ESPN the magazine predicts the AL east

[PA724_Oriole]

Tampa 93-69

Redsox 89-73

Yankees - 82-80

Blue Jays - 79-83

Orioles - 77-85

Thoughts?

Baltimore could have a winning season the next five years but as long as New York and Boston are the division outsiders will always disrespect the Os.

I Definitely think Blue Jays improve from last year, I dont see them finishing better than last still. Btw, BoSox are.going to be taking a step back. Jacoby is a bigger loss than they think and to me their SP is no better than ours. More experience.which might give them a slight edge but not by much

[Can_of_corn]

Baltimore could have a winning season the next five years but as long as New York and Boston are the division outsiders will always disrespect the Os.

I Definitely think Blue Jays improve from last year, I dont see them finishing better than last still. Btw, BoSox are.going to be taking a step back. Jacoby is a bigger loss than they think and to me their SP is no better than ours. More experience.which might give them a slight edge but not by much

Do you think the Rays are disrespected?

[clapdiddy]

I say two things:

1. Who cares about ESPN the magazine?

2. Let's play some baseball!

[CaptainRedbeard]

That depends on how you define average. 100 wRC+ is the mean average, but I think it makes most sense to look at median when comparing teams across the league. Also, I am a little confused as to why the total sum of wRC+ is 2989 instead of 3000. That seems like an unusually steep rounding error.

Regardless, I am encouraged that the Orioles had such offensive success with the 25th highest BABIP. If that bounces back to league average that accounts for a little bit of extra offense right there.

I don't think you can talk about team BABIP you can the same way you could an individual. Last year the Orioles had the 3rd highest fly ball percentage in baseball, which justifies the the low BABIP.

[canonfaz]

I must say, since cancelling my cable TV last year, I have missed ESPN very little. I guess if you were an NBA or Nascar fan, it is ok to watch. I just find their "analysis" very very terrible. Always catering to the lowest common denominator and looking for a scandal in every story.

[incubus]

I must say, since cancelling my cable TV last year, I have missed ESPN very little. I guess if you were an NBA or Nascar fan, it is ok to watch. I just find their "analysis" very very terrible. Always catering to the lowest common denominator and looking for a scandal in every story.

Yeah, the only time I pay any attention to ESPN is when they are airing a College Basketball game I am interested in (which is usually about 3-4 times a season.)

[incubus]

P.S. How has no one posted The Dude gif yet? Where's Scott?

[Kalkan]

You can assume that, but they don't say. They did call their chemistry model "proprietary," as if they're proudly copyrighting this nonsense. Funny how the arbitrary chemistry components always add up to a whole number because we don't want e.g. the Orioles to have 77.2 wins. When the focus of the article is this...sh..tuff, then it tells us you might as well have picked numbers out of a hat and you've explored the depth of ESPN's analysis.

So it is a baby and bath water situation?

[weams]

So it is a baby and bath water situation?

No. It's a ridiculous made up fantasy of a bath. With no baby existing.

[Kalkan]

No. It's a ridiculous made up fantasy of a bath. With no baby existing.

Well I am glad we figured out it is all a house of less after careful review of their methods.

[JayThomas]

My Detached Side of Brain:

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees/Orioles

Jays

My Orioles Fan Side of Brain:

Rays

Red Sox/Orioles

Blue Jays

Yankees

Even the rosiest of pictures, in my mind, has this being a tough year for Baltimore to make the playoffs. I may be too high on the Rangers and Royals.

Another friendly wager. Orioles finish higher than the Red Sux.

I think they played way over their head (talent level) last year; I don't think they've improved; I think we have improved greatly.

