NYT: Orioles May Keep Verlander Waiting

[El Gordo]

I really don't get how people keep referring to our lineup/offense as a powerhouse considering our pretty obvious OBP problems. Context neutral we were fairly average last year with a record amount of homeruns. I do think we have a chance to be better than last year, but there is no great upside on the offense that I see.

If we had nine guys who did nothing but walk we might score more runs but nobody would refer to it as a "powerhouse".

[CA-ORIOLE]

How in the world so??? We had a powerful offense that scored a lot of runs. We had starters who didn't go deep enough (besides Tillman) and a bullpen that let let us down big time. And not just JJ. Hunter regressed vs. lefties, DOD even more so. HOW can you equate last year's offense and defense. That's a ridiculous statement!

Because park factor and context matters. Because even with the raw runs scored and homeruns hit our offense wasn't anywhere near top level. Tampa Bay had a better offense last year and the year before that etc., and I'd almost bet they'll be better this year.

With Nick down now we literally have no one other than Chris Davis who we might be able to count on for an averagish 33% OBP. That's a bit concerning.

Our OPS+ last year was 99. our ERA+ was 100. They were both basically around average (context neutral). We hit very well in the first half and scored more runs than we should have because of a high RISP. The offense scored almost 0.6 runs less in the second half when both the hitting and RISP declined. The pitching in the second half was actually much better by allowing almost half a run less per game. The second half last year was lost on the offense, not the pitching.

[CA-ORIOLE]

If we had nine guys who did nothing but walk we might score more runs but nobody would refer to it as a "powerhouse".

Yeah, that's pretty obviously what I'm getting at.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Good stuff. People are confusing an offense based on power with a powerhouse offense.

Thanks RZ. Don't get me wrong, I'm fairly optimistic about the offense. I think it can (and needs to be better). We have balance throughout the lineup and I do think we have several guys that can improve on last year. I'm really optimistic about Cruz after seeing him in ST. I just don't get this attitude that "we have a great offense and it's all about the pitching". We need improvement in both areas imo.

[El Gordo]

Good stuff. People are confusing an offense based on power with a powerhouse offense.

I don't think so.. The Times article is not targeted for people like CA-ORIOLE but rather the average fan. They would regard the team that hits the most HR as a powerhouse. The Times is not known for it's sophisticated sports reporting.

[Baltoravensrule]

And then there's the flip side, courtesy of ESPN.

Few people polled had the Orioles reaching the playoffs, let alone winning the division. These stories just don't mean very much.

The East is going to be a meat grinder this year. Anything can happen, and nothing's a safe bet.

Not that it matters but I haven't heard of about half of those ESPN people. I don't find any of their predictions odd when isolated but I am very surprised how many of them picked the Nats and the Dodgers.

[scOtt]

Whatever. Opinions vary.

[JayThomas]

There are 2 ways to force a starting pitcher out of the game. One is pitch count, for which OBP is seminal. Clearly the O's are not going to get into the other teams' bullpen early by this method. Fortunately, there is another way. Bludgeon the starting pitcher until the manager simply has to pull him ... early. This I think the O's can and will do this year ... a lot. So while OBP is required for method number 1, and I highly support that as an effective way to wear out a starting pitcher, there is another method; and the 2014 Orioles can and will drive starters out of games by this second method. This lineup is REALLY REALLY long and deep and we are simply going to wear out starting pitchers by bludgeoning them.

[El Gordo]

There are 2 ways to force a starting pitcher out of the game. One is pitch count, for which OBP is seminal. Clearly the O's are not going to get into the other teams' bullpen early by this method. Fortunately, there is another way. Bludgeon the starting pitcher until the manager simply has to pull him ... early. This I think the O's can and will do this year ... a lot. So while OBP is required for method number 1, and I highly support that as an effective way to wear out a starting pitcher, there is another method; and the 2014 Orioles can and will drive starters out of games by this second method. This lineup is REALLY REALLY long and deep and we are simply going to wear out starting pitchers by bludgeoning them.

This isn't true. You could have the first 10 guys hit first pitch singles and you'd have a high OBP and a low pitch count. Or you could have the first 10 guys have 10 pitch K's and the SP would be at 100 P. The key is P/PA. Of course bludgeoning the SP is a good thing too.

[sportsfan8703]

When it comes down to it, doesn't runs=offense?

I wouldn't exactly call them a powerhouse either but literally they have a lot of power, which also stands out the easiest to most people.

Markakis bounce back year and actually having a DH will exceed what we had last year. Hardy is in a contract year too. I see no reason why Davis still wont hit 45-50 HR's. And we already played half a season without Machado's outrageous doubles.

[Flash- bd]

I'm confused; this is genuinely the first of these pre-season prediction articles I've read, but Boston is predicted 4th? They seem to me the obvious favorites to win the division (not saying they will), and as such a null hypothesis of Boston 1st, not 4th, would make more sense to me...What am I missing, here? Is this just a case of massive anti-Boston bias from the NYT?

btw, nice work CA-ORIOLE, bringing the reason. Must spread rep...

[mdbdotcom]

His point is that even with a low pitch count, the pitcher is out of the game because he's been knocked out of the box. If the first 10 guys hit first pitch singles, you have 7 runs on the board with no outs. The pitcher is out of the game, low pitch count or not.

For pitch count, the key is pitches per outs. If the pitcher has thrown 10 pitches and recorded no outs from them, it's as if he started the inning with 10 pitches thrown. At that point, he's already behind the 8-ball and it's unlikely that he will have a low pitch count, for that inning at least.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I find it amusing that the normal thing to do is to get to the bullpen. In most cases this is true, but if I was playing the 2012 O's, the bullpen was the last thing I would want to face. I would be begging Buck to keep his starters in for one more inning.

[Outlander]

I have a question about analyzing the offense. I understand factoring in the park, etc, our ops + was a modest 99. But when people questioned why run differential was important to judging offense, ca oriole just went into more detail about factoring In park. So my question is still this. Why is run differential that important with judging an offense. If we score 800 runs but give up 800, our run differential is not good. But maybe the offense is. Isn't ops+ , which factors in park, and run scoring environments, all you really need? Is there any reason to look at run diff? Not attacking anyone, just generally curious and trying to learn things.

[TonySoprano]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/sports/baseball/orioles-may-keep-verlander-waiting.html?_r=0

Gotta spread the rep, weams. The Yanks hometown paper doesn't pick them.