Mets wanted Dylan Bundy for Daniel Murphy

[DrungoHazewood]

I never said this was a good trade for Baltimore (infact I said the opposite a couple times, including the very post of mine you responded to -- it started "It's not a good deal for Baltimore...", I believe).

Understood.

I was just offering up that the calculus can at times be more nuanced than "6 years of cheap control for potentially the next great young ace versus two years of relatively expensive meh." Also that GMs, for a number of reason, have different valuations for players than Fangraphs -- particularly when you talk about the speculative value of prospects with varying developmental time horizons.

I don't care what kind of sliding scale a GM is using, if he's trading an asset like Bundy for a fungible talent like Murphy he's not doing his job. He could acquire the production of Daniel Murphy for far less, as Duquette showed last year when he got equal/better production out of the K Mart blue light special bin for $4.73 (of course not counting the money allocated to Roberts years ago).

[Tryptamine]

This is certainly not a good trade for the Os, but if you're expecting any team to offer anywhere near full value for a guy coming off TJS then you're kidding yourself. I feel like the general consensus has gone from thinking to thinking TJS is no big deal at all. There is still a very real chance that the player never regains form.

[Number5]

Yeah. I think that the Mets were most likely fishing for a counter-offer, perhaps hoping for someone like Rodriguez. Fortunately, the Orioles didn't bite.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is certainly not a good trade for the Os, but if you're expecting any team to offer anywhere near full value for a guy coming off TJS then you're kidding yourself. I feel like the general consensus has gone from thinking to thinking TJS is no big deal at all. There is still a very real chance that the player never regains form.

So why even consider a trade when you know you're discounting his value beyond reason? Even if Bundy comes back, isn't anywhere close to his ceiling, and ends up as Wei-Yin Chen for six years he's far more valuable than a random second baseman for two years.

[awannabegeek]

Why would you trade a major league above average second baseman for less than a decent prospect? It is not like Bundy is ready to step-in and pitch this year. He just had a major surgery and probably won't even be productively pitching this year. Who knows if he will ever get back to form. And he was still just a prospect before the surgery. I don't know why people overvalue our prospects so much.

Maybe it wouldn't be a good trade but it is certainly not a crazy deal.

Why would you trade potential upside of a #1 for a league-averagish second baseman? A second baseman last year that was less valuable than the Orioles collection of second basemen? Cost-controlled talent is highly valuable. If you want to make the overvaluation argument, great, but Daniel Murphy is not the guy I want to bet Bundy being a bust on. It's negligible improvement. I highly doubt 2014/2015 Daniel Murphy would be more valuable than 2015 Bundy + 2014/2015 Orioles 2B's.

[theobird]

ell this is the same team t proposed Ike Davis for EdRod. You can propose any trade you want, all it takes is for somebody to bite and you got a winner. I don't blame the Mets for making those proposals, and I credit Dan for not biting. Not too much to talk about here.

[MrOrange82]

Why would you trade potential upside of a #1 for a league-averagish second baseman? A second baseman last year that was less valuable than the Orioles collection of second basemen? Cost-controlled talent is highly valuable. If you want to make the overvaluation argument, great, but Daniel Murphy is not the guy I want to bet Bundy being a bust on. It's negligible improvement. I highly doubt 2014/2015 Daniel Murphy would be more valuable than 2015 Bundy + 2014/2015 Orioles 2B's.

Again, I don't think the trade would have been good for the O's, but I don't see why people have to denigrate Murphy to make their points. According to fangraphs, in 2013 Murphy was 7th in baseball in terms of WAR for 2B. The guys ahead of him on that list were Utley, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Pedroia, Cano, and Matt Carpenter. Murphy isn't a good defender, and I don't think he'd be a substantial enough upgrade to merit trading Bundy, but he's not exactly average, either.

[LookinUp]

I was just offering up that the calculus can at times be more nuanced than "6 years of cheap control for potentially the next great young ace versus two years of relatively expensive meh." Also that GMs, for a number of reason, have different valuations for players than Fangraphs -- particularly when you talk about the speculative value of prospects with varying developmental time horizons.

This was certainly part of Bavasi's rationale in the Bedard trade.

