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Nelson Cruz almost earned half his paycheck in the first game.


Ommaculate

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Not that this is a really good way to assign credit, but Cruz's home run gave us an extra 20% chance to win by WPA (win probability added.) The baseline is 50%. A hypothetical replacement team would have a 28% chance of winning. That means that the average player on a replacement level team would be roughly -2.5%. So strictly by translating WPA to wins over replacement, Cruz gave us about .225 WAR.

Fangraphs roughly agrees with this, since they assigned him 0.2 WAR.

Don't rain on the parade with logic here. We're busy praising Cruz for making a pretty routine catch look hard and Delmon Young for grounding into a double play. Clutch!

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Tillman is technically 1 WAR now as well. Not many starters could have done that.

Davis and Jones need to be +1 tonight. They haven't even started raking yet, it was the supporting cast who did it that is exactly what the team needed.

Mr. Kramer, I took a look at your work and I don't even know what this is supposed to be. It's almost like you have no training in business at all.

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Tillman is technically 1 WAR now as well. Not many starters could have done that.

Davis and Jones need to be +1 tonight. They haven't even started raking yet, it was the supporting cast who did it that is exactly what the team needed.

How is he "technically" 1 WAR if you already gave out the full win to Cruz?

I'm not sure if you're serious with your personal logic of WAR here but this isn't how it works.

In an earlier post Hallas gave a more accurate description:

Not that this is a really good way to assign credit, but Cruz's home run gave us an extra 20% chance to win by WPA (win probability added.) The baseline is 50%. A hypothetical replacement team would have a 28% chance of winning. That means that the average player on a replacement level team would be roughly -2.5%. So strictly by translating WPA to wins over replacement, Cruz gave us about .225 WAR.

Fangraphs roughly agrees with this, since they assigned him 0.2 WAR.

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Tillman is technically 1 WAR now as well. Not many starters could have done that.

Davis and Jones need to be +1 tonight. They haven't even started raking yet, it was the supporting cast who did it that is exactly what the team needed.

Y'know, there are people out there with shreds of know-how who've actually spent some time figuring this WAR thing out, you might want to just stick with their work instead of continuing to type things.

Actually nevermind, this is fun. Are Markakis, Young and Davis each -1 WAR for going 0-10 with 4 Ks?

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Don't rain on the parade with logic here. We're busy praising Cruz for making a pretty routine catch look hard and Delmon Young for grounding into a double play. Clutch!

My rain isn't really that logical, because I don't actually agree with that method of using WPA to decide value. So I'm raining on the parade with illogical logic? I guess...

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My rain isn't really that logical, because I don't actually agree with that method of using WPA to decide value. So I'm raining on the parade with illogical logic? I guess...

I understand, it's certainly closer to logical than passing out wins like Oprah giving away cars.

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My rain isn't really that logical, because I don't actually agree with that method of using WPA to decide value. So I'm raining on the parade with illogical logic? I guess...

I understand, it's certainly closer to logical than passing out wins like Oprah giving away cars.

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I think the idea is that $3 million (or whatever it is) would be the going rate for a 1 WAR player on the open market.

Makes more sense. But he hardly picked up 1 WAR in one good game. (Or .6 WAR. I think it's about 5 mill per 1 WAR.)

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The whole thing with players being worth a certain amount of wins is kinda silly anyway. I'm cool with trying to look at a players value, but what matters most is on the field and Cruz won the game for us, even if his actual WAR for the game might be like 0.05 or something.

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The whole thing with players being worth a certain amount of wins is kinda silly anyway. I'm cool with trying to look at a players value, but what matters most is on the field and Cruz won the game for us, even if his actual WAR for the game might be like 0.05 or something.

I think pitching won the game for the O's.

1 ER over 9 will generally get it done.

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