I'll take our outfield over theirs every day:

O's: Lough/Cruz, Jones, Markakis

Sux: Some mash of Bradley Jr., Sizemore, Gomes, Nava, Victorino, Carp

I'll take our infield over theirs every day:

O's: Machado, Hardy, Flaherty, Davis

Sux: Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Napoli

I'll take our catcher every day:

O's: Wieters

Sux: Pierzynski

I'll give Boston the DH, although at some point Ortiz has to slow down:

O's: Cruz

Sux: Ortiz

I give Boston the starters (although I think Lackey pitched way over his head last year and will regress, and I think replacing last year's back end of the rotation with Ubaldo and Norris will be huge):

O's: Tillman, Jimenez, Chen, Gonzalez, Norris

Sux: Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy

Bullpen - I really like ours and I don't know enough about Boston's so I'll call it a toss-up.

[PeteU]

*Ahem*. Last year's cover:

Translation? They're effin' morons.

[eddie83]

I certainly think there is upside this year, and fully expect them to be at least slightly above average this year. It just bugs me that everyone believes they were some offensive juggernaut last year. They weren't. The Rays were a better offensive club last year and most people in the Baltimore area will tell you the Rays aren't a good offensive team.

I get your point but the Orioles outscored the Rays last year in road games. If the Rays are a better offense then why did the Orioles score more then them on the road? It may be a simplistic way of looking at it but to me that has a lot of merit.

I actually enjoy this stuff. I like it when they are picked to be last. Anything is possible and I do think Tampa is the team to beat. Outside of Bucholtz getting hurt,Boston had a lot go right last year. The Yankees by the way Brian Cashman looks at things were overachievers last year. Their infield is terrible. I think Toronto will be better but by how much? I like the fact that our pitching depth looks much stronger then what we had last year at the start. Granted we didn't know Hammel would implode but we had no real 5th starter until Feldman was acquired in July. We played like a 100 win team on offense and defense in the first half. Johnson had 6 blown saves-all losses by July and we lead the league in losses leading after 8 innings.

I am curious about how good the wild card contenders will be from the Central and West. Will Cleveland be as good? I think the Tigers will miss Fister and although Prince didn't have a great year he will be missed. KC lost Santana. Oakland has a lot of pitching issues already. Texas looks strong but that won't hurt us unless another contender comes from that division. Will the Angels pitch better? I would be very surprised if we end up with a losing record, very surprised.

[weams]

I think the Tigers will miss Fister and although Prince didn't have a great year he will be missed. KC lost Santana. Oakland has a lot of pitching issues already. Texas looks strong but that won't hurt us unless another contender comes from that division. Will the Angels pitch better? I would be very surprised if we end up with a losing record, very surprised.

Fister has elbow inflammation. It appears they would have missed him anyway.

[Stotle]

Another friendly wager. Orioles finish higher than the Red Sux.

I think they played way over their head (talent level) last year; I don't think they've improved; I think we have improved greatly.

I'll take our outfield over theirs every day:

O's: Lough/Cruz, Jones, Markakis

Sux: Some mash of Bradley Jr., Sizemore, Gomes, Nava, Victorino, Carp

I'll take our infield over theirs every day:

O's: Machado, Hardy, Flaherty, Davis

Sux: Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Napoli

I'll take our catcher every day:

O's: Wieters

Sux: Pierzynski

I'll give Boston the DH, although at some point Ortiz has to slow down:

O's: Cruz

Sux: Ortiz

I give Boston the starters (although I think Lackey pitched way over his head last year and will regress, and I think replacing last year's back end of the rotation with Ubaldo and Norris will be huge):

O's: Tillman, Jimenez, Chen, Gonzalez, Norris

Sux: Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy

Bullpen - I really like ours and I don't know enough about Boston's so I'll call it a toss-up.

I do think Boston is in a position where their performance could be impacted by a couple big injuries (like most teams), and they have some players that are pretty big risks in that department (Napoli, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Buchholz). If the team stays relatively healthy, I think they can fit into that upper-80s to low-90s win spectrum. Bogaerts has a chance to make a Machadoian impact and may be a better overall hitter. I'm probably less confident in Boston than I am in Tampa, but sure I'll gladly make a bragging rights wager. Again, one I hope I lose!