Did Dan have a plan all along?

[TonySoprano]

Trading Davis was an important part of the "plan". So I tried to identify the possible market for him. That's the point. As far as I can see the only teams willing to give up much for two years of him would be WAS, SF, and SEA. and I think that is pretty slim. I wasn't using the mean old PA argument since that was dismissed by Mr. Baseball. You have any ideas on Davis' massive market?

Why does it have to be a "massive market?" I could also see interest from St.Louis, who does have a history of loving power hitting first basemen. The Mets tore down payroll in order to reload. Or do you think they want to keep seeing the Yankees get all the love on the newspaper back pages? Billy Beane wouldn't want two years of a guy who could hit one out of his ballpark, and then flip him in a year? All you need is one decent trade partner, and not a "massive" amount. Finally, if the trade market for Davis is supposedly so thin two years from free agency, then how much bigger will his market be in two years?

[El Gordo]

Sure, we don't know the return, but it's entirely illogical to presume that only 3 of 30 teams would want Davis.Just admit you don't know and move on.

Stotle's point is that a franchise playing the long game would be setting this stuff up all the time for various players. Sometimes you pull the trigger. Sometimes you don't.

That's the only flaw with his premise...that DD should have done those moves this off season. It assumes he didn't try, and we don't know that at all. On the other hand, it's crazy to think that guys worth 2-7 WAR have no value to any other teams.

No it's illogical to assume that any team would want to trade valuable prospects regardless of whether they had a need or not. What would CIN do with Chris Davis if they traded for him e.g.? Why would they? You can go around the league and ask the same question of most contending teams. The biggest flaw in the "plan" is to assume you a can free up enough money trading Davis, Hardy, JJ, and Wieters, when you don't even know what the potential market for them is, to sign McCann and Ellsbury . McCann and Ellsbury would cost more than 40M combined and trading all those players would only free up 35 M at the most, assuming you weren't taking on any ML salary in the trades.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I find the Opening Post in this thread interesting for lavishing so much praise on DD for having a plan and then adjusting to the market. What I find interesting is that it appears the Os "plan" was to obtain Lough (love the move), Webb (love the move) Balfour (obtained without a pick) and Burnett (obtained without a pick") plus DD specifically stated many times he would trade for a bat. Instead of Burnett and Balfour and keeping our picks, DD ends up with Jimenez and Cruz and without first and second round picks and no closer - acknowledging that the offseason is not yet over.

Does that sound like a GM whose plan has worked and/or one who has rolled with the punches, or one who is a bit apprehensive about how the off-season has played out (not getting his guys) and might be making some desperate moves? Some people have applauded this change of strategy as "going for it", I see it as somewhat desperate. Folks can belittle the picks all they want, but building the farm internally is what generates winners for franchises with payrolls under $140M or so. In fact, it is completely ridiculous for our GM and fans to hint that teams can give up their first rounder, supplemental first rounder and second rounder but make up for it internationally. Practically EVERY team invests internationally and practically every teams spends more than the Os internationally. So that is really a high bar to clear to hint that not only can the Os out-scout and find more talent than other teams internationally while spending less, but to out-scout them internationally to make up for giving up three top 60 draft picks.

Last season, our GM added three quality draft picks in Harvey, Hart and Sisco (plus some others to get excited about) and have spent good $ on (what he claims) are quality international signings in Peralta, Diaz and Reyes. It only takes two more years of adding that kind of talent to have a top five or 10 system. If you add those talents to an organization that trades away Jim Johnson (last season as some here requested), JJ Hardy (this offseason or last), Davis (this off-season) for appropriate talent, and add on top of all those talents Machado, Tillman, Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, EdRod and Harvey, you know what you will have? A winning organization. That would be so much talent at so little cost that it would be impossible NOT to win .... and for a long time. That's the plan I would have signed up for. How much time would it have taken for that plan to create a winner? Probably much less time than one would think.

Been busy today, Stotle, didn't mean to let you handle this buy yourself.

You know what I find interesting? This post as compared to the post you made three days ago. Three days ago the move to sign Jimenez was a "master stroke" that legitimized the team and "could not have been timed or structured better" with DD "taking advantage of market conditions".and "perfectly positioning us in this market to add at least one more plus FA talent.... like Morales". Today he's an "apprehensive" GM who whose leadership failings lead us to an "act of desperation". Of course "some people" have seen this as "going for it" (but, not you of course).

We're talking about the same freakin move(s)/strategy. How do you reconcile that?

Ubaldo Signing Legitimizes Team

Signing Jimenez appears to be a master play by DD for many reasons.

First and most obvious, it pushes a question mark of a fifth starter position and turns it into a strength.

Second, the team now looks at additional top free agents as costing less - second round pick.

Third, the deal structure lays a framework for what Santana might have to accept or perhaps force Santana to take less. The Ubaldo signing might have Santana saying, "hey, I'd accept that deal" (or a bit less) when perhaps Santana was asking for more previously.

Fourth, the Os are a more legit competitor in the AL with Ubaldo and thus a more desired destination. The remaining FAs can see that going to Bmore will result in a competitive team. Further, the remaining FAs, particularly Morales, can see exactly what the DH position gave Bmore last year, is projected to provide this year, and what additional competitiveness Morales can provide.

The cost of the pick for Jiminez is significant, but DD is taking advantage of market conditions in a fine way. It seems in prior years that just when the Os felt like they had a good FA cornered, some other team popped into the picture as a preferred destination. For some reason, with the additional $ flowing to teams from the national contract and other revenue sources, it does seem like the Os are perfectly positioned in this market to add at least one more plus FA talent without a larger market team sneaking in at the last second. To prove this good positioning, and to get the momentum rolling, the signing of Ubaldo appears to legitimize the Os and could not have been timed or structured better.

