Fan Graphs: Getting the Extra Year of Team Control is Good and Proper Business (Schoop)

[Guest rochester]

I had to check the date after reading this..... time flies but it's not April 1rst...yet.

[tnsmith90]

But you are not even attempting to think rationally. Even if you are right, you are costing us a whole year of Schoop making marginal differences all season long in 2021. All because you can't wait until June. Remember as well, he had a hot spring but this is a guy with a .268 career average in the minors. A lot of your "what ifs" and "marginal differences" will have to happen for two months of Schoop now to be worth a year of Schoop in 2021. Just doesn't make sense.

And the more you tell me how great Schoop is, the more I want to get 7 years out of him instead of 6.

Haha I am thinking rationally. You just are not understanding my rationale. There is a difference.

My rationale has to do with the fact that we are in contention mode NOW. We are trying to win a world series this year. To do that we have to make the playoffs. Usually the playoff race comes down to one or two games at the end of the season; particularly in a tight division like we are in. These early games count just as much as the later games do. So, to concede giving ourselves the best chance to win every single game, may be to concede a playoff spot. I think we are best served by doing everything we can to win right now with the guys we have while we are still a team that can contend.

Plus, to make a true rational, well informed choice about the opportunity cost of the 7th year vs. the opportunity cost of possibly conceding a few crucial games this season you would need to know a lot about that 7th year. You would have to project Schoop's true position, project the production he will give in his 7th year, project the market price of that production at that position in his 7th year, project what we would pay him in arbitration, then take the difference in money saved and discount it back to present day at an appropriate discount rate that reflects the risk inherent in not only the projections but Schoop as a player. Are you sure that you really know what that 7th year is worth?

All of that being said, we can still send him down later on to gain the extra year of service time, and even if we don't we could still lock him up early if we are that sure about him.

I don't know if Schoop is great, but I do know that if he is the best man for the job, then I want him up in Baltimore to start the season.

[tnsmith90]

How do we know Schoop is the best guy? I like him as a player, have for years, but there is nothing even close to a guarantee that the O's will be a better team with him then without him to start the season.

What is your main argument? That he has hit the crap out of the ball in ST? Schoop is still very young and hasn't put up impressive numbers in the minors the last couple of years.

I don't know that Schoop is the best guy. I leave that up to Buck to decide. I am more than willing to put my trust in his baseball judgement. I just think that if Buck and the rest of the coaching staff really believe that Schoop is the best guy for the job then we would be shooting ourselves in the foot by sending him down.

[Orioles4Life21]

I understand both sides to this argument, but I just think it would be irresponsible to lose a year of control over two months, especially when Schoop only OPS'd .697 in AAA a year ago.

[Frobby]

Haha I am thinking rationally. You just are not understanding my rationale. There is a difference.

My rationale has to do with the fact that we are in contention mode NOW. We are trying to win a world series this year. To do that we have to make the playoffs. Usually the playoff race comes down to one or two games at the end of the season; particularly in a tight division like we are in. These early games count just as much as the later games do. So, to concede giving ourselves the best chance to win every single game, may be to concede a playoff spot. I think we are best served by doing everything we can to win right now with the guys we have while we are still a team that can contend.

Plus, to make a true rational, well informed choice about the opportunity cost of the 7th year vs. the opportunity cost of possibly conceding a few crucial games this season you would need to know a lot about that 7th year. You would have to project Schoop's true position, project the production he will give in his 7th year, project the market price of that production at that position in his 7th year, project what we would pay him in arbitration, then take the difference in money saved and discount it back to present day at an appropriate discount rate that reflects the risk inherent in not only the projections but Schoop as a player. Are you sure that you really know what that 7th year is worth?

All of that being said, we can still send him down later on to gain the extra year of service time, and even if we don't we could still lock him up early if we are that sure about him.

I don't know if Schoop is great, but I do know that if he is the best man for the job, then I want him up in Baltimore to start the season.

I agree with this. As I said before, these things have a way of taking care of themselves. If Schoop doesn't perform well, or is just marginal, there will be opportunities to send him down later. Heck, J.J. Hardy was sent to the minors for a few weeks in August 2009, after having been a major league regular for several seasons and an all-star in 2007, and fell 8 days short of a full year's service time so that his free agency was postponed by a year. We are a contending team now and shouldn't play service time games at the start of the year if it is obvious that Schoop is better than the alternatives. Whether that is obvious or not is open to debate, despite Schoop's strong spring.

