ZiPS projected record for the Orioles with Jimenez+Cruz: 78-84

[waroriole]

Considering since 2010, he has been a LF, and moving to DH, reduces the impact his bad defense has on his WAR.

His positional adjustment will decrease too. It's not like you just move Jeter from SS to 1B and then his WAR increases because his defense isn't as bad. The positional adjustment is significant.

[RVAbird]

His WAR in the past has been dragged down by his awful defense. Presumably, if he puts up the same offensive numbers as a DH, his total WAR would be a little better.

No, that's not true. DHs simply are not that valuable unless they hit a ton. The positional adjustment for a full time LF/RF is -7.5. For a full time DH it's -17.5. So, offensive production from a corner outfielder is worth an extra win (fWAR) than equal production would be from a DH. He's been about -4 to -7 defensively over the past few years (by most metrics). So by making the switch, in theory, his production is a little less valuable.

It's just very difficult to get surplus value out of a guy who only contributes 4-6 PAs per game and nothing on the defensive side. The threshold is much higher. That's why some of us think investing $8 million and losing a second round pick, even if for a relatively safe one year deal, is not a good value move.

[malkusm]

If you want to project us as the 4th best team in the AL East, fine. I can understand the argument, but it's a crazy to think this team will be under .500.

I think the Rays, Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees should all finish pretty close (provided relatively healthy seasons and no unforeseen collapses).

They actually have us in last in the division. They projected the Blue Jays at 82-80. :laughlol:

[charles_goos]

They had us under .500 last year too. I give their projections the same weight I give all preseason record predictions: None.

Exactly. Well said.

Not only the projections are bad but baseball is very hard to predict, it's like predicting the weather. Remember the Global Warming fiasco?

[clapdiddy]

What did Zips predict for the O's record in 2012 and 2013?

[Frobby]

ZiPS don't know zippo.

So we'll score .24 runs a game less than last year, and allow .15 runs per game more? I'll take that bet.

By the way, a lot of this comes from them assuming that our starting position players will play far less than last year, and their replacements will be inept.

Wieters 480 PA (579)

Davis 595 PA (673)

Hardy 623 PA (644)

Machado 455 PA (710)

Jones 595 PA (689)

Markakis 560 PA (700)

Pretty much, they are assuming that every one of those guys misses about 25 games with injuries. While I do think we'll see some injuries from this group in 2014, while we really didn't last year, offhand that seems pretty pessimistic.

[RVAbird]

I highly recommend The Signal and the Noise for those having a hard time differentiating between predictions and projections. I also think it would help if Fangraphs and other sites posted weighted averages for projection systems rather than static lines.

[malkusm]

I highly recommend The Signal and the Noise for those having a hard time differentiating between predictions and projections. I also think it would help if Fangraphs and other sites posted weighted averages for projection systems rather than static lines.

Great book. Yes, confidence intervals would be much better. But confidence intervals would probably be so wide as to be completely meaningless.

[Spy Fox]

I highly recommend The Signal and the Noise for those having a hard time differentiating between predictions and projections. I also think it would help if Fangraphs and other sites posted weighted averages for projection systems rather than static lines.

Yes, and your point about the projections/predictions difference is why, as people are pointing out, these ZIPS standings seem to have a lot of middle ground teams without much to the extreme end. (E.g. only one team over 90 wins.)

[isestrex]

Nelson Cruz offensive WAR compared to defensive WAR

                            Year   Age  PA WAR oWAR dWAR2009    28 515 2.3  2.3 -0.52010    29 445 4.3  3.9 -0.12011    30 513 1.3  1.8 -1.22012    31 642 0.4  1.9 -2.22013    32 456 2.0  2.2 -0.8

1.2 would be a career low but not outside the realm of possibility. As with Jones, Davis, Hardy and Wieters, Zips likes to take a player's track records, highlight their most problematic characteristic and assume everything will result in having the worst year of their career. Forgive me if I don't take ZIPS too seriously.

[25 Nuggets]

These projections believe that Davis, Machado, Jones, Hardy, Lough, Chen, Tillman, Gonzalez, and Jimenez will all be worse than they were last year, and many of them worse by pretty big chunks of OPS or ERA or WAR or whatever you want to use. So it's easy to see why they would have a discouraging result.

But I am not worried about it. Each of the past two years the projection systems way undervalued the Orioles at the beginning of the year. This year's model puts us on par with the Phillies and Brewers. Even factoring in the tough competition of the AL East, that just seems off. If you look piece by piece, we definitely seem superior to those teams in most or all facets of the game.

I remember during the MLBN "Top 10 Right Now" shows that Bill James himself had our core players rated higher than the almighty Shredder. Indeed it is not to worry about -- in fact it could be fodder for Buck.

[25 Nuggets]

Wieters 480 PA (579)

Davis 595 PA (673)

Hardy 623 PA (644)

Machado 455 PA (710)

Jones 595 PA (689)

Markakis 560 PA (700)

Pretty much, they are assuming that every one of those guys misses about 25 games with injuries. While I do think we'll see some injuries from this group in 2014, while we really didn't last year, offhand that seems pretty pessimistic.

There's why Machado is projected to drop from 6.4 to 3.0 WAR. They don't think he'll even play until the summer.

[skanar]

Nelson Cruz offensive WAR compared to defensive WAR

                            Year   Age  PA WAR oWAR dWAR2009    28 515 2.3  2.3 -0.52010    29 445 4.3  3.9 -0.12011    30 513 1.3  1.8 -1.22012    31 642 0.4  1.9 -2.22013    32 456 2.0  2.2 -0.8

1.2 would be a career low but not outside the realm of possibility. As with Jones, Davis, Hardy and Wieters, Zips likes to take a player's track records, highlight their most problematic characteristic and assume everything will result in having the worst year of their career. Forgive me if I don't take ZIPS too seriously.

By the stats you just posted, Cruz had a 0.4 WAR in 2012. His total WAR over 2011-2013 was 3.7, so the average was about 1.2....

[MurphDogg]

By the stats you just posted, Cruz had a 0.4 WAR in 2012. His total WAR over 2011-2013 was 3.7, so the average was about 1.2....

oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR.

[25 Nuggets]

oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR.

something that I've always questioned about.