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(Almost) All Things Manny Machado....


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30 minutes ago, Natty said:

So Manny won't sign with us because he doesn't want to play with a lousy team. He wants to play on a playoff team. So the only thing to do is for the Orioles to desperately grasp for straws, and trade Manny  for anything we can get?

 

Manny is not going to extend with us.  His camp and the Orioles haven't discussed it in several seasons, because Manny wants to test free agency.  For Manny, it's about 1) getting paid and 2) playing for a winning team, which we won't be for several years due to the need to rebuild.  Realistic odds of a Manny extension this year are less than 1%.

Once you see the reality that Manny will not extend, at that point, the only sensible thing for the Orioles to do is trade him this year, for the highest return they can get.  You let him know no hard feelings, it's just business (believe me, he understands that) and if you're interested in resigning him, let him know we'll be bidding.  Then you trade him off.

The consequences of not trading Manny are keeping him for a pointless half to three-quarters of a year we don't make the playoffs... then making a QO and only getting back a comp pick for him.  And there is no way in the universe we're not going to get better value back than a comp pick when we trade him.

You have to make that trade, for the good of the team.  It's not really even debatable... it's just the reality of the situation. 

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This is turning into a perfect storm to trade Manny.  In the NL East the Braves, Mets and Phillies are all competitive and could use him.  In the NL West the Dodgers are flagging and missing their all star shortstop.  The Diamondbacks are leading the division and have had conversations with the Orioles about Manny.  In the NL Central the Cubs have stated interest and Miluakee has shown they will trade for rental players if they think they have a real chance.  I'm not even considering the AL and already you have a lot of competition in a trade. 

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19 hours ago, Natty said:

If Orioles ownership wasn't so monetarily tight (compared to other teams) we could offer Manny 30M a year and still have a 60M lower payroll than Boston. 60M extra gets outstanding pitchers for us. 

If you cant spend the money other teams do well look where we are now.

The O's spend money. They just spend a lot of if on lumpy first basemen.

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1 hour ago, theocean said:

The O's spend money. They just spend a lot of if on lumpy first basemen.

And our highest paid sluggers never seem to play that good again after they sign big contracts. Is ownership sore about all that wasted money?

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I still think the Cardinals are a sleeper trade partner for us. Carpenter's best days are behind him and he's a terrible defensive player. And even with the Wainwright injury I still think they have enough pitching depth to put together a deal centered around Weaver, Flaherty, or Reyes (once C. Martinez comes back). Ask for one of those pitchers and Tyler O'Neil (OF) and offer to include Brach if that's what it takes to get the deal done. I feel like this would be pretty solid value, even though we wouldn't be getting an heir apparent at SS. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Natty said:

Last year on this date Manny was batting .231. This year he is batting .342. What happened? 

He's a 282 career hitter.  231 is just about as far from 282 as 342 is.

These types of swings aren't exactly rare.  Cal once went 250/323/251 over a three year span.

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24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's a 282 career hitter.  231 is just about as far from 282 as 342 is.

These types of swings aren't exactly rare.  Cal once went 250/323/251 over a three year span.

Do players ever have a career best year when they are up for a new contract...then never play that good again? 

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11 minutes ago, Natty said:

Do players ever have a career best year when they are up for a new contract...then never play that good again? 

I'm sure it has happened at some point.

But I've never seen compelling evidence that players do better in walk years.

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On 5/15/2018 at 5:17 PM, Natty said:

So Manny won't sign with us because he doesn't want to play with a lousy team. He wants to play on a playoff team. So the only thing to do is for the Orioles to desperately grasp for straws, and trade Manny  for anything we can get?

 

Facepalm. Multiple facepalms.

The Orioles won't pay Manny what he will demand (and deserves).

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On 5/15/2018 at 5:59 PM, Morgan423 said:

Manny is not going to extend with us.  His camp and the Orioles haven't discussed it in several seasons, because Manny wants to test free agency.  For Manny, it's about 1) getting paid and 2) playing for a winning team, which we won't be for several years due to the need to rebuild.  Realistic odds of a Manny extension this year are less than 1%.

Once you see the reality that Manny will not extend, at that point, the only sensible thing for the Orioles to do is trade him this year, for the highest return they can get.  You let him know no hard feelings, it's just business (believe me, he understands that) and if you're interested in resigning him, let him know we'll be bidding.  Then you trade him off.

The consequences of not trading Manny are keeping him for a pointless half to three-quarters of a year we don't make the playoffs... then making a QO and only getting back a comp pick for him.  And there is no way in the universe we're not going to get better value back than a comp pick when we trade him.

You have to make that trade, for the good of the team.  It's not really even debatable... it's just the reality of the situation. 

This might be the most perfect post I have seen since we began thinking the Orioles should trade Manny.  Perfect, well done.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I have a gut feeling that Manny is about to slump.    My evidence?   He hasn’t walked in 8 games.    To me, that’s a sign that he’s starting to get impatient, and for him, that’s what normally causes him to slump.  Hope I’m wrong.  

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11. Manny Machado is the free agent in the coming mega-class who’s really enhanced his situation. It was said that he came within $5-to-10 million a few years back of signing long-term with the Orioles for something in the $80 million range. But he may get close to five times that now that he’s shown he can be an effective shortstop, and he’s hitting as good as anyone (well, anyone except Trout and Mookie Betts, that is).

 
https://frsbaseball.com/mlb/inside/inside-baseball-11-observations-from-mlbs-one-third-pole/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
 
 
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