Zach Britton is Too Filthy for the Pen

[LAOSfan]

You want to trade a lockdown reliever who can pitch in close games thrown by multiple starters for a fifth starter who throws once a week or less? As others have pointed out, Britton throws a lot of pitches, and he's probably not someone who's going to give you 7-8 great innings as a starter, so you're talking about taking him out of a key bullpen role for the sake of getting 5-6 innings from him in a starter's position, at best, once every five days (and that's if he replaces Chen or Gonzo).

Not even close to a good idea, IMO.

While I'm not necessarily in the crowd that thinks Britton should be moved to the rotation now, I don't understand this logic. Yes, I want my best pitchers, who are able to pitch more than 2 innings at a time, in the rotation. Whether they are deemed the first or fifth starter, it doesn't matter to me. At the end of the year, that fifth starter will have many more innings pitched than the reliever. Heck, Feldman was with us half the year last year and threw more innings than anyone else in the pen.

[scOtt]

Sooner or later we will need a spot start. I think they would like Zach to be ready.

Nah. Steve Johnson or McFarland would get any spot start.

[WV O's]

Tillman didn't reinvent himself almost purely with one-pitch like Zach. Zach right now is dominating with a filthy 92-95 MPH sinking fastball. He's also admitted that going purely from the stretch has simplified his mechanics a bit and helped him throw more strikes. If he was throwing three different pitches and commanding them all I'd be more apt to think about it, but what I think the Orioles found was a guy who's best role is in the bullpen.

Tony, why can't Zach get away with only throwing the sinker? No one squares it up.

[MrOrange82]

While I'm not necessarily in the crowd that thinks Britton should be moved to the rotation now, I don't understand this logic. Yes, I want my best pitchers, who are able to pitch more than 2 innings at a time, in the rotation. Whether they are deemed the first or fifth starter, it doesn't matter to me. At the end of the year, that fifth starter will have many more innings pitched than the reliever. Heck, Feldman was with us half the year last year and threw more innings than anyone else in the pen.

The math is much more complicated than that. Right now, Britton has the ability to use max or near-max effort to affect the outcomes of multiple games a week. Stretching him out to be a starter would likely overexpose the pitch that's (primarily responsible for) making him successful out of pen right now, and force him to change his pacing to last longer in games. On top of that, you have to consider who takes his role in the bullpen. Could one other person even manage it? Would you actually need to bounce between multiple relievers to do the job Britton's doing by himself? And just saying "oh, put the starter Britton's replacing in the pen" doesn't mean that that guy is capable of holding down the role. You've got to consider the potential hit to bullpen performance and weigh that against any benefits you perceive in moving Britton to the rotation.

[Morgan423]

You want to trade a lockdown reliever who can pitch in close games thrown by multiple starters for a fifth starter who throws once a week or less? As others have pointed out, Britton throws a lot of pitches, and he's probably not someone who's going to give you 7-8 great innings as a starter, so you're talking about taking him out of a key bullpen role for the sake of getting 5-6 innings from him in a starter's position, at best, once every five days (and that's if he replaces Chen or Gonzo).

Not even close to a good idea, IMO.

Exactly. He's got way more value in his current role of he's keeps performing at this level.

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[Frobby]

I think a better question would be why isn't he the closer? Or for that matter:

Britton>Meek>Hunter

Hunter's ability, i.e. Rasmus, to serve up a dinger via straight fastball worries me.

My feeling is, Britton is more valuable to us in his current role, in which he will likely throw 100+ innings in meaningful situations, than he woulf be pitching in one-inning stints in the 9th for a total of about 70 innings.

[LAOSfan]

The math is much more complicated than that. Right now, Britton has the ability to use max or near-max effort to affect the outcomes of multiple games a week. Stretching him out to be a starter would likely overexpose the pitch that's (primarily responsible for) making him successful out of pen right now, and force him to change his pacing to last longer in games. On top of that, you have to consider who takes his role in the bullpen. Could one other person even manage it? Would you actually need to bounce between multiple relievers to do the job Britton's doing by himself? And just saying "oh, put the starter Britton's replacing in the pen" doesn't mean that that guy is capable of holding down the role. You've got to consider the potential hit to bullpen performance and weigh that against any benefits you perceive in moving Britton to the rotation.

I see your point but the bottom line to me is that I want my best pitchers throwing the most innings, assuming they are capable of doing so. I think Britton is capable of doing so and eventually, if he keeps it up, would have to consider putting him in the rotation (assuming a starter is struggling), where he would pitch more innings than he will in his current role.

