Zach Britton = Mariano Rivera?

[ShaneDawg85]

The only thing I'll anoint him with is the title of All Star in 2014, because he deserves to be there.

[DrungoHazewood]

The only thing I'll anoint him with is the title of All Star in 2014, because he deserves to be there.

I guess. I'm to the point where I really couldn't care less about the All Star game, but for a long time my rule of thumb on selections is "would a three week slump make this pick look ridiculous?" And with Britton the answer is clearly yes.

[Can_of_corn]

I guess. I'm to the point where I really couldn't care less about the All Star game, but for a long time my rule of thumb on selections is "would a three week slump make this pick look ridiculous?" And with Britton the answer is clearly yes.

But that is the case with any relief pitcher. We are looking at guys with what 30-40 IP at this point?

(Britton has a higher ERA+ then Koji does)

[Brion McClanahan]

Ok... I'll quite arguing the point and let you have this one. So you have a sample of one. Name another pitcher who threw one pitch 100% of the time and was any good. Not even knuckleballers do that.

Closers or specialists don't need more than one great pitch, but I agree you can't find anyone who throws one pitch 100% of the time besides Rivera. That made him special. But I will argue that you don't need to throw a secondary pitch very often (less than 10%) to be a great reliever if you have a fantastic primary pitch.

Britton is throwing his sinker 92% of the time this year. That is over 9 out of 10 pitches. He essentially throws one pitch. Every now and then he throws a slider, but if you have a good sinker, you don't need the slider.

Kenley Jansen is throwing fastballs 95% of the time this year. When you throw as hard as he does, you can do that.

Certainly, there are many examples of guys having two very good or three very good pitches as closers (JJ and Chapman for example) but you don't need that if you have one top shelf pitch, particularly a good fastball with movement.

[Can_of_corn]

Closers or specialists don't need more than one great pitch, but I agree you can't find anyone who throws one pitch 100% of the time besides Rivera. That made him special. But I will argue that you don't need to throw a secondary pitch very often (less than 10%) to be a great reliever if you have a fantastic primary pitch.

Britton is throwing his sinker 92% of the time this year. That is over 9 out of 10 pitches. He essentially throws one pitch. Every now and then he throws a slider, but if you have a good sinker, you don't need the slider.

Kenley Jansen is throwing fastballs 95% of the time this year. When you throw as hard as he does, you can do that.

Certainly, there are many examples of guys having two very good or three very good pitches as closers (JJ and Chapman for example) but you don't need that if you have one top shelf pitch, particularly a good fastball with movement.

He did not throw his cutter 100% of the time.

Since 2007 there were exactly two months when he threw 100% cutters, sometimes his use of the cutter would fall into the 70th percentile.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=121250&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/19/2014&s_type=2

[Aristotelian]

He did not throw his cutter 100% of the time.

Since 2007 there were exactly two months when he threw 100% cutters, sometimes his use of the cutter would fall into the 70th percentile.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=121250&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/19/2014&s_type=2

Aren't "cutter" and "sinker" variations of the same pitch? As I understand it, they are both 2-seam fastballs. How does brooksbaseball tell the difference?

[Can_of_corn]

Aren't "cutter" and "sinker" variations of the same pitch? As I understand it, they are both 2-seam fastballs. How does brooksbaseball tell the difference?

Well if you ask some people all fastballs are variations of the same pitch.

Take a look at this.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=121250&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pfx_x&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/19/2014

and tell me if it is the same pitch.

[weams]

Well if you ask some people all fastballs are variations of the same pitch.

Take a look at this.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=121250&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pfx_x&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/19/2014

and tell me if it is the same pitch.

You are obviously correct.

[DrungoHazewood]

But that is the case with any relief pitcher. We are looking at guys with what 30-40 IP at this point?

