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3/33 extension: Hardy or Markakis


Scrat1

Do you extend Hardy or Markakis?  

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  1. 1. Do you extend Hardy or Markakis?


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The question is not how much, it's how much PA will stretch the budget to keep his Greek brother on the team and Nick's ability to adjust to a possible different role.

As far as someone's comment on Machado not becoming a FA when he becomes eligible, I remind you that his"friend" remains ARod. The only O lifer I see on this squad is AJ.

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See I don't think Manny's bat is going to get a ton better' date=' at least not what I would want out of third. It doesn't have to get that much better to play at SS.

I dont' think Manny is going to be just reasonably good at SS. I think he will be at least top 5 defensively and offensively, making him the best SS in the game. It's hard enough finding an overall "good" SS. Most that can hit, can't field. Most that can field, can't hit. 3B isn't the hardest to find. You can put Chris Davis there if you have to and he will give you reasonably good production. That isn't true of SS. I'd rather have my SS position locked down and be looking for a 3B, than have my 3B locked down and be looking for a SS.[/quote']

The 2014 average MLB third baseman has a .721 OPS, SS a .685. I would be very surprised if Manny didn't peak out at over an .800 OPS, maybe higher, possibly much higher.

I think you overstate the differences between short and third, both in finding a decent player at either spot, and in the relative hitting requirements. And I think it's certainly an unknown just how good Manny would be at short. So far at third he's averaged a +30 per 162 games. That's as good as anyone has ever been. Even if he was an excellent, +10 shortstop he'd be more valuable as a +20 third baseman.

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I suppose we could go with a good field/no hit SS if we ugrade offensively elsewhere. But if you want a good field/good hit SS, it's going to cost a lot in trade. One of the 2 Escobars, Aybar, Andrus, etc. Hardy seems like an easier solution. He has averaged 3.5 WAR the past three seasons. I don't think it's a stretch to see him put up 3, 2.5, and 2 WAR the next tree years. That would be 45 M, 3/30 M doesn't seem like a great risk.

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Don't want Nick back. He's just declining too much. He will be lucky to have a 2 WAR season this year.

Depends who's measuring. BB-ref has him at 1.0 rWAR (projects to 1.8 for the season), fangraphs has him at 1.5 fWAR (projects to 2.7 for the season).

I think you need to consider what the alternatives are. There are a lot of teams that need a corner OF this offseason, and not many decent ones on the market. If you don't want Nick at 3/$33 mm, who do you want, and what do you think it's going to cost us?

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Depends who's measuring. BB-ref has him at 1.0 rWAR (projects to 1.8 for the season), fangraphs has him at 1.5 fWAR (projects to 2.7 for the season).

I think you need to consider what the alternatives are. There are a lot of teams that need a corner OF this offseason, and not many decent ones on the market. If you don't want Nick at 3/$33 mm, who do you want, and what do you think it's going to cost us?

If they can find a first baseman, I bet you could move Davis to left field.

For the OP's question, I think that Nick is more likely to sign a 3/33 deal than JJ. Despite his lack of power due to his back, look at what Peralta got from St. Louis. I'd offer both Cruz and Hardy qualifying offers. I'd be happy if they accept, and ready to move on with draft picks if they sign elsewhere.

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Depends who's measuring. BB-ref has him at 1.0 rWAR (projects to 1.8 for the season), fangraphs has him at 1.5 fWAR (projects to 2.7 for the season).

I think you need to consider what the alternatives are. There are a lot of teams that need a corner OF this offseason, and not many decent ones on the market. If you don't want Nick at 3/$33 mm, who do you want, and what do you think it's going to cost us?

I don't think Nick will even reach 1.8 WAR, but assuming he does, for 1.8 WAR compared to what Nick will receive, I want DD to take a rock and throw it. And who it hits, put that person in RF. Then take the money we saved, and put it to better use.

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I don't think Nick will even reach 1.8 WAR' date=' but assuming he does, for 1.8 WAR compared to what Nick will receive, I want DD to take a rock and throw it. And who it hits, put that person in RF. Then take the money we saved, and put it to better use.[/quote']

So you know that, on average, if you hit a random free agent RFer projected to give you 1.8 WAR he'd cost about $10M a year, right? You could take a risk on a buy-low candidate or someone with some red flags, but then you might get nothing out of right field.

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Depends who's measuring. BB-ref has him at 1.0 rWAR (projects to 1.8 for the season), fangraphs has him at 1.5 fWAR (projects to 2.7 for the season).

I think you need to consider what the alternatives are. There are a lot of teams that need a corner OF this offseason, and not many decent ones on the market. If you don't want Nick at 3/$33 mm, who do you want, and what do you think it's going to cost us?

I don't think Nick will even reach 1.8 WAR' date=' but assuming he does, for 1.8 WAR compared to what Nick will receive, I want DD to take a rock and throw it. And who it hits, put that person in RF. Then take the money we saved, and put it to better use.[/quote']

I'm still waiting for a specific idea. It's easy to say "put that money to better use." It's another thing to find a way to do it. I think you will find that there are outfielders not as good as Nick who will sign contracts this winter for significantly more than $11 mm/yr. If the O's can find Cruz II for $8 mm, God bless 'em.

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To be clear, a one year deal might be alright for either (or both) but no way you commit the years. Would be nice to have some positional prospects ready to step in. I'm really interested to see how Baltimore tackles the off-season.

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I suppose we could go with a good field/no hit SS if we ugrade offensively elsewhere. But if you want a good field/good hit SS, it's going to cost a lot in trade. One of the 2 Escobars, Aybar, Andrus, etc. Hardy seems like an easier solution. He has averaged 3.5 WAR the past three seasons. I don't think it's a stretch to see him put up 3, 2.5, and 2 WAR the next tree years. That would be 45 M, 3/30 M doesn't seem like a great risk.

My concern would be the potential for injury, and then scrambling to find a replacement. Would be interested to see if Baltimore, with it's added international focus, could maybe uncover an all-glove shortstop that could be had on the cheap without investing too much -- bring him in and flush him if it doesn't work out.

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