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ESPN the magazine predicts the AL east


brianod

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The Orioles are going to "Crush" these predictions with their "A10" bomber. They are going to "Buck" the trends with "textbook" play. They will bring the other teams in the AL East to new "Lough(s)". They will unleash their "big game" hunter, "tasmanian devil" and and make their doubters eat "Kake(s)".

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Eh. It could well happen. I don't begrudge anyone's pre-season predictions. They're largely shots in the dark, since it's impossible to really guess how things will pan out over a 162 game season. Maybe the O's finish last. Maybe they don't. I'm not going to hate on ESPN for going with one of many possible outcomes.

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I think it has to do with pitching. Generally speaking, great pitching leads to more wins. The Orioles were an offensive beast last year and the best defense in the majors, but struggled with most of their starters being consistent.

So I think the media is saying "they dont have pitching" so won't win games, but to me, Our pitching almost has to be better than last season (blown saves, rough bullpen, shaky starts galore.) and our offense has to be better. I think the latter is tough as last year we put up a ton of runs. From a production standpoint we return our core offense and add a power bat in Cruz. Not only that, one of our top players had his worst season in a long time (Nick) and has had a good offseason.

TLDR; We've added bats, pitching can only get better, great defense. Record should improve over last year. I might be drinking some kool-aid and being optimistic, but just my 2 cents.

The Orioles were a league average offense and the best defense by fielding percentage, not by any meaningful metric. The Kansas City Royals owned the best defense in baseball.

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The Orioles were a league average offense and the best defense by fielding percentage, not by any meaningful metric. The Kansas City Royals owned the best defense in baseball.
By what measure were the O's a league average offense? Runs? Hits? OPS? BA?
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The defensive projection should account for this, right?

Yeah, but someone posted that it is unlikely that the pitchers will continue to outperform their xFIP which is simply not true. A pitcher pitching with above average defense should continually outperform his xFIP.

A better question is why Steamer and Oliver both project Tillman to have a higher FIP this season (they don't project xFIP) than in years past. They do project him to have a better ERA than FIP, due to defense, but I don't expect Tillman to regress in BB rate and K rate the way that the projection systems do. I tend to believe that a three year regression analysis of walk and strikeout rates doesn't necessarily make sense for young pitchers, and that the walk rate that a 26 year old pitcher had three years ago is not as indicative of future success as the walk rate that a 29 year-old pitcher had three years ago.

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By what measure were the O's a league average offense? Runs? Hits? OPS? BA?

wRC+, they play in a hitters park. It's not fair to compare teams by those metrics straight up. Unless of course you actually believe the Colorado Rockies were the tenth best offense in baseball?

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wRC+, they play in a hitters park. It's not fair to compare teams by those metrics straight up. Unless of course you actually believe the Colorado Rockies were the tenth best offense in baseball?

They were 10th out of 30 in RC+ and 7th out of 15 in the AL. That still puts them above average.

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Does it really matter? Orioles were +1. This seems to be a minor point when what we are talking about is a ten win difference needing to be resolved.

Again, though, I assume much of the projection is derived from ZiPS, but I have no clue. ESPN usually uses ZiPS.

You can assume that, but they don't say. They did call their chemistry model "proprietary," as if they're proudly copyrighting this nonsense. Funny how the arbitrary chemistry components always add up to a whole number because we don't want e.g. the Orioles to have 77.2 wins. When the focus of the article is this...sh..tuff, then it tells us you might as well have picked numbers out of a hat and you've explored the depth of ESPN's analysis.
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