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Is It Too Early to Start Talking About Nick Markakis?


Aristotelian

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William Robert Allison, yes. Played for the Senators in the 50's and the Twins in the 60's.

IIRC, it was a Bobby Allison home run that sealed the end of Dave McNally's streak of 17 consecutive wins without a loss (as opposed to 17 games in a row).

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Go to your nearest batting cage, choke up on the bat, set the dial for 90 mph and see how long it takes you to spoil those pitches. Even Ichiro is swinging, trying to put the ball in play. When you are not trying to do that but merely catching the ball on the bat, you might be surprised how easy it is. Even if you struck out it would probably take 10 or more pitches to do so. In other a more productive AB than almost all of Lough's AB so far.

You are right about Lough's ABs, probably. But it's so much easier hitting from a pitching machine that is only throwing fastballs than it is to foul off fastballs, changes, curves, sliders, etc. Hell, if they replaced pitchers with pitching machines, somebody would have a .500 batting average.

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Go to your nearest batting cage, choke up on the bat, set the dial for 90 mph and see how long it takes you to spoil those pitches. Even Ichiro is swinging, trying to put the ball in play. When you are not trying to do that but merely catching the ball on the bat, you might be surprised how easy it is. Even if you struck out it would probably take 10 or more pitches to do so. In other a more productive AB than almost all of Lough's AB so far.

But I do like the mindset of preparing ones' self to spoil pitches.

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Go to your nearest batting cage, choke up on the bat, set the dial for 90 mph and see how long it takes you to spoil those pitches. Even Ichiro is swinging, trying to put the ball in play. When you are not trying to do that but merely catching the ball on the bat, you might be surprised how easy it is. Even if you struck out it would probably take 10 or more pitches to do so. In other a more productive AB than almost all of Lough's AB so far.

Of course the flaw is that even if I could spoil a high % of 90 mph fastballs knowing they were coming as 90 mph fastballs, it gets exponentially harder when the pitcher can both locate those pitches well and throw an assortment of secondary pitches. And most MLB pitchers can throw faster than 90 mph.

Also, remember that your goal is to have the batter constantly walk. Which means he has to take at least four pitches per at bat. Which means he has to be really darned good at differentiating balls from strikes (and the ump does, too). There aren't going to be many plate appearances where your Boy Who Batted 1.000 gets four obvious balls. And if the pitch isn't obviously a ball he has to try to foul it off.

This is an interesting thought experiment, but it certainly strains believability. Even in the deadball era when most everyone swung a big bat slowly and desperately tried to never strike out nothing like this remotely ever happened. Roy Thomas is probably closest, and he got a ton of hits.

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But I do like the mindset of preparing ones' self to spoil pitches.

So you may or may not know that the foul-bunt rule was instituted in the 1890s to keep batters from endlessly fouling off pitches until they got a good one to hit. Prior to 1903-04ish foul balls weren't strikes, except foul bunts which were made strikes about 10 years prior. There were some batters who'd literally foul bunt scores of pitches every at bat until they got one to their liking they could hit (or, presumably, walk). It got annoying, so they changed the rules.

But again, the main purpose wasn't to walk, but to hit (or bunt) fouls until they got a pitch to hit. There's never really been anyone who succeeded in just walking, not even when you could foul bunt 18 pitches and still have no strikes.

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Of course the flaw is that even if I could spoil a high % of 90 mph fastballs knowing they were coming as 90 mph fastballs, it gets exponentially harder when the pitcher can both locate those pitches well and throw an assortment of secondary pitches. And most MLB pitchers can throw faster than 90 mph.

Also, remember that your goal is to have the batter constantly walk. Which means he has to take at least four pitches per at bat. Which means he has to be really darned good at differentiating balls from strikes (and the ump does, too). There aren't going to be many plate appearances where your Boy Who Batted 1.000 gets four obvious balls. And if the pitch isn't obviously a ball he has to try to foul it off.

This is an interesting thought experiment, but it certainly strains believability. Even in the deadball era when most everyone swung a big bat slowly and desperately tried to never strike out nothing like this remotely ever happened. Roy Thomas is probably closest, and he got a ton of hits.

