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ZiPS projected record for the Orioles with Jimenez+Cruz: 78-84


skanar

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They had us under .500 last year too. I give their projections the same weight I give all preseason record predictions: None.

I first looked at it and saw that we were to score almost a quarter of a run worse then last year. Yes Davis won't be the same player but we added Cruz and Manny has another year under his belt and Nick should improve.

Then i looked at the pojections for Davis, Machado and Jones and they had them hitting .273 on average. IF those three guys hit .273 together i will eat my hat.

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These projections believe that Davis, Machado, Jones, Hardy, Lough, Chen, Tillman, Gonzalez, and Jimenez will all be worse than they were last year, and many of them worse by pretty big chunks of OPS or ERA or WAR or whatever you want to use. So it's easy to see why they would have a discouraging result.

But I am not worried about it. Each of the past two years the projection systems way undervalued the Orioles at the beginning of the year. This year's model puts us on par with the Phillies and Brewers. Even factoring in the tough competition of the AL East, that just seems off. If you look piece by piece, we definitely seem superior to those teams in most or all facets of the game.

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A positive note - the projections are also putting the difference between 1st and last at only 10 games. The difference between 1st and 2nd is only 5.

That's the tightest division in baseball - if only a few things break our way (Wieters / Nick bouncing back a bit, Tillman continuing to improve, Ubaldo being a solid 3 era guy) we can be looking at a run at the division.

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