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Aberdeen: 1-11, 2.0 runs scored per game


Frobby

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As an Ironbirds season ticket holder, I can say this is the worst team I have seen up there. I hope it improves as some of the better picks get stretched out and are assigned there. That said, it's the offense that is killing us and we didn't draft much of that. 19 of the players signed so far are pitchers, which is the highest total since at least 1996 (which is as far as I've gone back to date, could be longer).

The fact remains that even with a few more high pick guys added, Aberdeen would still be bad. Not all 1st and 2nd round picks go there (as g_d pointed out) and many that do are just there for a brief appearance. Stating it otherwise is not looking at the facts. Here are the results for the 1st and 2nd round picks for the last seven drafts:

2007 (1st round) - Wieters - never played at Aberdeen

2008 (1st round) - Matusz - never played at Aberdeen

2008 (2nd round) - Avery - never played at Aberdeen

2009 (1st round) - Hobgood - assigned to Bluefield, then Delmarva. Pitched 8 games at ABD the following year as injury rehab.

2009 (2nd round) - Givens - assigned to Aberdeen, played a significant amount there

2010 (1st round) - Machado - played just 7 games with Aberdeen

2011 (1st round) - Bundy - only played three games at Aberdeen this year on injury rehab

2011 (2nd round) - Esposito - never played at Aberdeen

2012 (1st round) - Gausman - pitched two games, 6 IP for Aberdeen

2012 (2nd round) - Kline - pitched four games, 12 IP for Aberdeen

2013 (1st round) - Harvey - pitched three games for Aberdeen

2013 (1st round) - Hart - played three games, 11 AB for Aberdeen

2013 (2nd round) - Sisco - played two games, 6 AB for Aberdeen

Only one player drafted in the first two round, Givens, played a significant number of games for Aberdeen. So, I think their record would still be bad even if we had our first two round picks and the compensation pick. History says those guys either would no have been assigned to Aberdeen or would have only made token appearances...not enough to improve their record much, if at all.

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I guess we all look at the history the way we want too. I brought up Garrett Olson because he was a supplemental first round pick - not because he was drafted long ago. Same with Pedro Beato. And both contributed significantly at Aberdeen. So, that's two of the last three supplemental first rounders at Aberdeen with significant contributions. Either of those guys, with five starts already as a staff leader, would have improved the fortune of the team by 1-2 wins IMO. That's the POV I have been posting from.

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As an Ironbirds season ticket holder, I can say this is the worst team I have seen up there. I hope it improves as some of the better picks get stretched out and are assigned there. That said, it's the offense that is killing us and we didn't draft much of that. 19 of the players signed so far are pitchers, which is the highest total since at least 1996 (which is as far as I've gone back to date, could be longer).

The fact remains that even with a few more high pick guys added, Aberdeen would still be bad. Not all 1st and 2nd round picks go there (as g_d pointed out) and many that do are just there for a brief appearance. Stating it otherwise is not looking at the facts. Here are the results for the 1st and 2nd round picks for the last seven drafts:

2007 (1st round) - Wieters - never played at Aberdeen

2008 (1st round) - Matusz - never played at Aberdeen

2008 (2nd round) - Avery - never played at Aberdeen

2009 (1st round) - Hobgood - assigned to Bluefield, then Delmarva. Pitched 8 games at ABD the following year as injury rehab.

2009 (2nd round) - Givens - assigned to Aberdeen, played a significant amount there

2010 (1st round) - Machado - played just 7 games with Aberdeen

2011 (1st round) - Bundy - only played three games at Aberdeen this year on injury rehab

2011 (2nd round) - Esposito - never played at Aberdeen

2012 (1st round) - Gausman - pitched two games, 6 IP for Aberdeen

2012 (2nd round) - Kline - pitched four games, 12 IP for Aberdeen

2013 (1st round) - Harvey - pitched three games for Aberdeen

2013 (1st round) - Hart - played three games, 11 AB for Aberdeen

2013 (2nd round) - Sisco - played two games, 6 AB for Aberdeen

Only one player drafted in the first two round, Givens, played a significant number of games for Aberdeen. So, I think their record would still be bad even if we had our first two round picks and the compensation pick. History says those guys either would no have been assigned to Aberdeen or would have only made token appearances...not enough to improve their record much, if at all.

