Jump to content

3rd Round - Brian Gonzalez - LHP (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL)


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 136
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Even if the O's think he's a better player than his BA ranking would indicate, did they really need to take him in the 3rd round? His BA ranking suggests that he is a 12th round talent. Maybe he's higher in someone else's ranking, but I find it hard to believe that Gonzalez wouldn't have been there in a later round. You don't need to wait for the results to judge whether the O's used their 3rd round pick efficiently.

The MLB Draft doesn't work like a draft in any other league. Drafting BPA doesn't work because of the allotted money for each team. If the O's sign Brian Gonzalez for way under slot value and use that money elsewhere, then it will be a good pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The MLB Draft doesn't work like a draft in any other league. Drafting BPA doesn't work because of the allotted money for each team. If the O's sign Brian Gonzalez for way under slot value and use that money elsewhere, then it will be a good pick.

I don't think you use your first pick the draft just to get more slot money later. The Orioles must have felt he had the most potential. None of us have seen him play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think you use your first pick the draft just to get more slot money later. The Orioles must have felt he had the most potential. None of us have seen him play.

That's true. It's possible that O's scouts have seen this guy a lot more than any other team's scouts due to their lack of a first or second round pick.

I still think it's for slot money. We'll see what they do tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The MLB Draft doesn't work like a draft in any other league. Drafting BPA doesn't work because of the allotted money for each team. If the O's sign Brian Gonzalez for way under slot value and use that money elsewhere, then it will be a good pick.

He's a high school kid with a scholarship to the home town school that he's probably dreamed of playing for his whole life. Why would he settle for a lowball offer, even if his agent tells him he's being overdrafted? I'm skeptical that we're going to save a ton of money on him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do you have any idea how they plan on spending their draft pool money? I don't. There are other factors at play here, including you've never heard of this guy until a few hours ago so how do you know how good he is or isn't. I appreciate your post proving my point.

How's about we all wait a while and see how these kids do, shall we? You are an asshat with a keyboard, they do this year round. Perhaps they know just a bit better than you in this particular case. I can't believe I'm having to explain this.

Thank you for giving me the motivation to learn how to give someone negative rep. To hell with you and your name calling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you for giving me the motivation to learn how to give someone negative rep. To hell with you and your name calling.

Maybe you should redirect that motivation to learning a bit about how this draft works before you spew negative judgments. Or don't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe you should redirect that motivation to learning a bit about how this draft works before you spew negative judgments. Or don't.

You take the attitude that we peons aren't allowed to criticize the team's decisions because we aren't experts. By the same token, I guess we can't ever criticize Bobby Dickerson for send a runner to his doom, or Buck Showalter for pulling a pitcher too late, or Adam Jones for swinging at sliders in the dirt. After all, they're experts and we're just--something rude--with a keyboard, right?

What exactly is an internet message board if not for people voicing their opinions, even if they aren't expert opinions?

And do you honestly think that I'm out of line for wondering what the hell the Orioles are doing using their first pick of the draft on someone who an objective group of experts ranks as the 386th best prospect in the draft?

I'm not saying I'm necessarily right--I'm only saying that I have a reasonable viewpoint that shouldn't be dismissed by playing the "expertise" card and calling people names.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You take the attitude that we peons aren't allowed to criticize the team's decisions because we aren't experts. By the same token, I guess we can't ever criticize Bobby Dickerson for send a runner to his doom, or Buck Showalter for pulling a pitcher too late, or Adam Jones for swinging at sliders in the dirt. After all, they're experts and we're just--something rude--with a keyboard, right?

What exactly is an internet message board if not for people voicing their opinions, even if they aren't expert opinions?

And do you honestly think that I'm out of line for wondering what the hell the Orioles are doing using their first pick of the draft on someone who an objective group of experts ranks as the 386th best prospect in the draft?

I'm not saying I'm necessarily right--I'm only saying that I have a reasonable viewpoint that shouldn't be dismissed by playing the "expertise" card and calling people names.

There's a huge difference in questioning Dickerson sending a runner and this. You can quantify how often a runner scores in that situation, who's on deck, the outfielders arm, the pitchers splits, etc. What you and others have done here is read a blurb, looked at a ranking for someone you've never even *heard* of before and criticized that decision. That's madness. I'm not claiming to be any sort of expert here; I simply know what my limitations are as a fan. I'm not qualified to criticize a high school draft pick. Do you think the Orioles are intentionally making stupid decisions? Again, I can't believe I'm having to even say any of this. It should be pretty basic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a high school kid with a scholarship to the home town school that he's probably dreamed of playing for his whole life. Why would he settle for a lowball offer, even if his agent tells him he's being overdrafted? I'm skeptical that we're going to save a ton of money on him.

This shows how little you know. Agents and teams make pre-draft deals all the time. Perhaps the Os and his agent already agreed on a figure. Again, the point is you know so little about this that making critical comments is ridiculous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Initial scouting take: like this pick. Not going to bulk up much, obviously, but if a pro workout program can tighten up his body he could add a couple ticks. Velo isn't the selling point here, though. If he's sitting around 90 that's fine. FB has good movement and he can reportedly spot it well, so anywhere above about 88 should be workable. Change looked real good in that video. Same arm action, real tough to pick up out of the hand. Melewski interview says he didn't throw a curve until 10th grade which means a) he's got a lot less strain on the elbow than you'd normally see, b) his change is way more advanced than most high schoolers, c) he's got a three-pitch mix already and not out of necessity. Curve looks like it's got potential, definitely not a Harvey-esque hammer but a more than workable third offering right now that he's comfortable throwing.

If he signs for under slot I'd say this is a really good get. At slot I think it's justifiable. O's love their FB/CH guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Initial scouting take: like this pick. Not going to bulk up much, obviously, but if a pro workout program can tighten up his body he could add a couple ticks. Velo isn't the selling point here, though. If he's sitting around 90 that's fine. FB has good movement and he can reportedly spot it well, so anywhere above about 88 should be workable. Change looked real good in that video. Same arm action, real tough to pick up out of the hand. Melewski interview says he didn't throw a curve until 10th grade which means a) he's got a lot less strain on the elbow than you'd normally see, b) his change is way more advanced than most high schoolers, c) he's got a three-pitch mix already and not out of necessity. Curve looks like it's got potential, definitely not a Harvey-esque hammer but a more than workable third offering right now that he's comfortable throwing.

If he signs for under slot I'd say this is a really good get. At slot I think it's justifiable. O's love their FB/CH guys.

If they are not going to save some pool money then why pick him in the third round? What are the odds that he wouldn't have been on the board later in the draft?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we are putting a lot on this guy because he was our highest pick. Truth is, most 3rd rounders never make the majors, and most of those who do have little impact (cough - Eddie Murray - cough). In the last 10 years, the following 3rd rounders accumulated more than 5 WAR:

2004 - Ian Desmond, Adam Lind, J.A. Happ

2005 - Brett Gardner, Brian Duensing

2006 - Joe Smith

2007 - Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Harvey

2008 - Craig Kimbrell, Danny Espinosa

2009 - Kyle Seager

There are a few very good players in there, but you are talking about two guys a year out of 30 picked.

As to the Orioles, they got amazing value from Murray, of course. The others they drafted who exceeded 5 WAR were John Habyan, Alex Ochoa, and Kiko Garcia. Notably, Zach Britton was a 3rd rounder, and he may be a 5+ WAR guy in a couple of years (2.6 now).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...