That’s a lot cheaper than the alternatives. Matz has kind of been up and down and has never been an innings eater. He finished real strong his last six starts but a lat strain ended his season. In some ways he has Oriole written all over him. The fact that he’s 32 and his career high in IP is 160 makes me question if he really is their kind of guy.
If the team decided that Wells had just reached his innings limit and we just shut him down last year then I think the opinion of Wells’ 2023 season as a SP would be much different.
We need a SP and a high leverage reliever for next year. What role is Wells in 2023? What’s best for Wells and the team long term? Is this decision going to be about Wells, or more based on what FA takes our offer? Whether that be a reliever or SP.
People just write off Wells as a #5, but at the ASB you could make an argument for Wells, or Bradish, as who was our best SP. Wells was leading the AL in WHIP. Wells showed last year that he can be at least a #3 type of SP.
Everyone has known since we took him in the Rule 5 draft that it was going to take some time to build him up to even 150-160 IP. Ok, so big deal… that didn’t happen in year two, and his first year starting full time. I don’t think the org just gives up on him as a SP like a lot have. I think he could be an All Star Closer. He would be our 3rd closer in a row to do that. That’s a very valuable role for us. But give me the SP that only gave up more than 3 ER three times in his first 18 starts.
Mathematically this makes no sense. Holiday is under team controls for at least 6 years and probably more because he hasn't played a single At Bat in the Majors yet.
So if you get 3 years of league minimum vs the $10M AAV, that's $27,840,000 MORE we are paying him in those 3 years. Let's add another $5M (assuming a $5M salary) in year4 / Arb1. Then another $3M (assuming a $7M salary) in year 5 Arb2. Then let's assume he hits payday and gets $15M arbitration bucks in year 6. Subtract $5.
Assuming the next 2 years would be free agent money of $25 per, we can Subtract $30M.
I was being generous with the arbitration guesses. And even then, the net result is that you're paying nearly an extra million dollars that you didn't have to, assuming all goes according to plan and he can play out the length of entire contract healthy. And assuming he's good.
For me personally - this is my only source of information on the minor leagues and international players. The reports and first hand accounts from posters and contributors on this board are a godsend for me. I don't live anywhere near Baltimore, or the east coast for that matter, so I love to hear about the farm system. This board is awesome. Thanks to all who contribute and put me in my place when I'm wrong.