Rather than make it a thought experiment try it and see. Even in the dead ball era they were trying to hit. When have they ever tried not to hit? No one has ever thought out of that box.
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  • 4 weeks later...
Nick has not hit lefties well so far this year. And he didn't hit them last year. I think the O's have to determine what kind of a player he is now and might be in the future. Is he headed toward being a platoon player? They don't get paid what full time players do.

Its a little early. I agree that looking at it during All-Star break sounds about right. Right now he is not worth a QO of 14-15M. He is still someone the O's might want to sign at the right price though.

I am not very worried about Nick's splits vs. LHP. He's only had 32 at bats against them, that's too small a sample to be concerned with. Last year was a poor one for Nick all around, but his OPS vs. LHP was only about 50 points lower than for RHP. For his career, he's about 75 points lower vs. LHP, and that is actually pretty good compared to the platoon splits of most players. I don't see him platooning any time soon.
Nick may not be platooned this year. Buck will give him every chance to be a full time player. But he Nick can't have a second year of not hitting lefties and expect it not to impact his next contract. The O's or whereever are going to want him to hit both righties and lefties if he wants to be paid to do that.

Bump....Nick is now hitting .333 vs. LHP this year. So much for him becoming a platoon player! He still doesn't hit for much power vs. LHP (.362 SLG) but I'll take that BA and OBP (.373) any day.

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I think that if it was the difference between going to work in Norfolk and Baltimore that someone would have swallowed their pride by now.

I think we are underestimating the skill required.

Do you think maybe Barry Bonds had exceptional skills with the bat?

Baseball has this funny way of adjusting to everything short of being Bondsian.

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Bump....Nick is now hitting .333 vs. LHP this year. So much for him becoming a platoon player! He still doesn't hit for much power vs. LHP (.362 SLG) but I'll take that BA and OBP (.373) any day.

.317 wOBA vs lefties in a SSS after a .293 last year. I'm still not sold either way, but I'd imagine it's not difficult to find a righty to put up a .350-.375 wOBA versus lefties.

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.317 wOBA vs lefties in a SSS after a .293 last year. I'm still not sold either way, but I'd imagine it's not difficult to find a righty to put up a .350-.375 wOBA versus lefties.

The problem here is, you will never find a RHB who bats exclusively, or almost exclusively, against lefties and gets a significant number of at bats. That is the big fallacy when people talk about platoons. The LH side of a platoon can be set up to face RHP almost exclusively, because 70-75% of all major league at bats are against RHP. Of all the players who have batted more than 50 times this season, the RHB with the highest percentage of PA vs. LHP is Steve Tolleson, who in 58 PA has seen lefties 71% of the time. After him, there is a big dropoff to 64%. Meanwhile, there are dozens and dozens of LHB who see RHP more than 71% of the time, incuding 6 guys with more than 50 PA who saw RHP at least 90% of the time. And that's why you don't platoon a guy who hits RHP very well and LHP decently enough. Show me a LH platoon hitter and I'll show you a guy who really stinks vs. LHP. For example, Nyjer Morgan, who leads all LHB with 96% of his AB vs. RHP this year, has a career .561 OPS vs. LHP. Our own Steve Clevenger, who had 93% of his PA vs. RHP while on the Orioles this year, has a career .329 OPS vs. LHP. And so it goes.

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The problem here is, you will never find a RHB who bats exclusively, or almost exclusively, against lefties and gets a significant number of at bats. That is the big fallacy when people talk about platoons. The LH side of a platoon can be set up to face RHP almost exclusively, because 70-75% of all major league at bats are against RHP. Of all the players who have batted more than 50 times this season, the RHB with the highest percentage of PA vs. LHP is Steve Tolleson, who in 58 PA has seen lefties 71% of the time. After him, there is a big dropoff to 64%. Meanwhile, there are dozens and dozens of LHB who see RHP more than 71% of the time, incuding 6 guys with more than 50 PA who saw RHP at least 90% of the time. And that's why you don't platoon a guy who hits RHP very well and LHP decently enough. Show me a LH platoon hitter and I'll show you a guy who really stinks vs. LHP. For example, Nyjer Morgan, who leads all LHB with 96% of his AB vs. RHP this year, has a career .561 OPS vs. LHP. Our own Steve Clevenger, who had 93% of his PA vs. RHP while on the Orioles this year, has a career .329 OPS vs. LHP. And so it goes.

Really exceptional post. Thanks.

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