Did Dan have a plan all along?

[33rdst]

Wow, it's not enough to just have a conversation about the merits of a set of moves? Someone has to unveil a competing plan, too? I don't feel like I've at all been disrespectful to anyone who likes the moves. Not sure why anyone would feel hostility towards my posting...

Yea I think you've been completely respectful of my point of view at least. I appreciate that. It was fairly clear early on that you didn't support DD giving up the picks. That's a judgement call predicated on whether you think the team can compete now or not. Can't argue with that.

[Stotle]

I don't necessarily feel hostility, you just aren't getting around to whatever it is you would have preferred them to do. Instead you're just saying "I don't view this team as a contender with the additions made". But that doesn't carry much weight when you don't appear to have any idea what would have been better. And when you're not responding to posts that attempt to articulate why it would be hard for Duquette to do much more than he has to this point.

I'm honestly not sure what you mean. It's not enough to say, "I don't like the return for the price"?

Baltimore has marketable assets in Hardy, Davis, and Wieters. Moving them frees up around $25-28MM? $35MM once you move Johnson?

Ellsbury + McCann plus return for those trades likely sets the team up as well for this year and better for future years. Tell Ellsbury he's going to be batting in Camden Yards in front of Machado, McCann, Jones for the next five years and I guarantee you get his attention. Ditto McCann.

Trade Johnson and Wieters and sign McCann. You have a catcher for two or three years while your young replacement comes up (maybe Pentecost in this year's draft?), and a DH/1B after that. With the returns for your trades, you get one or two young MLB arms that profile as mid-rotation or so? Free up Bundy or Guasman to trade to Cubs for one of Bryant/Baez/Soler -- they desperately need pitching; you need young, cheap power.

I don't accept "It's hard to make moves because of my mean owner", though I wholly expect gordo to say none of the above is possible for that reason. When that's your stance, it's easy to be thrilled with ANYTHING a front office accomplishes. Maybe my expectations are unreasonable. I can live with that.

I also believe no one should have a better understanding of a player's potential/likely production than his front office. So I'm wholly aboard the idea that Duquette and Co. simply understand the base level talent on the Orioles better than I do. I think it's relevant that a lot of projection systems have Baltimore as a non-contender, but systems can be wrong -- I can CERTAINLY be wrong.

EDIT -- If you sell STL on Hardy (which is a convo I would have been having with them the day after the World Series) maybe you sign Peralta rather than Ellsbury and spend the remainder elsewhere? Or you get Lowrie as part of the Johnson trade and eat some money? There are a lot of possibilities -- it definitely takes a lot of elbow grease.

[Stotle]

Thank you, that's all I've been looking for. To my first bolded point, no it's not enough to say you don't like the return for the price. Not after questioning the entire board on its excitement. If you're going to disagree with the moves, and you're a mod-level poster as yourself, you should be prepared to articulate what you would do instead, especially when presented with well reasoned arguments by us peons and laymen.

Now that you've done that, though, in no way do I agree that McCann + Ellsbury is a better use of roughly $190 million than our current roster that includes Wieters, Hardy, and Davis. Secondly, you're trading Gausman or Bundy for a power bat. So you've acquired exactly 0 starting pitching in this scenario.

Finally, not once did I blame the owner. There's so much to consider in making these moves: does the player want to come here, what's the budget of the team (this is different than blaming Angelos), are your trades successful or are you unable to get the players back that you want?

Well, we have a fundamental disagreement then. That's fine. I still don't understand the hostility (really, labeling yourself a "peon" as if I'm holding my views above anyone else's?). Go back and count how many times in this thread alone I've said I understand loving the moves of the FO if you believe this is a playoff level team.

Just to be clear, if I'm moving Wieters, Hardy, and Davis I'm definitely getting back pitching. I could also trade for Samardzija, or get aggressive and sign Kazmir early, or trade for Brett Anderson, etc. And that's only assuming I NEED to try and compete in 2014. I think the right move is actually to semi-punt on 2014 and do a quick re-make to be a force 2015-2018. So, only sign McCann in that instance.

Anyway, I'm not interested in this type of discourse. Seems best not to question the FO at all after the recent moves. Maybe that will be a permitted topic again around May/June. We'll see!

[El Gordo]

Unless I'm blaming the owner for the 100 M ceiling, I am not mentioning him. I take it as a given. McCann and Ellsbury will cost more than 40M to lure them away from the MFY. That's 5 M+ over budget already. Wieters would probably get you the ML arm you need, but JJ wouldn't. As incompetent as you may feel DD is, if he could have gotten an arm for JJ, I am sure he would have. I am not so confident what you would get for Wieters and Davis, given they are two year rentals and not exactly cheap. What contending team so sorely needs a C or 1B that they would give a boatload of talent for either of these two. If I were BOS or NY I would be content to wait two years for Davis. Who needs 1B, LAD, LAA ,TEX, WAS, ATL, PIT, TB, OAK, STL, SF, CLE?

