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why are people so eager to overpay manny machado?


cacavolante

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I'd argue that 10/$100 mm is not out of line with the 7/$58 mm that Simmons is getting. Let's break down Simmons' deal:

Pre-arb 2: $1 mm

Pre-arb 3: $3 mm (has a better than 50% shot at being a Super-2)

Arb 1: $6 mm

Arb 2: $8 mm

Arb 3: $11 mm

FA1: $13 mm

FA2: $15 mm

His two FA years are being paid at an average of $14 mm/yr. Tack on three extra FA years for Manny at that price, and there's your 10/$100 mm. When you consider that Manny is three years younger than Simmons, tacking on the three extra FA years gets him tied up through the same age as Simmons will be when his contract ends. So, I don't see a 10/$100 mm deal for Manny as being more expensive than Simmons' deal, just somewhat riskier because of the extra years involved (but also a higher chance that it ends up being a bargain if Manny stays healthy). I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Exactly, and I think I would perfer the longer deal becasue we get Manny for his prime years. I would bet in ten years there will just as many players signing 30 million dollars contracts considering inflation and increased tv revenues as there are signing 20 million contracts today. I would also say it is safe to assume that in 7-10 years baseball will put more value defence than they do today. Obviously there is risk, but if Manny is a free agent at 26 or 27. He would looking for a deal that is well north of 200 million dollars.

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No good reason to think his defense would decline any time in the next 10 years. The strides he took in his year-20 season show improvement, so whether he lives up to expectations is dependent on what you expect. I expect .290 with 25 HRs in the future and see him solidly on that trajectory

No reason besides the fact that defense peaks early and declines like any other skill. It would have been more accurate to say you would expect a steady decline in defensive value from age 24 or 25 on.

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People were once eager to give Grady Sizemore big time money too...

Is your takeaway then that you shouldn't sign players to long contracts? Do you believe the risk is so high that getting cost certainty and significant discounts in free agent and arb years isn't worth it? Have you done the math?

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No reason besides the fact that defense peaks early and declines like any other skill. It would have been more accurate to say you would expect a steady decline in defensive value from age 24 or 25 on.
True, this is why Brooks' best years with the glove were ages 30-32 because all players adhere as slavishly to this rule as you do.
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I have no problem signing long term contracts, but let the guy prove himself first. There have been plenty of players over the years who look great their first season and then they struggle to adjust or fall off a cliff a couple years down the line. I don't feel safe signing a long term contract until the arbitration years since there are too many question marks. You might save money, but having a guy signed for 16-17 mil a year when hes struggling to stay at a major league level is a huge risk too.

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I have no problem signing long term contracts, but let the guy prove himself first. There have been plenty of players over the years who look great their first season and then they struggle to adjust or fall off a cliff a couple years down the line. I don't feel safe signing a long term contract until the arbitration years since there are too many question marks. You might save money, but having a guy signed for 16-17 mil a year when hes struggling to stay at a major league level is a huge risk too.
You can "feel safe" and most likely feel very sorry if you wait for his arbitration years to extend him. It makes sense to wait and see how he recovers from his injury and adjusts to his second year, but if he does well this season, you need to extend him next winter, or you probably wont have another chance. He was open to extension this year because his injury made him think but the longer he gets away from that and stays healthy the harder it will be to extend him. If you wait until his first arb year you will have less chance of extending him than you have of extending CD now.
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And thats a risk you take, too. I haven't seen enough from him to expect he will be a big enough offensive powerhouse to make up for his declining defense later on to give him big money yet. If he goes out and hits 20-25 homers this year and takes a few more walks, maybe I'll change my mind.

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And thats a risk you take, too. I haven't seen enough from him to expect he will be a big enough offensive powerhouse to make up for his declining defense later on to give him big money yet. If he goes out and hits 20-25 homers this year and takes a few more walks, maybe I'll change my mind.

I think these worries are a bit too conservative. According to BB-Ref, the most similar player through age 20 is Adrian Beltre, pretty good comparsion if you ask me (higher OBP, less XBH). I think Manny is going to be just fine. 14 HR every year is absolutely fine if he's hitting 50 doubles.

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I think the main reason is that folks don't understand how salaries in MLB work.

Some don't want Manny "mad" at the team.

Some just want the owner to spend money.

Which doesn't make sense. Because if you pay him money now he has no incentive to sign an extension that takes away some of his free agency years.

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Which doesn't make sense. Because if you pay him money now he has no incentive to sign an extension that takes away some of his free agency years.

Talking about incentives, it can also stunt a players growth to give him lots of guaranteed money early in his career since they may lose some of the motivation to get better if they don't have that carrot dangling infront of them. I'd much rather have a player wanting to get that big pay day down the line and continuing to get better and better instead of feeling comfortable and that he doesn't have to dedicate himself to training and working out in the gym as much.

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I just have to laugh at some of the notions expressed in this thread. Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robinson are HOF players in large part because of their superlative defense. Neither could hit much at the beginning or their careers they had to learn how to become decent hitters. Brooks would bat with his hands apart in his first years, ike the old guys of the dead ball era. If Brooks or Ozzie came up today "fans" would be howling for them to be released because they can't hit, not extended. Manny had a 33 RS year last season with the glove at age 20. Brooks at age 21 has a 7 RS season. Brooks did 33 once at age 31 after years of experience. You have to think Manny will improve with age, even if he does run into the Drungo prime directive and dutifully decline at age 25. As far as his bat, Manny's numbers last season are far better than Brooks' career average, and I'd be surprised if he didn't steadily improve. He'll never be Mike Schmidt with the bat, but Beltre seems well within his reach. Sorry Cal. Better than Brooks Robinson's glove with Beltre's bat, may not be Trout, but I'd say he's worth the risk of extending.

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I just have to laugh at some of the notions expressed in this thread. Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robinson are HOF players in large part because of their superlative defense. Neither could hit much at the beginning or their careers they had to learn how to become decent hitters. Brooks would bat with his hands apart in his first years, ike the old guys of the dead ball era. If Brooks or Ozzie came up today "fans" would be howling for them to be released because they can't hit, not extended. Manny had a 33 RS year last season with the glove at age 20. Brooks at age 21 has a 7 RS season. Brooks did 33 once at age 31 after years of experience. You have to think Manny will improve with age, even if he does run into the Drungo prime directive and dutifully decline at age 25. As far as his bat, Manny's numbers last season are far better than Brooks' career average, and I'd be surprised if he didn't steadily improve. He'll never be Mike Schmidt with the bat, but Beltre seems well within his reach. Sorry Cal. Better than Brooks Robinson's glove with Beltre's bat, may not be Trout, but I'd say he's worth the risk of extending.

For the last four years, Beltre has been Mike Schmidt with the bat.

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