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MLBTRADERUMORS: Nick Markakis Stock Watch


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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/free-agent-stock-watch-nick-markakis.html

Though he technically has an option on his contract, Nick Markakis seems like a virtual lock to hit the open market this coming offseason. Markakis has a $17.5MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout, but mutual options are almost never exercised. Typically, if a player plays well enough for the team to exercise the option, that means he's played well enough to beat the value of that option on the open market. Conversely, if a player doesn't feel that he can top the option's value on the open market, the team likely doesn't wish to pay him at that level.

With that said, Markakis appears poised to join what will be a relatively weak free agent market for hitters and outfielders. Aside from Colby Rasmus (28 next year) and Melky Cabrera (30 next season), Markakis (31 in 2015) is one of the youngest free agent outfielders on the market. Older options like Michael Cuddyer, Nelson Cruz and Torii Hunter will be available... Markakis is well-positioned.

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Nick's stock could go anywhere from here. He was red hot for three weeks, then went hitless in 4 of 5 games and saw his numbers plummet. At his current .717 OPS he's not going to be that hot a commodity, but at .789 (his OPS a week ago) or higher, he'd probably do pretty well. I don't think he'll have his option exercised in any event.

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Nick's stock could go anywhere from here. He was red hot for three weeks, then went hitless in 4 of 5 games and saw his numbers plummet. At his current .717 OPS he's not going to be that hot a commodity, but at .789 (his OPS a week ago) or higher, he'd probably do pretty well. I don't think he'll have his option exercised in any event.
A good reason why looking at numbers this time of year if futile. From April 5 to May 11 he went 31 games with one or more hits in all but one game and an .850 OPS. Then in the last 7 G he has hits in only 2. For me he'd have to slump a lot longer than that to ignore the first 31 G stretch.
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I expect them to extend Nick for a deal at a much lower amount than he's due. The Orioles already need to find a LF and it would be silly to go into the off season again needing both.

What is the going rate for an average at best corner outfielder w/out power? (Non Choo division)

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What is the going rate for an average at best corner outfielder w/out power? (Non Choo division)

I expect Nick to command approximately double David Dejesus' 2 years $10.5 million guaranteed. I think 3 years and $21 million would be fair.

I think that could fluctuate a lot based on the rest of 2014, however. I can see anywhere from 2/$14 to 4/$40.

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I expect Nick to command approximately double David Dejesus' 2 years $10.5 million guaranteed. I think 3 years and $21 million would be fair.

I think that could fluctuate a lot based on the rest of 2014, however. I can see anywhere from 2/$14 to 4/$40.

Nick is a guy who with the exception of the second half last year has been pretty dang good from a OBP perspective.

That gives him versatility in were you can use him in a lineup. Add in the fact he is still a solid fielder gives him some additional value IMO.

If a team needs a solid OF option to contend then you could do worse than Nick. On a 3-4 yrs deal you could reasonably expect him to be contributing in the final year of that type of deal. I expect him to get 3/40 or 4/50-55

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