Did Dan have a plan all along?

[Bahama O's Fan]

The big question, that will be asked by the media, is was this the plan all along or did the O's get desperate to sign some people before Spring Training really got going?

[justice98]

I sure would be curious to see what was going in in DD's mind through this process. My big question is whether he had an idea that the market on Nelson Cruz would plummet or if he got lucky. Cruz turned down a qualifying offer for $14 million, so I figured it would take at least that much to sign him. The other question was if Balfour had signed, would we have had no marbles left for Cruz and or Jimenez, even at $8 million. In retrospect it is possible that the Balfour deal blowing up could have been a blessing in disguise.

To split some hairs, I would say DD has not significantly improved our overall OBP or 2B position, which are also things that have been talked about. Maybe Cruz will help our OBP, but Danny V was mashing lefties last year. Also, I think Lough is about a wash with McLouth, although way cheaper. I am also not convinced we have improved our bullpen. DD certainly tried to improve the BP, but the bottom line is we lost JJ and do not have an experienced closer going into the season.

That said, I understand you can't do everything with finite resources. Under the circumstances, DD has done most of what he set out to do and certainly made the most of the situation.

That's how I would see it, that he made the most of the situation. Because failing Balfour on the physical couldn't have been part of any master plan, or Colvin for that matter. And they benefited from Cruz making a tactical error on his end in rejecting the qualifying offer. Morales price seemed to be higher and if Cruz isn't there, would they have met that price? Who knows. But good for DD for do what's he's done. They definitely caught some breaks though.

[Number5]

The big question' date=' that will be asked by the media, is was this the plan all along or did the O's get desperate to sign some people before Spring Training really got going?[/quote']

The team-friendly contracts the Orioles got on both Cruz and Jimenez provide a definitive answer to your "desperation" question.

[olehippi]

I'm more inclined to believe that Duquette got lucky......maybe. Only time will tell if the investment in Jiminez will work out. As for Cruz, it appears to have been more of being in the "right place at the right time" situation.

It doesn't matter how or why.....the moves have helped the team considerably.

[LookinUp]

The big question' date=' that will be asked by the media, is was this the plan all along or did the O's get desperate to sign some people before Spring Training really got going?[/quote']

I don't believe this to be the case. I think the timing of things had more to do with the progression of the offseason. My best guess is as follows:

1. Dan wanted A.J. Burnett. While that percolated, he did his diligence on Arroyo and Jimenez (and probably others). Garza was probably ruled out.

2. Separately, Dan considered DH options. It could have been internal, a trade or a signing.

3. Separately from that, Dan considered relief options. That has been an ongoing process from Webb, to Aceves to Balfour. It didn't stop with Balfour, and Yoon may have been a contingency here and #1.

4. When it became clear that Burnett and Arroyo didn't want to come here for a competitive price, Dan decided Jimenez was worth the #1 at that cost. Done.

5. When the #1 was gone, and the price on Morales/Cruz dropped, Dan decided it was worth it to sign a DH.

6. Cruz caved in a bidding war in order to play for a contract next year.

7. This ended talk of trading for a guy like Ike Davis or Smoak.

The bullpen is largely set, though not with a "proven" closer. DD may still look to augment here with someone like Madson, but cheap.

The rotation is largely set. DD's M.O. is to keep looking, so a Johan Santana type makes sense. I doubt Ervin is in the plans.

We're pretty set on hitters.

Point being, this all unfolded very rationally. People here just wanted us to be in the market at a different time. DD said all along what he'd do, and he did it. I'm mostly pleased.

[jabba72]

The Orioles signed Tejada on December 14, 2003 at the Winter Meetings. The market had not percolated.

I remember Tejada's only other reported offer was from Seattle for something like 5-$50M. There wasnt much of a market.

[Stotle]

I don't believe this to be the case. I think the timing of things had more to do with the progression of the offseason. My best guess is as follows:

1. Dan wanted A.J. Burnett. While that percolated, he did his diligence on Arroyo and Jimenez (and probably others). Garza was probably ruled out.

2. Separately, Dan considered DH options. It could have been internal, a trade or a signing.

3. Separately from that, Dan considered relief options. That has been an ongoing process from Webb, to Aceves to Balfour. It didn't stop with Balfour, and Yoon may have been a contingency here and #1.

4. When it became clear that Burnett and Arroyo didn't want to come here for a competitive price, Dan decided Jimenez was worth the #1 at that cost. Done.

5. When the #1 was gone, and the price on Morales/Cruz dropped, Dan decided it was worth it to sign a DH.

6. Cruz caved in a bidding war in order to play for a contract next year.

7. This ended talk of trading for a guy like Ike Davis or Smoak.

The bullpen is largely set, though not with a "proven" closer. DD may still look to augment here with someone like Madson, but cheap.

