Are the pitchers improving that much or is it Joseph?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Don't look at defensive stats much do you?

In 2011 Andino was worth 1.4 DWAR. His highest total in any other year? .7, his next highest .4.

In 2013 Flaherty was worth .6 DWAR, in 2012 and 2014 he has been worth 0.0

In 2012 Trout was worth 2.1 DWAR, in 2013 -.9 DWAR

There is a reason folks say you have to look at more then one season's worth of data when looking at defensive metrics.

Since dWAR is based on cera, I have no doubt Joseph's Dwar will go down significantly. His CS% is unsustainable as well. That said, there is little doubt he has pretty good skills defensively(looks like a plus defensively) and could likely hit better than what he has (particularly if platooned).

Using Flaherty for a Dwar argument between this year to last year is just a poorly constructed argument. I know you understand why.

[Tx Oriole]

It would be nice.

Trust me I am not rooting for the pumpkin scenario.

Oh I know you aren't.

[Can_of_corn]

Since dWAR is based on cera, I have no doubt Joseph's Dwar will go down significantly. His CS% is unsustainable as well. That said, there is little doubt he has pretty good skills defensively(looks like a plus defensively) and could likely hit better than what he has (particularly if platooned).

Using Flaherty for a Dwar argument between this year to last year is just a poorly constructed argument. I know you understand why.

I actually used his defensive information over all three of his MLB seasons. I thought it useful to use a couple examples that were Oriole players that the other readers would be familiar with. I also used Trout who had an even more pronounced difference. I figured three examples would be enough to show that substantial variances in defense are not uncommon.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I actually used his defensive information over all three of his MLB seasons. I thought it useful to use a couple examples that were Oriole players that the other readers would be familiar with. I also used Trout who had an even more pronounced difference. I figured three examples would be enough to show that substantial variances in defense are not uncommon.

I only mentioned the Flaherty example because it is obviously poor. Andino may be as well (and is likely similar to Flaherty's). If you adjusted for playing time and position allocation, Flaherty would have a dWAR fairly close to last year. I'm sure you can see his position allocation for all three years and see why. Big difference between a "utility player" and a "starter" (what Flaherty essentially was for a fair amount of time in 2013 at second base). Utility players can get dinged badly in dWAR/WAR. I don't see a Joseph comparison here being very good either (that's considering a difference between a platoon player at a single position and a utility player), though I do agree with you that his defense/dWAR will go down.

[Can_of_corn]

I only mentioned the Flaherty example because it is obviously poor. Andino may be as well. If you adjusted for playing time and position allocation, Flaherty would have a dWAR fairly close to last year. I'm sure you can see his position allocation for all three years and see why. Big difference between a "utility player" and a "starter" (what Flaherty essentially was for a fair amount of time in 2013 at second base). Utility players can get dinged badly in dWAR/WAR. I don't see a Joseph comparison here being very good either (that's considering a difference between a platoon player at a single position and a utility player), though I do agree his dWAR will go down.

I was just making a broad, sweeping point that players can have a "career" year with a glove or can go into a defensive slump for a season that is not because of decline.

I didn't really expect my off the cuff examples of variance in the performance of players to be closely scrutinized and critiqued.

I was indeed picking the low hanging fruit since a deeper analysis didn't appear to be necessary considering the basic nature of the point I was trying to convey.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I was just making a broad, sweeping point that players can have a "career" year with a glove or can go into a defensive slump for a season that is not because of decline.

I didn't really expect my off the cuff examples of variance in the performance of players to be closely scrutinized and critiqued.

I was indeed picking the low hanging fruit since a deeper analysis didn't appear to be necessary considering the basic nature of the point I was trying to convey.

Well, no offense but I thought it was not very good analysis and deserved scrutiny. There are much better and clearer ways to convey the volatility of defensive metrics thatn what you did imo. Most people are easily confused by dWAR as it is without being more confused.

Nothing personal. Please have the last word.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, no offense but I thought it was not very good analysis and deserved scrutiny. There are much better and clearer ways to convey the volatility of defensive metrics thatn what you did imo. Most people are easily confused by dWAR as it is without being more confused.

Nothing personal. Please have the last word.

Not offended in the least. I wasn't questioning your right to critique. I think I have sufficiently explained my choices.

If you would like a go at explaining the volatility of defensive performances independent of age or injuries go right ahead. I look forward to reading it.

[Can_of_corn]

Regression is a muther!

[LA2]

Regression is a muther!

Must be Chen's fault, not Caleb's.

[weams]

Must be Chen's fault, not Caleb's.

He is a league average lefty. Not a superstar.

[Can_of_corn]

He is a league average lefty. Not a superstar.

Most days a league average lefty can handle the Rays offense.

[bobmc]

Most days a league average lefty can handle the Rays or O's offense.

Or less than replacement.....

[Mitch Connor]

In 2013 Joseph's Baysox were a .500 team with average pitching.

In 2012 Joseph's Baysox were a good team with average pitching.

In 2011 Joseph's Baysox were a good team with pitching that ranked 4th of 12 EL teams.

In 2010 Joseph's Baysox were an over-.500 team with average EL pitching.

If he's a catcher whose presence is enough to dramatically improve a pitching staff in even a small sample of games then we'd have to conclude he's either changed something very significantly very recently, or that the Baysox actually had bad pitching over the last four years and he improved it to average.

Have you watched many minor league games? Team pitching stats have little to do with the quality of the catcher.

[Art Wing]

I am not under the illusion that Joseph is a everyday starting catcher long term for a winning baseball team.

I do think however he is a guy that can be an adequate backup catcher and could with the right platoon partner be a bridge to another young catcher such as Cisco if you fill out the rest of your roster appropriately. Worst case scenario he is a AAAA type guy you can move up and down as necessary.

The real positive here for me is that IMO 10yrs ago this kid would have washed out of system. Improved coaching and development spotted some potential and developed it to positive effect on the team. Joseph is a guy who fills a role, fills it a low cost and allows you spend resources elsewhere. That's good stuff right there and what winning teams and organizations do.

Ohlman is going to be the next big thing at catcher- not Cisco. Mark my words.

[DrungoHazewood]

Have you watched many minor league games? Team pitching stats have little to do with the quality of the catcher.

Really? And they do at the major league level?

Truthfully my opinion is that they don't have a lot of impact either place. I was just showing some numbers that would inject a little doubt to the hypothesis that Joseph is a master of pitch framing/calling/etc, to the point where the MLB staff almost immediately saw a massive improvement when he came up.