[Stotle]

Sorry if I'm a little frustrated. I do think your writing style lends to your views being presented as being above the majority of the board. Maybe that's on me for reading it that way, I don't know.

I think it's totally fine if you don't think this is a playoff team, and I'm certainly not saying you can't question the FO here. We've been questioning them all offseason, after all. I just wanted to see your plan. Now that I've seen it, I can see where you're coming from, but I can't find how Ellsbury, McCann, a prospect bat, and pitching prospects are much better than Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Jimenez, and Gausman.

For the years to come, yeah, the team would be set up better under your plan perhaps (assuming that the O's could have convinced Ellsbury to take similar money to play for the Orioles over the Yankees, which I find pretty close to impossible), but I don't think it makes them a better team this year. Because you're sacrificing 3 power bats (Wieters, Davis, Hardy) for 2 (McCann, prospect), you're subtracting defense at 3B now that Machado is your SS, and your rotation is a wash with Samardzija over Jimenez, IMO.

To me, the improvement comes in setting the team up much, much better for the future, and the present improvements carry less immediate risk.

[spiritof66]

To me, giving McCann 5/90 at the beginning of the off-season, then finding a cheap SP is a better use of money/roster spots than Cruz/Jimenez. McCann is the better player and fits the needs of the org (near term and long term) better than Cruz/Jimenez. If you can trade Wieters, you do it. Or you have these guys chop up the rotation and go 3 on 2 off to keep both fresh and in the lineup for 150+ games.

It's hard for me to believe that the Yankees, desperate for a catcher and criticized by the NY media for letting Martin go, would have let the Orioles out-marble them for McCann.

[Stotle]

Unless I'm blaming the owner for the 100 M ceiling, I am not mentioning him. I take it as a given. McCann and Ellsbury will cost more than 40M to lure them away from the MFY. That's 5 M+ over budget already. Wieters would probably get you the ML arm you need, but JJ wouldn't. As incompetent as you may feel DD is, if he could have gotten an arm for JJ, I am sure he would have. I am not so confident what you would get for Wieters and Davis, given they are two year rentals and not exactly cheap. What contending team so sorely needs a C or 1B that they would give a boatload of talent for either of these two. If I were BOS or NY I would be content to wait two years for Davis. Who needs 1B, LAD, LAA ,TEX, WAS, ATL, PIT, TB, OAK, STL, SF, CLE?

Can't argue both sides - Wieters and Davis are big pieces of the core and no one would give a worthwhile return.

[LookinUp]

For those who don't remember from months ago, Stotle did lay out his plan for this off season in great detail.

With respect to his option versus what the Orioles did, I actually think Stotle's wrong. This is very rare for me.

The O's committed ~$60 million to Jimenez and Cruz. They gave up 2 picks.

Stotle would have committed >$200 million to Ellsbury and McCann, and give up 2 picks.

The O's still have Bundy, Gausman, Hardy, Davis and Wieters. Stotle's plan hedges on trading those guys. It could still happen. Indeed, I hope it still does happen. I hope it happens next off season. The only difference being any return Hardy could have gotten would (hopefully) be replaced by a first round pick.

I guess what I'm saying is DD's plan this off season doesn't have to be that different than Stotle's plan for the franchise. I suspect Stotle understands that, but also understands that DD is less likely to move so many assets to set the team up for the future. A good example of that is the extension talks with Hardy. That shouldn't happen, but it probably will. Others here want DD to hold onto Davis and Wieters for the next 2 seasons. Stotle would have cut his losses early. I'd trade them this upcoming off season.

In the end, DD's decisions on Hardy, Wieters and Davis will tell the story of how this franchise sets up in 2015 and beyond.

[Stotle]

Johnson was a pretty big piece of the core if you consider his role and success on the team, and he didn't get a worthwhile return. So, you can definitely argue both sides. Core =/= guaranteed return. It just relates to how you fit on the team. Johnson was a damn good pitcher who made up a part of the Orioles' core, but he was so expensive that he didn't get a good return.

Maybe you make that argument with regards to a relief arm (though I'd argue that's really an argument for that arm not providing that much actual value compared to other possible contributors). I don't think you can make those arguments for Davis, Wieters, and Hardy at their price.

[Singleton]

I agree with both sides Ok. Not really. I don't think this was exactly DD's plan all along. I can believe that he planned to get a SP and perhaps a power bat and this is how it played out. It worked out...ok -- kinda to me. Very ok to others. To each his own.

As for the need to have an alternative plan to be critical of the moves, I think it isn't always necessary (or fair).

Having said that, I laid out a very uncreative alternative in the thread started by Tony's take that included signing one of Hudson/Kazmir and also C. Hart. Cheaper, less commitment long-term, and close to the same chance to get into the playoffs.