The rotation is largely set. DD's M.O. is to keep looking, so a Johan Santana type makes sense. I doubt Ervin is in the plans.

We're pretty set on hitters.

Point being, this all unfolded very rationally. People here just wanted us to be in the market at a different time. DD said all along what he'd do, and he did it. I'm mostly pleased.

So Duquette's ideal offseason, in your opinion, was adding Lough, Balfour, maybe Yoon, Burnett, and a mystery DH. That was the plan to make this a serious playoff contender.

[Stotle]

It's hard to figure out what exactly Dan would have done if he had succeeded in signing Balfour. It certainly seems like it would have ruled out signing Cruz.

So then the ideal winter for the FO was potentially Lough, Balfour, maybe Yoon, Burnett, and a mystery DH that is either a reclamation project or value signing at the end of the off-season? Am I the only one highly underwhelmed by that notion?

[LookinUp]

So Duquette's ideal offseason, in your opinion, was adding Lough, Balfour, maybe Yoon, Burnett, and a mystery DH. That was the plan to make this a serious playoff contender.

In a word, yes. He would have spent his 100 marbles, shored up the pitching staff (you should add Webb, Aceves, etc. to above) and left enough offense to be able to claim this team is a contender. We'd be better on paper than last year with Burnett, Balfour and the DH. He'd have also kept those 2 picks.

I mean, really, the difference between what I think he might have done and what he did is Jimenez versus Burnett, ? versus Balfour, Cruz versus Ike Davis/Smoak type of player and 2 draft picks. I like the upside of Jimenez and Cruz for this year, but it's not like the two teams would be drastically different.

[33rdst]

So Duquette's ideal offseason, in your opinion, was adding Lough, Balfour, maybe Yoon, Burnett, and a mystery DH. That was the plan to make this a serious playoff contender.

Initially, that's close. Although I'm not sure how much he wanted Balfour. IMO a lot of that interest came from internal pressure. Keeping the pick was very important too. He also wanted Webb. But the dynamics changed. Opportunities opened up for him and he was able to get higher upgrades then he initially anticipated. Obviously, it was a very fluid situation. He took advantage of it.

[Stotle]

I guess it's underwhelming, but do you disagree that that could have been the plan? I suppose the Burnett thing could have been mostly noise and Ubaldo was really their preference all along.

Really, the only difference between that scenario and the one that actually played out is Cruz. We could consider Burnett and Jimenez to be roughly equal, no? In terms of how we expect them to produce?

Sure, based on how everything unfolded that could absolutely have been the plan. It's kind of disheartening that this is the best plan the org can come up with for making a playoff push, no?

[Stotle]

In a word, yes. He would have spent his 100 marbles, shored up the pitching staff (you should add Webb, Aceves, etc. to above) and left enough offense to be able to claim this team is a contender. We'd be better on paper than last year with Burnett, Balfour and the DH. He'd have also kept those 2 picks.

I mean, really, the difference between what I think he might have done and what he did is Jimenez versus Burnett, ? versus Balfour, Cruz versus Ike Davis/Smoak type of player and 2 draft picks. I like the upside of Jimenez and Cruz for this year, but it's not like the two teams would be drastically different.

I believe you that the FO may have had something like this in mind, and maybe this exactly. But that doesn't mean this is a good plan for pushing Baltimore from where it was in 2013 to a serious playoff contender. Maybe an "if he hit on one of the big upside guys and don't have anyone significant get injured or regress, we should be in the conversation in the second half" kind of team. Just seems like that's aiming sights rather low.

[Stotle]

Initially, that's close. Although I'm not sure how much he wanted Balfour. IMO a lot of that interest came from internal pressure. Keeping the pick was very important too. He also wanted Webb. But the dynamics changed. Opportunities opened up for him and he was able to get higher upgrades then he initially anticipated. Obviously, it was a very fluid situation. He took advantage of it.

Seeing as how he think he scored upgrades over what he expected, sounds like you're on board with this being a legit contender for the AL East title?

[33rdst]

Yes I am. It wasn't without a cost certainly, although that depends on how much you value the picks he gave up.

[Stotle]

I feel like you're skirting around whatever it is you're trying to say here. Do you feel like what actually transpired is markedly better than the scenario presented in this thread?

No, I think the caliber of players, taking into account cost/risk/upside is essentially the same. I'm trying to figure out why it seems like the board is overjoyed at the moves/plan. I mean, it's absolutely better than doing nothing. But to me this looks like "going for it" in name, and not action.