Is It Too Early to Start Talking About Nick Markakis?

[Aristotelian]

Inspired by the Wieters thread... Nick is hitting to all fields, drawing walks. His bat just looks much quicker than last year. He struggled a bit to start the season but is now up to .305/.366/.406. Since April 15, he is hitting .352/.446/.493 (that OBP is astounding even for a relatively small sample!). I don't want to focus too much on the hit streak for fear of jinxing it, but what I really like about this year so far even more is that he does not have back to back 0-for games. The OBP is just what we need for our leadoff guy.

Obviously the SLG number leaves something to be desired, but whenever he comes up in a big situation I just feel a base hit coming when last year I would have expected a groundout, and he did hit a couple of HR in the Pittsburgh series. Defense is still solid but not spectacular.

Overall his numbers look very similar to his 2010-2011 years, with less power than his peak years but plus average and OBP. Baseball Reference has him at 0.3 WAR over the first 1/4 season vs -0.3 for all of last year. On this board we were hoping going into the season that some bounce-back from Nick and Wieters would offset regression by Chris Davis. This appears to have happened at least partially (depending on what CD does when he comes back).

With Urrutia struggling in the minors, is it crazy to think that we might actually pick up Nick's $17 million option next year? Going into the season I was hoping for a decent bounce-back year and then let him walk, but now it doesn't seem so crazy.

[mdbdotcom]

Nick had a great May last year. I love it when he's hitting. Let's see if he sustains it.

[PA724_Oriole]

They are not picking up that option. If he is a O next season it will be under a new contract.

[25 Nuggets]

Overall his numbers look very similar to his 2010-2011 years, with less power than his peak years but plus average and OBP. Baseball Reference has him at 0.3 WAR over the first 1/4 season vs -0.3 for all of last year.

It's actually closer to 1/5 of the season, meaning he's on pace for a 1.5 WAR season, and if we're going strictly off that I don't think it's worth 17 million. But it doesn't/shouldn't go strictly off WAR.

[Can_of_corn]

No team in baseball would pay Nick Markakis 17 million next year. The Orioles won't either. He's hitting like he did when he went to the leadoff spot in 2012. Let's see him do it for a full season. If he does, the O's will probably offer him a 5/50 type of deal. If he wants to be a career Oriole, he'll take it. First, he has to earn it.

The O's could come close if they buy him out, give him a QO and have him accept it.

That is the only way I can see it happening.

His glove doesn't play well in the OF anymore and his bat doesn't play at first or DH.

[jtschrei]

Funny how players turn it on in a contract year, no?

He's not getting 17 million next year. No way, no how.

I'm a fan and I'm glad that he's having a good year so far. The lead-off spot does seem to suit him. He's a solid player and a good teammate. Go Nick!

[Frobby]

It's too early to worry about it. I'm relatively sure the O's won't pick up the option, but they might offer him a multi-year deal at a significantly lower salary than he is making now. My guess is they will review the situation at the all-star break, by which time Nick's OPS could be .840, .700, or somewhere in between like it is right now.

[Phantom]

A deep dive on Nicky's stats doesn't help much in the fluke/breakout debate. His BABIP is up a bit, but not an absurd amount of his career average. He has improved his plate discipline a bit so far this season. Specifically, his Z-contact% is at a career best 96.7%. Here's hoping he keeps putting the good ones in play!

[Can_of_corn]

I think he's average at best in RF and I know the stats hate him. However, I still don't feel is a liability out there. He catches everything he gets too and makes some nice catches going back to the wall.

If he is average at best now then how is he going to look from 2015-2019?

[CA-ORIOLE]

On the interview the other day on MLBN. Duquette pretty much poo pooed any possible extensions with Hardy/Wieters/Davis but did hint at QO'ing Cruz as a de-facto extension. No mention if Nick though. If Nick ends up healthy and having a good year I might not mind the 1 year option and/or QO as much as some others.

[El Gordo]

I would think they will decline his option and try to negotiate a team friendly extension. My guess is Nick would be more interested in years than AAV. If that fails then I think they will make the QO. Why not? They get Nick for one more year or they get a pick.

[Creamsicle]

I would say no, not too early.

Too early would have been 2002, before we drafted him.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I would think they will decline his option and try to negotiate a team friendly extension. My guess is Nick would be more interested in years than AAV. If that fails then I think they will make the QO. Why not? They get Nick for one more year or they get a pick.

This is what I'm thinking. Plus we'd have more leverage on an extension with the QO hanging on him. Not that I'd necessarily want to extend him.

[Can_of_corn]

Average at best.

You think a realistic forecast is no decline over his age 31-35 seasons?

[El Gordo]

To bad UZR stopped posting splits. I can't imagine anyone playing the strange RF at OPACY any better than Nick. Who ever replaces him may well play a lot better on the road, but OPACY is tricky and made for Nick's skills.