(Britton has a higher ERA+ then Koji does)

No it's not. For most relievers who've been in their role for years they have an extensive resume to back up their All Star candidacy. For Rivera, for example, it was largely immaterial whether his June ERA was 4.00 or 0.50, he was the guy who's been a great closer for years and still was and was going to the AS game. Even Koji now has a number of years of spectacular performances behind him, so a few weeks of a 5.00 ERA isn't going to effect that to any degree.

This is the Ken Harvey rule. He made the All Star team in 2004 by hitting .400 for four weeks. By the break he was down to .305. Prior to '04 his MLB OPS was .718. He was out of MLB a year later. I don't think being hot for a month or two should be the sole consideration for the All Star team.

[Can_of_corn]

No it's not. For most relievers who've been in their role for years they have an extensive resume to back up their All Star candidacy. For Rivera, for example, it was largely immaterial whether his June ERA was 4.00 or 0.50, he was the guy who's been a great closer for years and still was and was going to the AS game. Even Koji now has a number of years of spectacular performances behind him, so a few weeks of a 5.00 ERA isn't going to effect that to any degree.

This is the Ken Harvey rule. He made the All Star team in 2004 by hitting .400 for four weeks. By the break he was down to .305. Prior to '04 his MLB OPS was .718. He was out of MLB a year later. I don't think being hot for a month or two should be the sole consideration for the All Star team.

So you think part of the criteria for being an all star for a particular season is being excellent in prior seasons.

Interesting.

I think it is about rewarding the current season. So we disagree on this point.

[DrungoHazewood]

So you think part of the criteria for being an all star for a particular season is being excellent in prior seasons.

Interesting.

I think it is about rewarding the current season. So we disagree on this point.

But it's not rewarding the current season. It's rewarding performance from opening day until the voting cutoff date. So it's like 45% of the current season. Not right or wrong, but I don't think that's the best criteria.

Actually, the only real criteria for All Star is "guy the fans want to see." Most casual fans don't have a flippin' clue who Zach Britton is. My wife and kids, who through me are exposed to the Orioles almost daily, couldn't pick Zach Britton out of a police lineup. They'd vote for Nick and JJ and Adam Jones and Davis.

[Aristotelian]

Well if you ask some people all fastballs are variations of the same pitch.

Take a look at this.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=121250&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pfx_x&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/19/2014

and tell me if it is the same pitch.

Fair enough...any comparison is going to be overdrawn, especially when you are talking about the greatest closer of all time. That said, I do think it is interesting that Zach has moved toward 90% reliance on FB, which he throws with remarkable command and movement. That is to say, his approach to pitching has some important similarities.

The All Star game process is completely arbitrary as far as I am concerned. I am all of whatever decision rule gets the most O's on the team. Zach deserves it as much as anybody. It would be a great story for a guy who was on the verge of becoming trade bait.

[Can_of_corn]

But it's not rewarding the current season. It's rewarding performance from opening day until the voting cutoff date. So it's like 45% of the current season. Not right or wrong, but I don't think that's the best criteria.

Actually, the only real criteria for All Star is "guy the fans want to see." Most casual fans don't have a flippin' clue who Zach Britton is. My wife and kids, who through me are exposed to the Orioles almost daily, couldn't pick Zach Britton out of a police lineup. They'd vote for Nick and JJ and Adam Jones and Davis.

That isn't accurate at all. Not only is there a mandatory representative from each team the fan's voice is only heard in the starters and the last member of each squad. Players and the team's manager also have a voice and I doubt the players, for instance, are worried about whom the fans want to see.

[PA724_Oriole]

The AllStar selection is a joke for one.

Two, Britton has a better chance of being the next KRod, Eric Gange, Jason Grilli, Chriz Perez.

One hit wonders who had a average at best overall career.

Not saying he wont be better or even great.

But no way Britton deserves a thread title such as this one at the moment. No matter how many similarities they have in the beginning of their careers.

[Malike]

Dellin Betances probably has a better shot of being the next Mariano.