NYT: Orioles May Keep Verlander Waiting

[TheBee]

Weams posted a thread from out of town that said some positive things about the Orioles. It is nice to hear - end of story. Jeez, wouldn't you rather hear you look nice rather than you look like s...? If someone called you "handsome" would you ask them for an in depth analysis of their definition of the term or just feel nice and move on with life? Overthinking and overreacting to this in any way means it is time for games to start.

[weams]

Weams posted a thread from out of town that said some positive things about the Orioles. It is nice to hear - end of story. Jeez, wouldn't you rather hear you look nice rather than you look like s...? If someone called you "handsome" would you ask them for an in depth analysis of their definition of the term or just feel nice and move on with life? Overthinking and overreacting to this in any way means it is time for games to start.

It is time for games to count. Go Os.

[TheBee]

It is time for games to count. Go Os.

True...can't wait to actually SEE them, too. Go Os!

[CA-ORIOLE]

And what was their run differential when they made thw playoffs in 2012? Theres more to baseball than pure math. And what else do you call an offense that is top 5 in runs, if not powerhouse???

Yeah, counting on repeating a record high leverage performance probably isn't the greatest strategy going forward.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, counting on repeating a record high leverage performance probably isn't the greatest strategy going forward.

Average high leverage performance would have put this mediocre offensive team in the playoffs last season.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Average high leverage performance would have put this mediocre offensive team in the playoffs last season.

I'd say our "high powered" offense was about equally helped by our "horrid" pitching staff last year. They were fairly similar in value/contribution.

Our RISP and high leverage pitching stats were actually above our normal levels last year. Save rate about average. Our BP was fairly good, not great. Our Pythageron was spot on. We were below average on one run games. Nothing unusual in 2013 like there was in 2012.

[gpolee]

Because park factor and context matters. Because even with the raw runs scored and homeruns hit our offense wasn't anywhere near top level. Tampa Bay had a better offense last year and the year before that etc., and I'd almost bet they'll be better this year.

With Nick down now we literally have no one other than Chris Davis who we might be able to count on for an averagish 33% OBP. That's a bit concerning.

Our OPS+ last year was 99. our ERA+ was 100. They were both basically around average (context neutral). We hit very well in the first half and scored more runs than we should have because of a high RISP. The offense scored almost 0.6 runs less in the second half when both the hitting and RISP declined. The pitching in the second half was actually much better by allowing almost half a run less per game. The second half last year was lost on the offense, not the pitching.

This kind of BS can only come from math-heads who get trapped in the maze of stats, confused by skewed formulas that distort real performance. In real life, Tampa's 2012 and 2013 offenses were a tier or two below Baltimore's.

[CA-ORIOLE]

This kind of BS can only come from math-heads who get trapped in the maze of stats, confused by skewed formulas that distort real performance. In real life, Tampa's 2012 and 2013 offenses were a tier or two below Baltimore's.

Yeah, and I laugh every time I here somebody refer to our offense as a powerhouse as compared to Tampa's. Thinking isn't for everybody.

[Frobby]

I'd say our "high powered" offense was about equally helped by our "horrid" pitching staff last year. They were fairly similar in value/contribution.

Our RISP and high leverage pitching stats were actually well above our normal levels last year. Save rate about average. Our BP was fairly good, not great. Our Pythageron was spot on. We were below average on one run games. Nothing unusual in 2013 like there was in 2012.

Our offense may be overrated, but the pitching was helped substantially by the defense. The offense/defense package of our lineup was far above average. The pitching was below average if you put it in a defense-neutral context. I'm hoping both the offense and pitching step it up a notch this year. I have the O's projected at .756 OPS this year, compared to .744 last year.

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, and I laugh every time I here somebody refer to our offense as a powerhouse as compared to Tampa's. Thinking isn't for everybody.

Ok, smart guy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Our offense may be overrated, but the pitching was helped substantially by the defense. The offense/defense package of our lineup was far above average. The pitching was below average if you put it in a defense-neutral context.

I don't disagree with this. Pitching and defense are obviously integrated. I think a lot of our defesnive success is team driven with the infield shifts though.

I'm hoping both the offense and pitching step it up a notch this year. .

I agree with this and could see it happening. I hope to see improvement in all areas, maybe a decline in defense if you want to separate that. We are a somewhat balanced team and i actually don't see a real power house team in the division. I do expect some decline from BOS. I think Tampa (on paper) is heads and shoulders above everyone else in the division though.

[El Gordo]

I'd say our "high powered" offense was about equally helped by our "horrid" pitching staff last year. They were fairly similar in value/contribution.

Our RISP and high leverage pitching stats were actually above our normal levels last year. Save rate about average. Our BP was fairly good, not great. Our Pythageron was spot on. We were below average on one run games. Nothing unusual in 2013 like there was in 2012.

Below average is unusual to me we should have been about average. We were 4th in runs scored. If we had been 9th in ER instead of 10th, our R/D would have been 70.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Ok, smart guy.

Hey, I don't want to cause somebody to have an aneurism.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Below average is unusual to me we should have been about average. We were 4th in runs scored. If we had been 9th in ER instead of 10th, our R/D would have been 70.

You have developed a strategy to perform above average in one run games every year that you'd like to share?

[weams]

Hey, I don't want to cause somebody to have an aneurism.

Me? Aneurism?