Does this make sense based on what you've seen this year?

[Frobby]

Nick Markakis has a -8.9 UZR/150 through 12 games. Thinking back on the season so far, I can only think of one ball he could have caught, but didn't -- a diving play where he gloved it but the ball escaped his mitt when he hit the ground. Other than that, he's looked great playing the RF wall, has thrown out a runner at 2B, and made one really nice diving play (the game before the one he missed). It's things like this that make me wonder how these stats are designed. That said, I haven't watched every minute of every game, so if there are other plays Nick could have made but didn't, I'd like to hear it.

[mark_beckens]

Nick Markakis has a -8.9 UZR/150 through 12 games. Thinking back on the season so far, I can only think of one ball he could have caught, but didn't -- a diving play where he gloved it but the ball escaped his mitt when he hit the ground. Other than that, he's looked great playing the RF wall, has thrown out a runner at 2B, and made one really nice diving play (the game before the one he missed). It's things like this that make me wonder how these stats are designed. That said, I haven't watched every minute of every game, so if there are other plays Nick could have made but didn't, I'd like to hear it.

Makes perfect sense. Defense metrics are BS!

[Number5]

Nick Markakis has a -8.9 UZR/150 through 12 games. Thinking back on the season so far, I can only think of one ball he could have caught, but didn't -- a diving play where he gloved it but the ball escaped his mitt when he hit the ground. Other than that, he's looked great playing the RF wall, has thrown out a runner at 2B, and made one really nice diving play (the game before the one he missed). It's things like this that make me wonder how these stats are designed. That said, I haven't watched every minute of every game, so if there are other plays Nick could have made but didn't, I'd like to hear it.

And that play he missed was certainly not an easy play. It was a play that Nick usually makes, but it was not easy.

[terps19]

Its a conspiracy. Os are paying the metics bean counters to drive down his value in hopes PA can sign Nicky on the cheap again.

[terps19]

And that play he missed was certainly not an easy play. It was a play that Nick usually makes, but it was not easy.

Its a play that ended up being HUGE in that game. Some bad luck that was magnified by the loss.

[Can_of_corn]

Twelve game sample size is meaningless.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Here's a question. Does talking about 12 games of defensive metrics even worth discussing?

[weams]

Here's a question. Does talking about 12 games of defensive metrics even worth discussing?

Let's See. Defensive Metrics. SSS. Overreaction.

We absolutely agree.

[Can_of_corn]

Here's a question. Does talking about 12 games of defensive metrics even worth discussing?

Unless I am pushing an agenda (Roberts in 2012) I don't even start to look at defensive metrics with less then two months data.

[Frobby]

Here's a question. Does talking about 12 games of defensive metrics even worth discussing?

Yes, it IS worth discussing, if what you are discussing is what the metric is measuring. Let me explain.

If Chris Davis has hit one home run in the first 12 games, that's a verifiable fact. It may not be indicative of how many home runs he will hit in 162 games, but it is 100% indicative of what he has done so far.

Nick's negative UZR says that he has been below average in RF so far this year. It may not be indicative of what he will do for 162 games, but it should measure how he has played to date. And, in this manageable sample of games, I do not feel that is what I have seen.

[AdamK]

LOL at the SSS! mob.

Yes it makes perfect sense to discuss. Good question.

Re-read Frobby's OP and the question he is raising is well timed since this particular SSS is one that most of us have the capacity to remember Nick's actual defensive play. Unlike some of the other threads that are jumping to conclusion about a player's fate, this one is calling in to question the nebulous way in which we measure a player's worth.

From what I have seen, it has appeared that some balls are landing in shallow right or near the line in fair territory that I would have assumed our RF could catch *if we were not playing some kind of shift*. But its not always clear to me where the OF is playing when the broadcast follows the ball into the right field area. Hard to say, IMO, but his -8.9 UZR/150 seems a bit surprising.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yes, it IS worth discussing, if what you are discussing is what the metric is measuring. Let me explain.

If Chris Davis has hit one home run in the first 12 games, that's a verifiable fact. It may not be indicative of how many home runs he will hit in 162 games, but it is 100% indicative of what he has done so far.

Nick's negative UZR says that he has been below average in RF so far this year. It may not be indicative of what he will do for 162 games, but it should measure how he has played to date. And, in this manageable sample of games, I do not feel that is what I have seen.

Not imo. You'd have to be discussing Davis's performance in about 3-4 games to be analagous to 12 games of defense and that would be incredibly dumb. Worrying about Davis's HR totals now is just relatively dumb unless there's some blatant like and injury concern. Not only that, a -8.9 is close to Nicks's 3 year trend so it's not even that we have some extraordinarily abnormal number here.

...but it should measure how he has played to date. And, in this manageable sample of games, I do not feel that is what I have seen

Then you simply don't understand or want to understand the metric. Not like this hasn't been discussed a million times already. Have fun though.

[wildcard]

UZR is not to be trusted. And its a part of WAR which is not to be trusted either.

Garbage in, garbage out.

[CA-ORIOLE]

LOL at the SSS! mob.

Yes it makes perfect sense to discuss. Good question.

Re-read Frobby's OP and the question he is raising is well timed since this particular SSS is one that most of us have the capacity to remember Nick's actual defensive play. Unlike some of the other threads that are jumping to conclusion about a player's fate, this one is calling in to question the nebulous way in which we measure a player's worth.

From what I have seen, it has appeared that some balls are landing in shallow right or near the line in fair territory that I would have assumed our RF could catch *if we were not playing some kind of shift*. But its not always clear to me where the OF is playing when the broadcast follows the ball into the right field area. Hard to say, IMO, but his -8.9 UZR/150 seems a bit surprising.

It's idiotic. He has 11 games in RF and 10 starts. He has 24 total chances. These stats need 3-4 years to approximate the stability of one years worth of offensive stats. He has less that 1/2 of 1% of that sample. DRS says he is 1 play below average on 24 chances which gives him a rate of minus 13 runs below average. The rate stat is useless at this point.

[mark_beckens]

Yes, it IS worth discussing, if what you are discussing is what the metric is measuring. Let me explain.

If Chris Davis has hit one home run in the first 12 games, that's a verifiable fact. It may not be indicative of how many home runs he will hit in 162 games, but it is 100% indicative of what he has done so far.

Nick's negative UZR says that he has been below average in RF so far this year. It may not be indicative of what he will do for 162 games, but it should measure how he has played to date. And, in this manageable sample of games, I do not feel that is what I have seen.

They don't feel it's worth discussing because it calls into question the whole sabermetrics calculations. They can't quantify how Nick could have a -8.9 after only 12 games in which he has actually played well defensively. So saying it's a SSS and not worth discussing pushes off the discussion until the number of games and the plays in those games is too numerous to remember them all. So it's easier to verify he's played poorly and deserves his ranking.