Gausman still could be the fifth starter right away

[ADZ23]

I don't see it with Gausman. I'm sure he looks great, I don't doubt that...I just didn't see the hype last year. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

Funny, I felt this way about Bundy. Gausman I have a bit more faith in tho.

[atomic]

Starting Gausman makes no sense. Why pay Jimenez all that Money? Gausman is pitching in triple a if everyone is healthy. Let him come up when he dominates in the minors.

[El Gordo]

Last season Gausman had 133 IP He is not ready to give us 180-200IP. Start him at the beginning of the season on the ML club you lose him at the end. In Norfolk they can manage his innings so that they can have him at the end when they will need him most.

[eddie83]

Last season Gausman had 133 IP He is not ready to give us 180-200IP. Start him at the beginning of the season on the ML club you lose him at the end. In Norfolk they can manage his innings so that they can have him at the end when they will need him most.

Exactly. If he is ready to pop this year than it would be great if he was pitching in September and October when we would need him the most. I know you have to get there first but look at Wacha last year in St Louis.

[scOtt]

Last season Gausman had 133 IP He is not ready to give us 180-200IP. Start him at the beginning of the season on the ML club you lose him at the end. In Norfolk they can manage his innings so that they can have him at the end when they will need him most.

THIS is the reason. I also think he needs some time at AAA to develop, but they can also limit his innings down there. He only gets 160 to 170 this year. If they want him in September/October they have to send him down.

[Capn Vivi]

I don't see it with Gausman. I'm sure he looks great, I don't doubt that...I just didn't see the hype last year. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

Well, just take a look at his numbers (but ignore has actual performance). In 47.2 innings in 2013, Gausman struck out 49 (9.25 K/9) and walked 13 (2.45 BB/9) to give him a 3.77:1 ratio.

His .328 BABIP and 64.4% LOB% were pretty well off the league averages (.294 and 73.5% in 2013) and as a result, his 3.99 FIP and 3.04 xFIP are significantly below his actual 2013 ERA (5.66).

Fangraphs actually liked him for 0.4 WAR last season, which should be an indictment of their system.

[LookinUp]

I don't see it with Gausman. I'm sure he looks great, I don't doubt that...I just didn't see the hype last year. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

I forget which talking head it was (Gammons, Stark, other?), but I recently heard Gausman could be the O's version of Michael Wacha this year. People are impressed.

[AlbionHero]

Well, just take a look at his numbers (but ignore has actual performance). In 47.2 innings in 2013, Gausman struck out 49 (9.25 K/9) and walked 13 (2.45 BB/9) to give him a 3.77:1 ratio.

His .328 BABIP and 64.4% LOB% were pretty well off the league averages (.294 and 73.5% in 2013) and as a result, his 3.99 FIP and 3.04 xFIP are significantly below his actual 2013 ERA (5.66).

Fangraphs actually liked him for 0.4 WAR last season, which should be an indictment of their system.

Steamer Fangraphs Projected ERA for our starters:

Chris Tillman: 4.24 ERA

Ubaldo Jimenez: 4.31 ERA

Wei-Yin Chen: 4.32 ERA

Miguel Gonzalez: 4.50 ERA

Bud Norris: 4.33 ERA

Then we have Gausman:

Kevin Gausman: 3.97 ERA

All of his advanced metrics tell us hes a breakout candidate... he had lots of bad luck last year, and if he can have better luck this year, he could be our top pitcher. I really don't like the idea of just banishing him to AAA because he had bad luck last year.

[El Gordo]

Steamer Fangraphs Projected ERA for our starters:

Chris Tillman: 4.24 ERA

Ubaldo Jimenez: 4.31 ERA

Wei-Yin Chen: 4.32 ERA

Miguel Gonzalez: 4.50 ERA

Bud Norris: 4.33 ERA

Then we have Gausman:

Kevin Gausman: 3.97 ERA

All of his advanced metrics tell us hes a breakout candidate... he had lots of bad luck last year, and if he can have better luck this year, he could be our top pitcher. I really don't like the idea of just banishing him to AAA because he had bad luck last year.

I like Gausman but those projections are funny. Gonzo e.g. has a career average ERA of 3.58 yet some how he is going to fall to 4.50 ?

[AlbionHero]

I like Gausman but those projections are funny. Gonzo e.g. has a career average ERA of 3.58 yet some how he is going to fall to 4.50 ?

Its because he has a career FIP of 4.42... Tillman as well has a had a 4.25 and 4.42 FIP the last 2 years. Laws of averages says that they won't be able to continue having a lower ERA than their true pitching ability, so they project their ERA will be closer to their talent level this year.

These kind of projections are a big reason why major projection systems have us a 75-77 win team this year. They expect significant regression in our starting pitching staff.

[Frobby]

FIPitty doo dah. If Gausman does post a sub-4.00 ERA this year, it will be starting in June or later. Just my opinion.

[El Gordo]

FIPitty doo dah. If Gausman does post a sub-4.00 ERA this year, it will be starting in June or later. Just my opinion.

Well if we go by FIP Palmer was a so so pitcher, 2.86 3.50.

[Frobby]

Well if we go by FIP Palmer was a so so pitcher, 2.86 3.50.

Well, maybe....his pitching certainly was not "fielding independent," and he would be the first to tell you so. Having Brooks, Belanger, Blair and Grich behind you definitely saves quite a few runs.

[El Gordo]

Well, maybe....his pitching certainly was not "fielding independent," and he would be the first to tell you so. Having Brooks, Belanger, Blair and Grich behind you definitely saves quite a few runs.

Right mostly luck and fortunate circumstance, very little skill involved. One thing that puzzles me is how HR are regarded as things under a pitchers control, but GB are not. A pitcher can control how far a FB travels? Whether the batter he is facing has power or not, can square it up or miss it?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Nothing like a good FIP Fight.