This is all excellent information. With the changes to the draft with the moved-up signing date and the hard-slotting of the budget in the first 10 rounds, I think many names on the above list would have spent much more time in Aberdeen - especially the college draft picks - and looking at our recent history, a good number of our first and second round picks in a given year were college picks.

All of that is why I posted that between the first, supplement first and second round picks, at least one would likely have been a college contributor at Aberdeen - last year's draft being an exception in that we took three HSers and none contributed significantly at Aberdeen though interestingly enough all were there.

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I guess we all look at the history the way we want too. I brought up Garrett Olson because he was a supplemental first round pick - not because he was drafted long ago. Same with Pedro Beato. And both contributed significantly at Aberdeen. So, that's two of the last three supplemental first rounders at Aberdeen with significant contributions. Either of those guys, with five starts already as a staff leader, would have improved the fortune of the team by 1-2 wins IMO. That's the POV I have been posting from.

I appreciate your POV and comments, and perhaps I should have gone back farther in history to include Beato and Olson. However, even if I include them (and Reimold) it's still a minority of players drafted in the first two rounds or as comp picks that play a significant amount of time at Aberdeen. However, I think your argument that if we had all three picks, one would probably be playing at Aberdeen is reasonable.

The problem is I'm not sure how much that would help the team. The O's clearly thought the best value in this year's draft was college pitchers (I hope they're right). However, starting pitching is the one strong area of the Ironbirds (five of six starters have ERAs under 3.00). They've played 17 games to date and have score a run or less in 10 of them. Even Dylan Bundy, who gave up one run in 15 IP, didn't get a win. Perhaps they could have improved by a win or two, as you suggest. That would make them 3-14 instead of 1-16...still really bad.

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Obviously, from prior years, the team is missing good college bats from the first 10 rounds like Reimold, Matt Angle, Christian Walker, Trent Mummey, Joe Mahoney - one or two of those types are clearly missing from this year's team.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>O's rnd 4 pick RHP Pat Connaughton (Notre Dame) makes pro debut 2nite & starts for Aberdeen. Round 5 pick, RHP David Hess also will pitch.</p>— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) <a href="

">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Pat Connaughton retires the first three batters he faces in his first professional outing. His fastball topped off at 96 MPH. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IronBirds?src=hash">#IronBirds</a></p>— IronBirds PR (@IronBirdsPR) <a href="

">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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A few things:

1. Olson and Beato are going back eight and nine years, respectively. That's going back to the Beattie/Flanagan era. Is there anyone relatively high-ranking from that front office who's still employed by the Orioles? Bringing them up to suggest the O's would do something similar again, in the face of far more recent data that suggests otherwise, is silly.

2. Three college bats in the first 25 rounds does not make for a productive offense at the short-season affiliate. Especially when they're all senior signs, and three went undrafted after their junior years. In the cases of Wilkerson and Gonzalez, they were most likely guys who would never have gone as high as they did if the O's hadn't needed to scrape together every penny they could.

3. That need to scrape pennies is where Aberdeen is actually hurt by the loss of the top three draft picks. With so little money in the pool, the O's needed to start saving earlier in order to get some upside in the system. Rather than a Trey Mancini type who actually warranted top ten rounds consideration, the O's took Wilkerson, because he'd sign for 10K.

4. I haven't seen Anderson or Gonzalez play, but I had Wilkerson pegged for rounds 25-40. My guess for the most likely scenario that unfolded in the O's draft room was this: Gonzalez, Connaughton, Hess were the three main targets. In round 6, Scott was available, and they knew his number was 600K. That meant they had to move some of their late-round targets (who they knew would sign for pennies) up to fill in rounds 8-10. Looking at the way the draft panned out, it's pretty clear that the O's didn't really target any college bats before the late rounds, apart from the three in rounds 8-10. Connect the dots and it seems possible that they were 25-40 targets who only went 8-10 because taking them later wouldn't save the O's any money.

