Miguel Cabrera new deal gets him 30m a year

[MrOrange82]

MCab was worth 7.6 fWAR last season. At 6 M for 1 WAR that comes to about 45 M.

Albert Pujols was worth 7.0 fWAR in his age 30 season. How's that deal looking?

[calebelias]

Ehhh, its only $20 and Goldy is easier to root for. Especially when he's on your fantasy roster.

[Aristotelian]

My issue is not only the amount but the timing. He was already under contract through 2015. So they already had him under contract for his prime years at $22 million. Why not be satisfied with that, then let somebody else overpay for a 33 year old DH? I guess they are betting that he will command even more than 8 years/$248 million at that time, but that seems insane.

If he has two more monster years for the Tigers, and the Yankees are willing to go for 8/$260, I would tip my cap to them both and move on.

[brianod]

And I would agree with you. But let's say you have a guy who is going to be worth $40 mm in year 1 and $20 mm in year 10 and will be worth an average of $30 mm/yr over 10 years. I have no problem paying him the 10/$300 mm even if ge'll be overpaid in the final 5 years, so long as he's being underpaid in the first 5. I'd rather do that than pay the guy his full value in the first five years of the deal and then dump him, so long as I think he'll still be a solid contributor in the back part of the deal.

My initial posts in this thread were about the significant value gap between Cabrera and Davis, and I hold to that point. However, as I've looked at this, I do think the extension is going to bite the Tigers very hard in the end. I think the overpayment in the back years will outweigh the excess value in the earlier years, especially when you consider that the Tigers already had Cabrera under contract for the next two years at $22 mm per. We shouldn't look at this as a 10 year, $292 mm deal that begins at age 31, but as an 8 year, $250 mm deal that begins at age 33 and where the Tigers have taken on all the risk that something happens in the next two years that significantly hurts Cabrera's long term value. Their previous extension of Cabrera (8/$152 mm) was genius, but this time they've overpaid significantly.

Good points. I agree.

[Can_of_corn]

Albert Pujols was worth 7.0 fWAR in his age 30 season. How's that deal looking?

Pujols had warning signs that the LAAoA chose to ignore.

[El Gordo]

Albert Pujols was worth 7.0 fWAR in his age 30 season. How's that deal looking?

Ted Williams was worth 190 OPS+ for the first 10 years of his career and declined to 187 OPS+ for the last 10. Not saying Pujols is Williams, but Cabrera is not Pujols either.Just saying what he was worth last season. If Pujols hadn't been bothered by planters' fasciitis he would have done much better. I bet he comes close to that this season now that he is healthy. Which is not to say MCab will be worth the 300 M over the next 10 years. But if he can say healthy he might come close.

[brianod]

Not disagreeing, just taking issue with the point that these guys were playing past their prime. Since all three had career years in their mid to late 30's and the last 4 years of their careers would have been worth 5+ WAR I don't see how you can say that. And they would probably have been well worth a 10/300M, contract by todays standard. How much would you pay a guy who averaged these numbers over his last 10 years:.336, .476, .622, 1.097, 187 OPS+ 37 HR 112 RBI. I 'd say more than you'd pay MCab.

Haha, how can you dispute the point that a 40 year old was playing past his prime? Cherry picking the best year from 35-40 and saying, no, they were still in their prime is, well, silly.

[Aristotelian]

Pujols had warning signs that the LAAoA chose to ignore.

So does Miguel. He was breaking down during the stretch run last year (killed my fantasy team in the process after I traded for him). Also he looks like he is about 280 lbs.

[brianod]

So does Miguel. He was breaking down during the stretch run last year (killed my fantasy team in the process after I traded for him). Also he looks like he is about 280 lbs.

I doubt making 30-40 million a year will improve his workout habits.

[El Gordo]

Haha, how can you dispute the point that a 40 year old was playing past his prime? Cherry picking the best year from 35-40 and saying, no, they were still in their prime is, well, silly.

Ha ha ha, Williams was a 190 OPS + his first 10 years and 187 ops+ is last 10, Boy did he fall off the table. :rolleyestf:

[Can_of_corn]

So does Miguel. He was breaking down during the stretch run last year (killed my fantasy team in the process after I traded for him). Also he looks like he is about 280 lbs.

I don't think playing through an injury is the same as the issues with approach Pujols was having.

[Can_of_corn]

Ha ha ha, Williams was a 190 OPS + his first 10 years and 187 ops+ is last 10, Boy did he fall off the table. :rolleyestf:

War takes a lot out of a man.

[brianod]

Ha ha ha, Williams was a 190 OPS + his first 10 years and 187 ops+ is last 10, Boy did he fall off the table. :rolleyestf:

Williams also didn't have the typical wear and tear on his body because he missed years at a time due to military service. However, I'll grant you this. It is not absolutely impossible that Cabrera is a great player past the age of 35. But, given his physical build, I would not want to take that bet. Bottom line is that Detroit will be hating that deal as he ages imo.

[El Gordo]

Who is in better shape Big Papi or MCab? At age 30 Papi was an 161 OPS+ and last season at age 37 he was 160 OPS +. MCab was 181 OPS + at age 30. Why can't he be worth has much as Ortiz at 37?

[Can_of_corn]

Williams also didn't have the typical wear and tear on his body because he missed years at a time due to military service. However, I'll grant you this. It is not absolutely impossible that Cabrera is a great player past the age of 35. But, given his physical build, I would not want to take that bet. Bottom line is that Detroit will be hating that deal as he ages imo.

Goodness knows if anything is easy on the body it is combat service in the military.