[oriole]

You want to trade a lockdown reliever who can pitch in close games thrown by multiple starters for a fifth starter who throws once a week or less? As others have pointed out, Britton throws a lot of pitches, and he's probably not someone who's going to give you 7-8 great innings as a starter, so you're talking about taking him out of a key bullpen role for the sake of getting 5-6 innings from him in a starter's position, at best, once every five days (and that's if he replaces Chen or Gonzo).

Not even close to a good idea, IMO.

In a nutshell, yes.

Considering it looks as if Britton has turned a corner, I can't see his past years projecting the type of pitcher he can be if given a chance to start. I'm not claiming to be sure that Britton can be a productive starter but judging on how he's looked so far this year I think he could be more productive than most of our current rotation.

If we had a decent rotation I may singing a different tune but Jimenez, Chen, Norris, and Gonzalez have all looked pretty iffy overall so far.

[scOtt]

Tony' date=' why can't Zach get away with only throwing the sinker? No one squares it up.[/quote']

Because that one pitch won't stay this perfect.

[Flash- bd]

I figure it makes sense to post what I did at the end of the game-thread here:

Yeah, I mean I fully acknowledge that my desire to see him back in the rotation is based on a good deal of hope/baseless optimism and perhaps a small bit of reason.

On the other hand, his control wasn't a big problem in the minors, his BB/9 was usually average to slightly above average. It wasn't terrible in his rookie year either. I feel like with the confidence that his stuff is back--as it is--and that he can challenge hitters, + not having as fine a margin of error as you do when you're a reliever, that he could show good enough control to be successful. I just feel like he's got a lot of Tilly in him re: attitude/demeanor ("want-to" ) and that like with Tilly, his stuff is back to where it was when we got excited with him in the first place.

I dunno, I've always been a Zach believer. He convinced me in his (admittedly uneven) rookie season, and I think injuries derailed him from there. He's clearly healthy now, so I'd be disappointed not to see him get another shot; I think he's still got all the upside of that guy we had such high hopes for in his debut season.

But clearly there's little to be done now. You don't take Norris, Gonzalez, or Chen out of the rotation unless they really become seriously ineffective, and I don't see that happening. But injuries always can and will happen. If not, as I've said, I would like us to sell high one of those aforementioned three at the deadline (but when has this team ever sold high? HELLO, Jim Johnson!), not just for the sake of Britton but also for Gausman and Bundy.

Ugh, all that money on Jimenez looks worse every day...

[blid]

He probably will be called on before Gausman but why do we always have to mess a good thing up? He is doing great and helping the team...

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He's been a starting pitcher his whole career, and when he's been healthy with his sinker working, he's always shown hints of front-half-of-the-rotation level success. Even now he's pitching multiple innings each appearance. This isn't like talking about converting JJ back to a starter, or anything like that.

I totally recognize the value he's been giving us in his current role. We could have lost this game without him bridging those middle-late innings from Gonzalez up to Hunter. But I don't think he needs to be pigeon-holed into a relief only role just because he's been good at relief this season. I leave him where he is, but if we need a spot starter or a replacement pitcher, I give him first chance ahead of Gausman right now.

[DrungoHazewood]

I hope they aren't. Just because someone pitches well out of the pen does not mean they should be re-turned into a starter. After years of struggle, Britton seems to have found a role in which he excels. Absolutely no reason to considering moving, IMO. And I'll continue to say that even if his ERA holds at 0.00 for the foreseeable future.

I'm a big advocate of not Peter Principle'ing pitchers. If they find their niche after years of inconsistent results it's probably because they are well suited for said niche. Not because they suddenly learned how to pitch.

Let's say Britton is a 3.25 ERA reliever. That means he's probably a 4.25 starter, and the O's already have more than five 4.25 ERA starters. Everyone is better in relief, in short stints, going through the lineup once or less.

[DrungoHazewood]

Even now he's pitching multiple innings each appearance. This isn't like talking about converting JJ back to a starter, or anything like that.

There's a huge difference between pitching 2 or 2+ innings and seeing the lineup once, and pacing yourself to go 5, 6, 7 innings and seeing batters three times. Pitching two innings is a lot more like one than it is six.

[mdbdotcom]

Brian Anderson on the Rays' telecast took notice of Britton today. He sounded a bit like Palmer, talking about how difficult it is to throw a ball that hard with that much sink.

[AdamK]

I'm a big advocate of not Peter Principle'ing pitchers. If they find their niche after years of inconsistent results it's probably because they are well suited for said niche. Not because they suddenly learned how to pitch.

Let's say Britton is a 3.25 ERA reliever. That means he's probably a 4.25 starter, and the O's already have more than five 4.25 ERA starters. Everyone is better in relief, in short stints, going through the lineup once or less.

Good point. I tend to agree with this.