who's already signed for $2 MM) and lots of extra money to spend elsewhere.

[weams]

Absolutely. My feeling is that Hardy is 9 months away from a 4-5 year deal that could set him up through age 36/37. That could very well be the last big contract of his career. I think it's doubtful he takes a 3/36 (according to Stotle, starting this year in place of his last year of current contract). That gives him security one year ahead of time but he takes less money and really gets two extra years. Then he's a FA again at age 33/34. He may or may not be setup for a big contract at that time. In any case, I think if Hardy resigns here it's because he wants to stay in Balitmore. I think he takes a little less but he'll insist on no trade protection, probably full NT for one year and partial for at least one more. My preference is to make Hardy the qualifying offer after the season, assuming he has a good season, and take the pick, and move Manny to SS for the 2015 season. I'm not saying one way is right or another way is wrong. I just don't see Hardy signing for 3/36 without NT protection.

If he re-signs here. it is because of Larry Hodges.

[Stotle]

Absolutely. My feeling is that Hardy is 9 months away from a 4-5 year deal that could set him up through age 36/37. That could very well be the last big contract of his career. I think it's doubtful he takes a 3/36 (according to Stotle, starting this year in place of his last year of current contract). That gives him security one year ahead of time but he takes less money and really gets two extra years. Then he's a FA again at age 33/34. He may or may not be setup for a big contract at that time. In any case, I think if Hardy resigns here it's because he wants to stay in Balitmore. I think he takes a little less but he'll insist on no trade protection, probably full NT for one year and partial for at least one more. My preference is to make Hardy the qualifying offer after the season, assuming he has a good season, and take the pick, and move Manny to SS for the 2015 season. I'm not saying one way is right or another way is wrong. I just don't see Hardy signing for 3/36 without NT protection.

To be fair, if he's healthy he's essentially getting an extension of 3/40 plus a 3 MM bump in this year's salary. Remember I said I'd include a vesting option for 14 MM or whatever. Maybe you reach an agreement regarding limited NT. Would have to think about it, as well as 10-5 considerations.

[Stotle]

You seriously see the Yanks heading into the 2015 season with Mario Mendoza's poor hitting cousin as their starting SS. 5M is nothing to the Yanks. Or should I say 2M is nothing to the Yanks.

Nope. But they have their baseline, and I'd think Hanley Ramirez looks pretty good to them right about now. Jed Lowrie is younger and had a pretty nice year last year -- FA in 2015. Asdrubal Cabrera is one bounce back away from a nice contract next winter.

Just saying Hardy shouldn't start looking for NYC apartments.

[srock]

Yoon, Santana, and Morales.

It really depends on the contracts because losing two draft picks hurts. Although, you could argue signing Yoon and the two teenagers offsets the draft picks a bit. Maybe through more money into international free agents.

Also, losing a 1st and a 2nd rounder is theoretically better value then losing a 1st this year AND a 1st next year.

Morales does help the offense from an OBP standpoint, but he hurts it due to flexibility issues. For the right deal, you sign him. Especially if he only get a 1 year deal, then you let him walk next year for a pick!

I'll have to be happy with that offseason, but its not what I wanted. Garza and Omar Infante were my targets.

[mskrulz]

Would you sign anyone else at this point? I would only sign Morales if we sign Santana.

Yes, the picks sting-but the window to win is narrow.

YES!!!! Who knows what happens with Davis and Wieters in the next few years. Do you remember 1983 for the O's or 85, 86,87?

Take a chance for once! We have a good core lets do something with it!

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yoon, Santana, and Morales.

It really depends on the contracts because losing two draft picks hurts. Although, you could argue signing Yoon and the two teenagers offsets the draft picks a bit. Maybe through more money into international free agents.

Also, losing a 1st and a 2nd rounder is theoretically better value then losing a 1st this year AND a 1st next year.

Morales does help the offense from an OBP standpoint, but he hurts it due to flexibility issues. For the right deal, you sign him. Especially if he only get a 1 year deal, then you let him walk next year for a pick!

I'll have to be happy with that offseason, but its not what I wanted. Garza and Omar Infante were my targets.

Just out of curiosity, if teams are hesitating to sign him now with the pick considered, what makes you think he'll turn down a QO next offseason or that another team would sign him and forfeit the pick?

[LA2]

Santana and Morales just aint gonna happen. Best to stop setting yrself up for disappointment.

[Rene88]

Anyone hear anything new on Santana today? Nothing really new I can find on Twitter.

[gpolee]

We'd have to give up 2 picks under that scenario.

I would prefer to keep the picks and sign Capuano or Saunders. The reason is I don't think addition of Santana is going to put us over the edge in itself. I really feel like Santana and Jimenez are free agent duds...I know they had good years last year but I don't buy it. If the Orioles are winning this year then it will be because of the core players performing well. I like idea the idea of a lot of financial flexibility going into the season so that we could focus on needs as they arise and hopefully take on contracts of players on losing teams.

I consider this a lost off-season regardless...there were so many opportunities to improve and all the good ones are gone.

... which contract(s) would you have surpassed to add any of the free agents who have signed already? I can't say I would have advised topping any of them. Most of the signings look like bad deals to me.

[fastball]

The whole thing is if we don't improve the team today were the same as last year or less. If we go to the draft pick it won't be long term.This team doesn't keep player's nor well they pay them,it's sad but that's how they operate. Wait and see what happens to Hardy,Davis and Weiters.PA and DD play the wait and see game and there gone.

[Three Run Homer]

I definitely don't want to give up two picks. I don't think Morales is good enough to give up a pick for, even a 2nd round pick.

If the O's think Yoon can be a mid-rotation starter this season, then I'd prefer that they sign Madson or Hanrahan. I think the closer position will be a problem for the Orioles all season if they don't sign anyone else for the bullpen.

[Three Run Homer]

... which contract(s) would you have surpassed to add any of the free agents who have signed already? I can't say I would have advised topping any of them. Most of the signings look like bad deals to me.

Bartolo Colon at 2/20 was a steal. Tim Hudson at 2/23 was a steal. Mujica was a steal. Corey Hart was a steal. The O's should have been willing to top any of those deals.

[SteveA]

... which contract(s) would you have surpassed to add any of the free agents who have signed already? I can't say I would have advised topping any of them. Most of the signings look like bad deals to me.

So, if your choice is:

-- marginally improve the team but it's a "bad deal" and you pay too much

or

-- do not improve the team

Which do you choose? If you don't make the "bad deal", what is your confidence level that the money saved by not overpaying is going to be used in some fashion to improve the team (international signings, player development, etc)? The Orioles, like other MLB teams, got an influx of $25+ million in TV money this year. They clearly haven't put it into major league payroll. Do you honestly believe they have plowed that $25M into improving the farm system, player development, etc.? Or do you think it is simply going into the owner's pocket?

[gpolee]

Ervin Santana allows a ton of homers. Jimenez gives up way too many BBs. Both have been inconsistent. Those factors are more important than the draft pick when determining their likely contributions. Saunders makes sense (Patton suspended = need another lefty in the pen + Saunders can spot start) but what about taking a chance on Johan Santana!?