[LookinUp]

Again, I don't think the trade would have been good for the O's, but I don't see why people have to denigrate Murphy to make their points. According to fangraphs, in 2013 Murphy was 7th in baseball in terms of WAR for 2B. The guys ahead of him on that list were Utley, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Pedroia, Cano, and Matt Carpenter. Murphy isn't a good defender, and I don't think he'd be a substantial enough upgrade to merit trading Bundy, but he's not exactly average, either.

So you're saying that 2B is an incredibly weak position right now. Agreed.

[MurphDogg]

Again, I don't think the trade would have been good for the O's, but I don't see why people have to denigrate Murphy to make their points. According to fangraphs, in 2013 Murphy was 7th in baseball in terms of WAR for 2B. The guys ahead of him on that list were Utley, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Pedroia, Cano, and Matt Carpenter. Murphy isn't a good defender, and I don't think he'd be a substantial enough upgrade to merit trading Bundy, but he's not exactly average, either.

Fangraphs has him at 7th (actually 8th, he is behind Omar Infante who didn't qualify for the batting title). Baseball Reference has him as 17th among players who played at least half their games at second. link

[hoosiers]

I don't think the Mets GM was serious in his offer or asking price.

I think it was probably a starting point in negotiations as in, "I'm offering up a guy who will be your starting 2B on a team expected to compete so I want quality in return for giving up a fan favorite."

The Os under prior GMs had crazy asking prices.

IMO, the point is to say - hey, I need a good prospect - not a flyer on your 12th best prospect, but one of the better ones. Because, if you don't ask, you won't get. And if it is not known that you want a good prospect, and you open your bidding at Michael Ohlman, then you might get less. Better to ask for Bundy and be talked down to MO. Better to make the Os realize the player being sought is not a salary dump, but a respectable player.

[OFFNY]

Again' date=' I don't think the trade would have been good for the O's, but I don't see why people have to denigrate Murphy to make their points.[/size'] According to fangraphs, in 2013 Murphy was 7th in baseball in terms of WAR for 2B. The guys ahead of him on that list were Utley, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Pedroia, Cano, and Matt Carpenter. Murphy isn't a good defender, and I don't think he'd be a substantial enough upgrade to merit trading Bundy, but he's not exactly average, either.

Yeah, I agree with you.

I wouldn't make the trade either, but Murphy has been a solid-but-not spectacular player for the Mets in his tenure with them.

[atomic]

Why would you trade potential upside of a #1 for a league-averagish second baseman? A second baseman last year that was less valuable than the Orioles collection of second basemen? Cost-controlled talent is highly valuable. If you want to make the overvaluation argument, great, but Daniel Murphy is not the guy I want to bet Bundy being a bust on. It's negligible improvement. I highly doubt 2014/2015 Daniel Murphy would be more valuable than 2015 Bundy + 2014/2015 Orioles 2B's.

Murphy is better than league average and we don't have league average. You are being ultimate homer. If Bundy were healthy it might be different but no way is it a one way trade offer. You aren't going to get full value for a prospect who just.had tj surgery.

[skanar]

Murphy is better than league average and we don't have league average. You are being ultimate homer. If Bundy were healthy it might be different but no way is it a one way trade offer. You aren't going to get full value for a prospect who just.had tj surgery.

I have a (somewhat loaded) pair of questions for you:

1) What WAR value do you expect from the Orioles' current options at 2B (Flaherty et al)? Obviously below MLB average, but 1.5? 1.0? -2?

2) What WAR value do you expect from Daniel Murphy next year? Obviously above league-average, but 2.5? 3.0?

Also: you understand that Daniel Murphy is going to make $5.7M this season, right? And that he's a FA after next season? And that Flaherty, Weeks, and Schoop together can make a maximum of $1.5M this year and that's only if all three are on the MLB team all season?

[DrungoHazewood]

I have a (somewhat loaded) pair of questions for you:

1) What WAR value do you expect from the Orioles' current options at 2B (Flaherty et al)? Obviously below MLB average, but 1.5? 1.0? -2?

2) What WAR value do you expect from Daniel Murphy next year? Obviously above league-average, but 2.5? 3.0?

Also: you understand that Daniel Murphy is going to make $5.7M this season, right? And that he's a FA after next season? And that Flaherty, Weeks, and Schoop together can make a maximum of $1.5M this year and that's only if all three are on the MLB team all season?

I don't think he cares. He sees Murphy as an upgrade and Bundy as a suspect. That's really as deep as it goes.