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Does this make sense based on what you've seen this year?


Frobby

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That's a great point. Although I think Cal would have scored very well on accuracy of first step and shortest path to ball. Less so on total range (max ground covered) and speed.

Considering all the overshifts that are in place these days, i think you almost have to move in this direction to some extent. It'll be interesting to see how the current systems adapt, what new ones may develop, and how the systems and data compare.

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At least regarding last season, there is a bit of evidence in the new Inside Edge fielding report that either UZR is really skewed in the way it is counting Nick's missed plays, or there is something missing in Inside Edge that I am not getting.

Nick:

1-10% 0.0% (5)

11-40% 40.0% (5)

41-60% 100.0% (6)

61-80% 83.3% (18)

81-100% 99.7% (289)

League average:

1-10% 7.8 %

11-40% 31.9 %

41-60% 59.4 %

61-80% 83.4 %

81-100% 99.1 %

The league average numbers suggest that the scouts' evaluations of the difficulty of the plays is somewhat skewed. If a play is rated by scouts that it is made 60-80% of the time, but the league in fact makes that play 83.4% of the time, then something is a little off.

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Sorry if this has been mentioned, but it's possibly important to remember that UZR is park-adjusted. OPACY has a small outfield, Nick has less area to patrol, and UZR will put more pressure on him to make plays that might look less impressive in other outfields. It also means he has less chances on balls that Jones can get to instead, but UZR doesn't penalize anyone for balls caught by other fielders.

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Sorry if this has been mentioned, but it's possibly important to remember that UZR is park-adjusted. OPACY has a small outfield, Nick has less area to patrol, and UZR will put more pressure on him to make plays that might look less impressive in other outfields. It also means he has less chances on balls that Jones can get to instead, but UZR doesn't penalize anyone for balls caught by other fielders.

Yep. I did already make that point and I agree with you that it could be a very important factor. Not to mention the play/location values varying.

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The big problem I have with the advanced defensive metrics is that you can't access the information that generates the data. It's nobody's fault, I guess, because the data is generated at a cost and the owners are entitled to keep their stuff proprietary. But I would love to be able to see the plays that UZR says Nick (or any other player) could or should have made, and get a sense of whether I agree with those judgments. When the official scorer rules a play a hit or an error, we all have the opportunity to judge whether the scorer was right or wrong, and I wish we could do the same with the judgments/evaluations that underlie the advanced metrics. I probably would be more comfortable with them if I could.

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I've watched almost every game and Nick looks slow to me. The ball that got over his head last night against the Rays, looked catchable but it was a tough play. It's just that he looks like he's laboring when he runs after fly balls.

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