So now what do you project for the # of wins for 2014?

[96ludevtec]

I won't say last place or a losing season is impossible, but can you explain what you think about this year's roster is 13 games worse than last year's roster?

Yes. Signing washed up players ( Jimenez and Weeks), signing virtually NOBODY this off season (Balfour, oh yeah I forgot, we didn't sign him thanks to douchebag Angelos), no big bats, a weak offense (Markakis, Wieters, Hardy, Reimold, and Weeks). Will Davis be the same as last season? I hope so, but doubt it. Crappy starting pitching, mediocre bullpen, and do we even have a closer yet? lol. I'm not trying to be the bad guy or get into any arguments, but I really honestly do not see a winning team this year. Maybe a .500 season if I'm wrong on my 72 wins. I just don't see the team being strong and I think morale might be down from all the junk that our HORRENDOUS owner has caused during the off-season of OBVIOUSLY not caring about the fans and most importantly the players. If I was Jones, I'd either force a trade or get the hell outta Baltimore as soon as possible. I looked forward to last season, but this year I have absolutely no excitement for our team. I want this team to win and compete, but they won't. Just sharing my opinion with you guys. Don't wanna start an argument or anything.

[MDK02]

I'll say 85 and once we acquire one of Morales, Cruz or Ike Davis I will bump that number to 93:)

[96ludevtec]

Yankee fan.

lol. NO WAY BRO!! I like telling this story to people because I hate the Yankees so much that I was seeing a girl for three weeks and dumped her because she was a dumb bandwagon Yankee fan. Actually, even if she was from NY and was a true Yankee fan, I would have dumped her anyway. I hate that team so much I wanna rip the hats off people who wear that junk pile of a team and stomp the hat till it turns into a pile of threads. Same with Boston and Toronto as well.

[BradyBunch]

Before the signing I thought O's were in the thick for WC spot. So I am only tweaking this a bit and saying 95 wins either 1st WC spot or win division. I think O's will lose in 7 games in the ALCS if facing Tigers. If we get a AL West team.. in 6 of WS against Cards.

[MrOrangeandBlack]

We will win 89 game...2nd wildcard...win the wildcard round against the Royals and lose in the ALDS to the Tigers

[El Gordo]

Yes. Signing washed up players ( Jimenez and Weeks), signing virtually NOBODY this off season (Balfour, oh yeah I forgot, we didn't sign him thanks to douchebag Angelos), no big bats, a weak offense (Markakis, Wieters, Hardy, Reimold, and Weeks). Will Davis be the same as last season? I hope so, but doubt it. Crappy starting pitching, mediocre bullpen, and do we even have a closer yet? lol. I'm not trying to be the bad guy or get into any arguments, but I really honestly do not see a winning team this year. Maybe a .500 season if I'm wrong on my 72 wins. I just don't see the team being strong and I think morale might be down from all the junk that our HORRENDOUS owner has caused during the off-season of OBVIOUSLY not caring about the fans and most importantly the players. If I was Jones, I'd either force a trade or get the hell outta Baltimore as soon as possible. I looked forward to last season, but this year I have absolutely no excitement for our team. I want this team to win and compete, but they won't. Just sharing my opinion with you guys. Don't wanna start an argument or anything.

Not to worry. That is such a ludicrous and ill informed opinion that no one would take it seriously enough to bother arguing.

[malkusm]

Last year the O's were 85-77 and landed exactly on their Pythagorean expected W-L. So it's safe to say they were an 85-win team last year. For conservatism, let's also assume that anyone with negative WAR on last year's team was actually just a replacement-level player.

Lost

Nate McLouth (LF): 1.6 WAR

Jim Johnson (RP): 1.5 WAR

Brian Roberts (2B): 0.7 WAR

Scott Feldman (SP): 0.7 WAR

Danny Valencia (3B/DH): 0.7 WAR

Alexi Casilla (2B): 0.5 WAR

Francisco Rodriguez (RP): 0.1 WAR

Chris Snyder ©: 0.0 WAR

Jason Hammel (SP): 0.0 WAR

(Negative WAR players: Michael Morse, Jason Pridie)

Let's also deduct 0.1 WAR for Troy Patton's 25-game suspension as he was a 0.5 WAR player last year.

TOTAL: 5.9 WAR

Added

Ubaldo Jimenez (SP): 2.7 WAR

David Lough (LF): 2.7 WAR

Ryan Webb (RP): 1.2 WAR

Francisco Peguero (OF): 0.2 WAR

Suk-min Yoon (P): ????

TOTAL: 6.8 WAR + ?Yoon?

Assuming these players are their 2013 selves, the Orioles have improved by at least 1 win this offseason, and potentially 2-3 wins if Yoon performs well. When you combine that with the fact that no projected regular on the 2014 Orioles will be above the age of 31 (J.J. Hardy and Darren O'Day), so that many of their key players will be in their statistical primes, you could argue easily that the Orioles should be a 90-win team this year.