[hoosiers]

Oh please.

Yes please help us see the error of our ways, exalted one. We need to be handled.

What a douchey comment that was. Just state your opinion, there's no need for that parting shot.

Nothing wrong with telling a guy debating against the entire board that you share and support his opinion, and would have voiced that support earlier if not for being busy. Is there?

Not sure why that is an issue to you at all (especially considering it was clearly a sentence directed at someone else - AND a point agreed to by another poster), but, hey, stay classy.

[El Gordo]

Nevermind -- I'm done. You win.

Just as I said, typical of your MO. You need to rethink your "plan' through a little more.

[hoosiers]

Um, you stay classy, guy. Your comment was not about agreeing with one poster, it was about putting down a large section of the board at once.

No one here needs to be "handled". That's offensive. We may all disagree fiercely at times, but that's such a dismissive, high horse comment that you need to be called on it.

I can't make this point any clearer - the sentence had nothing to do with you or putting down the board. I have a bad history with Stotle, at one point almost left the board because of him, complained directly to Tony about him, and stopped posting entirely in threads in which Stotle participated for about two years.

I can tell you with 100% sincerity that your interpretation of that one sentence is entirely inaccurate and I apologize for leaving any ambiguity that the sentence was directed at anyone besides Stotle.

[OrangeJerseys]

We won't care when they hand out the rings next year.

[hoosiers]

You know what I find interesting. This post as compared to the post you made three days ago. Three days ago the move to sign Jimenez was a "master stroke" that legitimized the team and "could not have been timed or structured better" with DD "taking advantage of market conditions".and "perfectly positioning us in this market to add at least one more plus FA talent.... like Morales". Today he's an "apprehensive" GM who whose leadership failings lead us to an "act of desperation". Of course "some people" have seen this as "going for it" (but, not you of course).

We're talking about the same freakin move(s)/strategy. How do you reconcile that?

First, later in the Ubaldo thread, I posted (and you failed to acknowledge):

Not saying I am high on the Jimenez signing. I did post I thought he was a top target of ours.

I am just pointing out that the market fell to DD and he looks good for that - noting that prior GMs thought they had the market similarly figured out only to be wrong. Regardless, DD got his guy and the FO seems to have some momentum with the Ubaldo signing. Momentum in an intangible thing and sometimes it does no good and sometimes it seems to work in one's favor.

I would have preferred to see the team go in another direction and deal Wieters and Davis and go young in a major bid for 2015 and 2016 - along with keeping our prospects. A GM in his third off-season really can't decide to take a step back, but to put some cards on the table to move the team forward. We'll see how it pans out.

AM once said it was time to compete when the talent on the roster made it self evident. I don't really see it with this group. I see the talent, but I have not felt it was enough to make the commitments in $ and sacrifices in draft picks that DD is making. I am not a believer in Hunter as closer, with Bud in the rotation, etc. Now, if we don't compete, perhaps DD will still deal Davis and Wieters and possibly Cruz (for more than second round value), so I will watch and, hopefully, learn.

The goal of a GM is to put a winning product on the field at a major league level and DD is making that effort. It is undeniably fun to be relevant at the major league level, but I'll just note that I am an extremely patient person and have no issues delaying our "time to compete" until the minor league talent supporting the major league team is overwhelming. We'll see how it goes.

Second, if you read the OP of the thread you mentioned carefully, I credit DD with upgrading the major league rotation (pushing out the fifth starter with a 3 WAR pitcher - by some projections), lessening the cost of subsequent top free agents (to a second rounder instead of a first), setting the market perhaps for Santana, becoming a more desired FA destination with Jimenez since we would be more competitive with Jimenez and for creating momentum, if such a thing exists, to add more talent.

I did not say that signing Jimenez reflected a brilliant offseason plan that I supported.

I did not post that I agreed with the terms/cost of the Jimenez signing.

My thread was an acknowledgement that DD had created some serious momentum in the free agent market, had acquired a FA target of his AND, though not mentioned, had energized the fan base. I am a pretty patient and analytical person and I was appreciating all of the implications of the Jimenez signing - particularly, the upgrade to the pitching staff and the optimism and giddiness felt within the organization and fan base and the perceived momentum created in the national press and FA market - and that DD deserves credit for those things. Those are not things my "build from within" plan would create.

You know, I follow the stock market and I see people claim to make great investments and I might agree with them or appreciate their line of thinking, but that does not mean that I would the same stock for the same price.

I believe my build from within plan has been pretty consistent through the years as evidenced by the below:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/67522-Eye-On-The-Prize-Blow-It-Up?highlight=trade+davis+wieters

Point 11 in the following thread:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/137708-A-Collection-of-Random-Thoughts?highlight=trade+davis+wieters

[Hallas]

That's not true, though. If a team is to operate on a fixed budget (which I thought was the assumption around these parts re: Baltimore) then paying Cruz or Markakis $15 MM for one year is a huge deal. I don't see any reason why they would decline the offer other than you and weams just saying they will. Cruz was apparently lucky to find someone who would give him 1/8 this year. You think he's looking forward to that again, only a year older? Markakis was a negative fWAR player last year -- he's turning down $15MM? What kind of contract is he expecting?

The assumption is that both players have bounce-back years. If they suck then we let them go without a QO. But if they bounce back, and the team's budget is so rigid that they can't absorb that risk for a sizeable gain then... I don't know what to say. I don't think I need to say that it would hurt us severely if we can't play the comp pick game.

[scOtt]

[video=youtube;FPQlXNH36mI]

[scOtt]

in bed...