[Orioles4Life21]

I think the best option is to begin with Schoop in the lineup and then send him down when Manny is ready.

[Scrat1]

I still just cannot believe how much emphasis people are putting on a 22 year old prospect's spring training numbers. Totally ridiculous.

[Redskins Rick]

I think the best option is to begin with Schoop in the lineup and then send him down when Manny is ready.

Whatever decision Duke and Buck decide to do, it only make part of the OH crew happy.

[Redskins Rick]

I still just cannot believe how much emphasis people are putting on a 22 year old prospect's spring training numbers. Totally ridiculous.

You are right, but in all fairness.

Buck came out and said the other day, the thought going into ST was Schoop needed more time at AAA this year, to make up being injured last year and missing part of the season.

However, he said the job Schoop was doing in ST was making this a difficult decision for them.

[foxfield]

I also think both sides make great points. The easiest way to think about this is the old Turtle vs the Hare analogy. One valuable point that has not been made is that sending Schoop down in no way diminishes the win now mode.

I am absolutely fine if the O's take Schoop on the roster to open the season, for any number of the reasons given here. But if he is in Norfolk, it will not bother me a bit. I personally hope for the former, but understand the strong logic of the later.

[Scrat1]

I also think both sides make great points. The easiest way to think about this is the old Turtle vs the Hare analogy. One valuable point that has not been made is that sending Schoop down in no way diminishes the win now mode.

Some people have been making this point, though. The reality is if Schoop is genuinely a better option over Lombardozzi, which, at this point in time, is far from a given, the difference between the two over a 2-4 week span is likely so negligible that it makes the decision to promote Schoop pointless at best and counter-productive at worst. When you factor in service time, it doesn't make any sense for Schoop to break camp with the team.

[Can_of_corn]

Some people have been making this point, though. The reality is if Schoop is genuinely a better option over Lombardozzi, which, at this point in time, is far from a given, the difference between the two over a 2-4 week span is likely so negligible that it makes the decision to promote Schoop pointless at best and counter-productive at worst. When you factor in service time, it doesn't make any sense for Schoop to break camp with the team.

I still think it serves a purpose as a reward for his hard work this off-season and spring. All the rest of your post, I completely agree with.

[MurphDogg]

Some people have been making this point, though. The reality is if Schoop is genuinely a better option over Lombardozzi, which, at this point in time, is far from a given, the difference between the two over a 2-4 week span is likely so negligible that it makes the decision to promote Schoop pointless at best and counter-productive at worst. When you factor in service time, it doesn't make any sense for Schoop to break camp with the team.

The question is not whether Schoop is a better option than Lombardozzi, it is whether he is a better option than Flaherty. Even if you believe that he is a better option than Lombardozzi, unless you think he is better than Flaherty right now, sending Schoop down after Machado comes back makes the most sense for the team. Even taking money out of the equation, you wouldn't want Schoop sitting on the bench when he could be playing every day at AAA. Now it is possible that Schoop lights the world on fire while Manny is out and Flaherty is terrible, but that is a "risk" the Orioles should take.

[glenn__davis]

I still just cannot believe how much emphasis people are putting on a 22 year old prospect's spring training numbers. Totally ridiculous.

Some people have been making this point, though. The reality is if Schoop is genuinely a better option over Lombardozzi, which, at this point in time, is far from a given, the difference between the two over a 2-4 week span is likely so negligible that it makes the decision to promote Schoop pointless at best and counter-productive at worst. When you factor in service time, it doesn't make any sense for Schoop to break camp with the team.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am putting zero stock into Schoop's spring numbers. I don't pay attention to ST at all.

I don't care how insignificant or how miniscule the numbers may be. In a season where 1 game may make a difference at the end, if Buck thinks Schoop is the better player, then I want Schoop on the team. And there is no way to quantify it. Who knows, maybe Schoop is the better player but someone else would've gotten a big hit where he fails, and he costs us a game. We'd never know.

All I know is I want the absolute best 25-man we have, and if Buck thinks that is Schoop, that's good for me. I'm a big-picture, long-term guy by nature, but I really don't care about Schoop's 2019 season right now.

[scOtt]

I say it's Good and Proper Business no matter who the player is. Prospect or not.