[Frobby]

Assuming these players are their 2013 selves, the Orioles have improved by at least 1 win this offseason, and potentially 2-3 wins if Yoon performs well. When you combine that with the fact that no projected regular on the 2014 Orioles will be above the age of 31 (J.J. Hardy and Darren O'Day), so that many of their key players will be in their statistical primes, you could argue easily that the Orioles should be a 90-win team this year.

Based on your analysis, I feel pretty good about my statement that we're an 86-win team, plus or minus five games. My biggest worry is that our six regular position players won't stay as healthy as last year, when they missed 29 games combined (14 by Wieters, who of course had to have days off here and there and probably didn't have enough of them). Of course, we had a lot of injuries at the other three spots between Reimold, Betemit, Pearce and BRob.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Last year the O's were 85-77 and landed exactly on their Pythagorean expected W-L. So it's safe to say they were an 85-win team last year. For conservatism, let's also assume that anyone with negative WAR on last year's team was actually just a replacement-level player.

Lost

Nate McLouth (LF): 1.6 WAR

Jim Johnson (RP): 1.5 WAR

Brian Roberts (2B): 0.7 WAR

Scott Feldman (SP): 0.7 WAR

Danny Valencia (3B/DH): 0.7 WAR

Alexi Casilla (2B): 0.5 WAR

Francisco Rodriguez (RP): 0.1 WAR

Chris Snyder ©: 0.0 WAR

Jason Hammel (SP): 0.0 WAR

(Negative WAR players: Michael Morse, Jason Pridie)

Let's also deduct 0.1 WAR for Troy Patton's 25-game suspension as he was a 0.5 WAR player last year.

TOTAL: 5.9 WAR

Added

Ubaldo Jimenez (SP): 2.7 WAR

David Lough (LF): 2.7 WAR

Ryan Webb (RP): 1.2 WAR

Francisco Peguero (OF): 0.2 WAR

Suk-min Yoon (P): ????

TOTAL: 6.8 WAR + ?Yoon?

Assuming these players are their 2013 selves, the Orioles have improved by at least 1 win this offseason, and potentially 2-3 wins if Yoon performs well. When you combine that with the fact that no projected regular on the 2014 Orioles will be above the age of 31 (J.J. Hardy and Darren O'Day), so that many of their key players will be in their statistical primes, you could argue easily that the Orioles should be a 90-win team this year.

You forgot Taylor Teagarden (-0.4).

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm going with mid 80s, but with pretty wide error bars. Some breakout candidates (Machado, Gausman, maybe Yoon, maybe Jimenez could rip off a good year), some collapse or regression possibilities (Davis, half the staff, Lough, maybe Hardy), and some possible holes like 2B. I, like Frobby, also fear 2-3 long DL stints by key players could make things look pretty ugly.

[DrungoHazewood]

For conservatism, let's also assume that anyone with negative WAR on last year's team was actually just a replacement-level player.

You should also assume a non-trivial number of PAs and innings from random AAA players who will provide negative production once again. It's essentially impossible for that not to happen. Even the 116-win 2001 Mariners had 5-6 sub-replacement players.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You should also assume a non-trivial number of PAs and innings from random AAA players who will provide negative production once again. It's essentially impossible for that not to happen. Even the 116-win 2001 Mariners had 5-6 sub-replacement players.

Trea-ian theory says that problem can be averted.

[malkusm]

You should also assume a non-trivial number of PAs and innings from random AAA players who will provide negative production once again. It's essentially impossible for that not to happen. Even the 116-win 2001 Mariners had 5-6 sub-replacement players.

I threw out below-replacement level players on the additions (for example, Jemile Weeks) as well as the subtractions. They would more or less wash out if I added them in though.

[El Gordo]

Based on your analysis, I feel pretty good about my statement that we're an 86-win team, plus or minus five games. My biggest worry is that our six regular position players won't stay as healthy as last year, when they missed 29 games combined (14 by Wieters, who of course had to have days off here and there and probably didn't have enough of them). Of course, we had a lot of injuries at the other three spots between Reimold, Betemit, Pearce and BRob.

Lets say all our position players are injured except Manny. And we either sign Morales or trade for Davis This is our team:

1B Ike/Morales

2B Weeks/Casilla/DeJesus

SS Dejesus/Casilla

3B Manny

LF Pearce/Reimold

CF Peguero

RF Henry

C Clevenger/Monell

DH Young/Paul

That's about as worse as it could get?

[DrungoHazewood]

Lets say all our position players are injured except Manny. And we either sign Morales or trade for Davis This is our team:

1B Ike/Morales

2B Weeks/Casilla/DeJesus

SS Dejesus/Casilla

3B Manny

LF Pearce/Reimold

CF Peguero

RF Henry

C Clevenger/Monell

DH Young/Paul

That's about as worse as it could get?

No. What if a meteor hits the spring training complex and only the players slated for Delmarva were off at a road game? The Shorebirds might not win 15 games in a MLB season.