Per Connolly: O's intensifying interest in Morales (Roch says he's hearing no)

[CA-ORIOLE]

The problem is trying to defend "Lineup protection is real".

Just make up your own definition and it's real.

[weams]

I think he basically outlines the argument this thread is having between those "who think it should exist and therefore believe it does", and those who say "show me the evidence".

I thought he was saying that you could prove it empirically, but the difference is small enough to be irrelevant.

[Ripken]

I think Morales signs here in the next 48 hours.

Any guesses on a contract?

I'll say 2/21 with team option for 3/33 (2014-16: $10M, $11M, $12M).

[Fan4Life]

I thought he was saying that you could prove it empirically, but the difference is small enough to be irrelevant.

Yeah... he said that too.... but in the end, one statistical reference really can't be proof of much. I do like the logic. It should exist. Managers make out their lineup cards every night with the premise that it matters who hits where.

[erb8472]

I think Morales signs here in the next 48 hours.

Any guesses on a contract?

I'll say 2/21 with team option for 3/33 (2014-16: $10M, $11M, $12M).

2/18. 1st year $8m and 2nd year as a $10m mutual option.

[erb8472]

10+ pages, no mention of physical.

30+ pages on lineup protection. If we can get one more page on the subject these guys will cover it.

[Ripken]

10+ pages, no mention of physical.

Well, he did mess up that ankle in 2010, and he could benefit from some time with Brady, but I don't know of any reason he'd fail a physical. And he's not a pitcher so...

[El Gordo]

Is there anyone else specifically more pumped about Cruz than Morales, other than Birdland? Just curious.

There is no statistical evidence that who bats behind who has any significant effect on the overall numbers of the guy batting in front. But if managers believe it does, in certain situations, and make up their lineups accordingly, and pitchers adjust their pitching strategies accordingly in those situations, then protection does exist, in a sense.

[erb8472]

Erm.. I don't think you meant to quote me.

Nope think he was gunning for me with that.

[AlbionHero]

All it takes is one pitcher to think "I don't need to challenge Davis on this 3-0 pitch since I'm not worried about the guy behind him" to make protection a real thing.

[Fan4Life]

All it takes is one pitcher to think "I don't need to challenge Davis on this 3-0 pitch since I'm not worried about the guy behind him" to make protection a real thing.

And there you have it... where were you 10 pages ago?

[malkusm]

30+ pages on lineup protection. If we can get one more page on the subject these guys will cover it.

Will there be slow-motion ballistic video of Chris Davis' swing WITH and WITHOUT lineup protection, side-by-side?

[El Gordo]

Erm.. I don't think you meant to quote me.

No I didn't, sorry, but just to respond to your post, no I don't think anyone else prefers Cruz.

[paulcoates]

So if he gets the opt out, this is like trading

this years first round pick

for

Kendry Morales and next years first round pick (if he is signed by another team)

[El Gordo]

And there you have it... where were you 10 pages ago?

I said it much earlier when I paraphrased Kris Kringle.