There are far more creative (and better) options that involve trading a guy like Hardy, Weiters, or C. Davis now rather than waiting. But I'm not going to try and make up the return package because too often others take the ideas too literally and you're stuck discussing whether it could happen or not and no one really knows.

As I said in the other thread -- I think one's opinion to the moves really depends on whether you think this team is now likely to make the playoffs. If you think we have a darn good shot, you're probably pretty stoked. If you think -- as I do -- that we're still unlikely -- than the near-term improvements aren't enough to be comfortable with losing so many picks.

[Stotle]

For those who don't remember from months ago, Stotle did lay out his plan for this off season in great detail.

With respect to his option versus what the Orioles did, I actually think Stotle's wrong. This is very rare for me.

The O's committed ~$60 million to Jimenez and Cruz. They gave up 2 picks.

Stotle would have committed >$200 million to Ellsbury and McCann, and give up 2 picks.

The O's still have Bundy, Gausman, Hardy, Davis and Wieters. Stotle's plan hedges on trading those guys. It could still happen. Indeed, I hope it still does happen. I hope it happens next off season. The only difference being any return Hardy could have gotten would (hopefully) be replaced by a first round pick.

I guess what I'm saying is DD's plan this off season doesn't have to be that different than Stotle's plan for the franchise. I suspect Stotle understands that, but also understands that DD is less likely to move so many assets to set the team up for the future. A good example of that is the extension talks with Hardy. That shouldn't happen, but it probably will. Others here want DD to hold onto Davis and Wieters for the next 2 seasons. Stotle would have cut his losses early. I'd trade them this upcoming off season.

In the end, DD's decisions on Hardy, Wieters and Davis will tell the story of how this franchise sets up in 2015 and beyond.

And as I've said many many times this off-season, it's the moves over the next 18 months that will really matter. I don't think 2014 is all that important.

One note on my "plan" vs DD's "plan", committing to McCann, etc. for big money only makes sense if you are cutting the payroll in other areas. The goal there was to limit mid-market expenditures that carry higher risk in exchange for either 1) more certainty at higher cost, or 2) cost certainty at a lower rate with longer period of control (guys like Rendon, any number of Braves arms, etc.).

[Stotle]

But isn't this the future now? Didn't we set the team up for this future? By trading Bedard for Jones and Tillman, by trading Koji for Davis and Hunter, by selecting Matt Wieters and Bundy and Gausman? By trading a bag of balls for Hardy?

We spent all this time trying to build for some kind of future, now we're finally here, and people want to blow it up and send it down the line again.

You might be improving team flexibility for the future, but who knows if the actual team will be any good? It's pretty good right now, and it just got better. AND we've got a nice little farm system developing underneath.

Also, I'm just not buying that Ellsbury would be worth anywhere near what it would have cost to obtain him, so that's a fundamental disagreement there for sure. I would have loved McCann, though.

If the future is now, I don't believe rolling the dice on Jimenez (with a length commitment) and Cruz as a one-year placeholder are acceptable "go for it" moves. As I said, I'm perfectly comfortable with being wrong. My own evaluation of those players leads me to believe they are not likely to improve the team enough for it to be a likely playoff contender.

[UpstateNYfan]

Johnson was a pretty big piece of the core if you consider his role and success on the team, and he didn't get a worthwhile return. So, you can definitely argue both sides. Core =/= guaranteed return. It just relates to how you fit on the team. Johnson was a damn good pitcher who made up a part of the Orioles' core, but he was so expensive that he didn't get a good return.

Big piece of the core is a bit much. Everyday players and starting 5 pitchers are corp. To make a closer worthwhile you have to have a lead going into the ninth. Closers have nothing to do with that.

[Ruzious]

I clearly think the Orioles view themselves as doing just that with this team. Whether they do remains to be seen, but I think the addition of Jimenez and Cruz clearly signals that Duquette has the going for it mentality. You don't sign two players for $20 million next year if you think it only makes you marginally better. You can argue whether they are correct or not, but I highly doubt Duquette thinks these moves make them just marginally better.

That's how I see it, and I agree with Duquette - seeing that the AL East is without a dominant roster. I appreciate that the front office is taking a shot. And it's not just that. This organization went through 14 straight losing seasons before finally making progress. Falling down to below .500 and liking it was not an option that fans were going to accept. I think they appreciate that the O's management took a shot - even if it doesn't end up paying off.

[Stotle]

It's hard for me to believe that the Yankees, desperate for a catcher and criticized by the NY media for letting Martin go, would have let the Orioles out-marble them for McCann.

We don't really have any way to know. A lot of folks didn't think the Tigers could go from one of the worst teams in baseball to a FA destination some ten years ago, either. It's about selling your organization to the free agent. If McCann believes in your plan, and you pay him, I think there's a chance you get him. Maybe not a good chance -- who know?