Does Jeter's pending retirement raise the price of a JJ Hardy extension?

[weams]

Cracking himself in the head caused his back and leg problems?

It is not like the concussion issues were the only injuries Roberts had to deal with.

The back came first. Then muscles. Then hammy. Then head. Then head. Then head. Then head. Then neck. Then hammy.

[BradyBunch]

I think they put him at second because second is the valuable position. Schoop has also played a fair bit of short and no one thought he would stick there.

Jesus Montero stayed at Catcher for his minor league career despite being atrocious at it.

I wouldn't read too much into where folks play in the minors.

LOL, okay. Ignore players are type cast to positions they've played in the minors, college ball, high school ball... I'll remember that when Matt Weiters is the #5 starter and Chris Davis is catching. :thumbsup1:

[BradyBunch]

Yeah, it screwed up Manny's timetable something awful. If Hardy isn't extended, Schoop should get plenty of time at 3B this year in Norfolk, IMO.

Like I said.. comparing to Manny to School is unfair. Manny had natural talent and OVER-preformed when he came up. So much the O's were surprised how well he did.

[Stotle]

Manny over-preformed at the position because well he has huge natural talent. Comparing Machado to Schoop in making a switch is disservice to Manny and Schoop.

Schoop was put at 2nd by the O's farm system for a reason. They like him better at 2nd and not 3rd. But most reports are split on 2nd and 3rd. His ability shows he can do both but he's had most his games at 2nd. So he'd be average to plus defended at 2nd.. today. 2 years down in the minors he could be average to plus at 3rd.

He's not average to plus a second today. He might be able to develop into an average defender. But plus?

[BradyBunch]

The Orioles would never pay that money. Can you imagine the worry here about his weight?

I was just pointing out he was on the market next year. The amount of times a topic of PA is beaten to death, Sandoval just has to come here to get his work out. :smile11:

[Stotle]

Of course.. but that's why you have a contract. A contract can say if he doesn't "make" weight... X, Y, Z can happen. Giants were dumb to not put that in the contract he signed 3 years ago.

I don't believe you are permitted to put weight qualifiers in the contract -- and I am certain no player would agree to something that says (if you get fat you don't get all your money).

[weams]

You can't include weigh in incentives?

[Frobby]

Cracking himself in the head caused his back and leg problems?

It is not like the concussion issues were the only injuries Roberts had to deal with.

You are right, I overstated that part of my case. I still don't like using the BRob comparison, because he is far from the typical case.

Here's a post of mine from an earlier thread on this topic.

Here are a couple of really good studies of how infield range and efficiency declines with age:

Camden Depot: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2010...urves.html?m=1

Tom Tango: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-aging-curves/

Both studies show that range and/or efficiency declines pretty significantly between peak (age 27-28) and 32. In the Camden Depot study, SS defense declined about 1.4 wins in that period, and there wasn't enough data to reach conclusions about SS over age 32. In Tango's study, the rate of drop in range/efficiency actually slowed significantly between ages 32-34, dropping only about 7 plays (probably about half a win) during that three year stretch.

I have done some anectdotal looking at a number of shortstops who had high similarity ratings through age 30 (the two Alex Gonzalez's, Orlando Cabrera) and some elite guys (Ripken, Jeter, Tejada, Vizquel), and overall their defensive value held up very well through age 34.

My bottom line is that I don't expect Hardy to be as good at ages 32-34 (2015-17) as he was at ages 28-30 (the three years we've had him so far). But Hardy has been elite for those three years, and I think he's got 2-3 more years of being significantly above average and then he'll be average for a bit. He's been worth 11.2 rWAR (6.1 dWAR), 10.3 fWAR (27.2 UZR) in those three years. Put him down for 6-9 WAR from 2015-17 and pay him accordingly.

[Stotle]

You can't include weigh in incentives?

I think you can tie a bonus to it, but not deduct pay, right?

[Stotle]

That's kind of semantics though.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/21604845/phillies-include-weight-clauses-in-delmon-youngs-contract

Fair enough re: semantics, but in practice it matters, right? A bonus for a couple hundred thousand or an actual means to try and curtail weight gain via large chunk of compensation being tied to weight. I mean, for the total amount of money Sandoval gets on his next deal, do we think BAL is really hedging by saying "You aren't going to get this extra $600K each year unless you make weight"? And is Sandoval, on say a six year deal, going to agree to tie a large portion of his compensation to what he weighs four years from now? That's not going to fly.

I think suggesting that to a player is probably a nice way to make agents less likely to take your calls seriously in the future.

[BradyBunch]

And who determines that it will take 2 years for Schoop to be an average 3B. Why not 1 year?

It's all about reps and learning game situations. Schoop has been doing that since 2011 at 2nd.

B.J. Surhoff and Melvin Mora made the switch at the ML level.

What position switch did Surhoff and Mora make that they hadn't played more then a few games at? The switches they made were positions they played before and played a lot.

Schoop's career in the minors consists of 224 games at SS, 209 at 2B, and 24 at 3B. He's essentially a full year away from having just as much game experience at 3B as 2B, not that I think he necessarily needs a full year to be competent there.

Yes, those numbers are correct. But say.. like he has over the last 3 season split time like he has. That's 30-60 games at 3rd instead of full season. Which puts him at about 80 games at most. While he'll be close to 280 games at 2nd.

He's gonna split time because O's still have a weak 2nd. 3rd and SS are solid. So 2nd will be his primary focus this year. So come 2015, Hardy is gone and Schoop barely has any games at 3rd.

Flaherty will have more games at 3rd still.

[BradyBunch]

He's not average to plus a second today. He might be able to develop into an average defender. But plus?

Nah, he's pretty average today. He's ahead of most in the minor leagues statistically at 2nd carrying a .972 Fielding %. Hell, a GG named Brandon Phillips carried a .975 Fielding % in the minors.

[Can_of_corn]

Nah, he's pretty average today. He's ahead of most in the minor leagues statistically at 2nd carrying a .972 Fielding %. Hell, a GG named Brandon Phillips carried a .975 Fielding % in the minors.

I wouldn't suggest correcting Stotle on something like that.

And btw fielding percentage is worth even less when looking at a minor leaguers' defense then it does a major leaguer.

[BradyBunch]

Assuming that Schoops timetable would be delayed for 2 years by switching to 3B is not unfair. It's farfetched.

It is, when the guy has been splitting time between 2 spots his whole minor league career. Hell, what if Flaherty leaves a big stink in ST and O's name Schoop as the starting 2nd baseman... every think of that?

[Can_of_corn]

It is, when the guy has been splitting time between 2 spots his whole minor league career. Hell, what if Flaherty leaves a big stink in ST and O's name Schoop as the starting 2nd baseman... every think of that?

You know, for the record, I don't think anyone here has stated "Schoop can't play second".