5. That said, I don't think the answer is "more college bats". The IronBirds actually have the second-highest average age among their hitters in the NYPL, and in the first 20 rounds or so, I'm of the belief that you don't draft to win minor league championships. Looking at the best hitters in the league, it seems like the answer is "more HS/JC bats last year". I liked Levi Scott last year, but he didn't sign. He'd certainly look good in the middle of that Aberdeen lineup right now. As would Randolph Gassaway, who did sign, but is apparently hurt right now. Hart could also improve the lineup if he goes there instead of Delmarva. Including the three catchers (two of whom are already at Aberdeen), the O's only signed five HS/JC bats last year. Which is actually one more than 2011 and 2012 combined, which produced Nick Delmonico and Adrian Marin, plus Jalen Simmons and Raymond Hunnicutt, who both never made it out of the GCL.

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Everything you wrote makes sense to me. I have to confess that I haven't studied the way in which draft pool funds are allocated. It's pretty obvious that our scouting department was fighting with one arm tied behind its back and the other one amputated at the elbow. We've made a lot of "win now" moves the last two years and unfortunately it's showing in the farm system.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IronBirds?src=hash">#IronBirds</a> lead the Cyclones 16-0 in the bottom of the 5th inning. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BravoZulu?src=hash">#BravoZulu</a></p>— Aberdeen IronBirds (@IronBirds) <a href="

">July 6, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Baseball, got to love it!

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IronBirds?src=hash">#IronBirds</a> lead the Cyclones 16-0 in the bottom of the 5th inning. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BravoZulu?src=hash">#BravoZulu</a></p>— Aberdeen IronBirds (@IronBirds) <a href="
">July 6, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Baseball, got to love it!

That is absolutely INSANE!!!

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They are looking better with some draft picks and GCL vets coming up - even if they are organizational players. Segui has moved from 1B to the autograph table when you walk in. Very nice guy, but not a starting 1B in that league.

Veloz has moved to first - he made three very nice plays tonight. And he's walking all of a sudden. I have seen him a bunch of times, and for the first time I saw some "want to".

Cloughton from Notre Dame has a big time arm. Easy mid-90's, and he had no problem staying in the zone. The Mudcats had no problem squaring up on him though. I only saw fastballs.

David Hess looked fantastic. Mid-90's as well - but it's a very high effort delivery. He was dominant for 3 2/3 relief innings.

Murphy struggled with the running game tonight, allowing 5 steals. In his defense, they were not holding runners well. His footwork looked slow. Had some nice at bats though. Also finished off two gun-downs at the plate.

Nice to see some improvement!

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My son and I attended the split double-header on Monday in Staten Island. As I have posted over the years, this is a pretty park with a gorgeous background view of lower Manhattan and the Freedom Tower. The SI Yanks only draw a few hundred folks so my son and I sat front row behind home plate adjacent to the Ironbirds dugout.

The two most impressive Ironbird players that day were Augie Bill who threw four easy scoreless innings. He is old for the league, but he is very, very tall and just flat dominated and Hector Veloz. I saw Hector walk in each game and hit a home run in the second game. He was working the counts, laying off curveballs and looked to be making some good strides. A quick look at milb.com has Hector at an ops over 1.000 for his last 10 games with 6 BBs and 12 Ks. That's a lot of Ks, but he might be in one of the better stretches in his career and hopefully he can keep it going.

My son and I also enjoyed lead-off player Jay Gonzalez who is very fast. He had a nice double in the second game and appears to play the game with a great attitude.

We spoke with the ball boy a good bit and gave some words of encouragement to the guys in the on-deck circle. The ball boy eventually gave my son a ball and during the time between the two games and after the second game, my son, who is 8, was able to get 18 signatures of Ironbird players and coaches - they couldn't have been nicer. My son later asked for an received a broken bat the ball boy was going to throw away. My son had an excellent time.

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