3/33 extension: Hardy or Markakis

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm leaning towards neither. If I had to choose one i think it would be Hardy.

i think I'd pick up Nick's option and Q.O. Hardy at the end of the year. We do need to get some positional talent in the fold.

[MurphDogg]

I think Angelos will have a BIG say in NM's future. I don't think he'll let him go. I have no trouble with that other than the difficulty of weaning him from everyday player to more of a platoon type.

I don't understand this position. I assume it is based on their shared Greek heritage but it isn't like the Orioles have signed every Alex, Gus or Papanickolas that has hit the market. When Wieters got hurt he didn't demand that the Orioles trade for George Kotteras. Other than asking him to pitch on the Athens Olympic team and a single meeting a few years later there is no evidence to suggest that Angelos and Markakis have any kind of relationship.

[MurphDogg]

I don't think Nick will even reach 1.8 WAR' date=' but assuming he does, for 1.8 WAR compared to what Nick will receive, I want DD to take a rock and throw it. And who it hits, put that person in RF. Then take the money we saved, and put it to better use.[/quote']

I'm not sure why your thoughts should carry more weight than projections when Markakis has averaged 2.9 WAR per season over his career (including his terrible season last year). Putting complete weight on one bad year at the age of 29 is not the path most prognosticators would take.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I'm not sure why your thoughts should carry more weight than projections when Markakis has averaged 2.9 WAR per season over his career (including his terrible season last year). Putting complete weight on one bad year at the age of 29 is not the path most prognosticators would take.

What do the projections have Markakis at over the next 3 years?

[Scrat1]

If they can find a first baseman, I bet you could move Davis to left field.

I actually don't hate this idea, especially if we have Lough in the fold as a defensive sub.

[El Gordo]

I think they'll make reasonable extension offers to Cruz, Hardy and Nick, with the threat of the dread QO hanging over their heads.

[DrungoHazewood]

What do the projections have Markakis at over the next 3 years?

Which projections? Back of the napkin you can always assume an established level based on the last 4-5 years (weighted towards more recent seasons), then assume a decline of half a win a year. So I'm sure Nick would be something like 2, 1.5, and 1 win over the next three years. Or maybe 2.5, 2, 1.5 if you want to be optimistic. Given his history with the O's and his current contract I'd assume they'd be optimistic, at least a little, and offer something like a 3/36 deal. I'd be ok with that given the state of the farm and the fact he's pretty much the only Oriole who gets on base. Even if he craters $12M/year shouldn't kill you. Hope Ubaldo bounces back because $24M/year for two underperformers might be somewhat problematic.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Which projections? Back of the napkin you can always assume an established level based on the last 4-5 years (weighted towards more recent seasons), then assume a decline of half a win a year. So I'm sure Nick would be something like 2, 1.5, and 1 win over the next three years. Or maybe 2.5, 2, 1.5 if you want to be optimistic. Given his history with the O's and his current contract I'd assume they'd be optimistic, at least a little, and offer something like a 3/36 deal. I'd be ok with that given the state of the farm and the fact he's pretty much the only Oriole who gets on base. Even if he craters $12M/year shouldn't kill you. Hope Ubaldo bounces back because $24M/year for two underperformers might be somewhat problematic.

The former projections are about what I had him at over the next 3 years, maybe getting a little above 2 the first year.

[SteveO]

I'd be shocked if JJ is back next year. Production offensively is down, his defense is good but logic dictates its very likely over a 3-4 yr deal to tail off considerably.

You have a guy who could potentially be the best SS in the game in Machado on your roster.

SS is a position in which you overpay comparative to the same money spent on other positions. Stephen Drew would not sniff his contract if it were not for the fact he is a SS. DD knows this. IF he could get JJ to sign a team friendly deal then he would if not he will let him walk and rightfully so.

At the end of the day I think some team will value JJ more than we can or should. If Manny were a 3B only then the situation would be different but he is certainly capable of playing the SS position. My guess is DD acquires a 3B and spends the money elsewhere. I love JJ but long term that is the right move

[El Gordo]

I'd be shocked if JJ is back next year. Production offensively is down, his defense is good but logic dictates its very likely over a 3-4 yr deal to tail off considerably.

You have a guy who could potentially be the best SS in the game in Machado on your roster.

SS is a position in which you overpay comparative to the same money spent on other positions. Stephen Drew would not sniff his contract if it were not for the fact he is a SS. DD knows this. IF he could get JJ to sign a team friendly deal then he would if not he will let him walk and rightfully so.

At the end of the day I think some team will value JJ more than we can or should. If Manny were a 3B only then the situation would be different but he is certainly capable of playing the SS position. My guess is DD acquires a 3B and spends the money elsewhere. I love JJ but long term that is the right move

What 3B? Anyone close to Manny's production? Hardly.

[SteveO]

What 3B? Anyone close to Manny's production? Hardly.

Your not replacing Manny's production, your replacing JJ's. Manny will remain in the lineup only as a SS and Manny will put up better offense numbers than JJ at SS

I am guessing you can get 3B who is considerably cheaper and is decent with the glove for a lot less than 11 million and without investing 33 million total. I know they don't grow on trees but finding a guy who can approximate JJ's production will not be that hard.

Just my opinion but I of all the O's who could be moved or gone, JJ is the least likely to be back in my opinion.

[Frobby]

I'm amazed at how many people underestimate the impact of the great defense we have on the left side of our infield. It's the single best thing about this team. To me, you keep that duo right where they are until Hardy shows significant signs of deterioration. And stats show that plenty of great shortstops stay great defensively into their mid-30's. I'd take my chances with JJ any day.

[SteveO]

I'm amazed at how many people underestimate the impact of the great defense we have on the left side of our infield. It's the single best thing about this team. To me, you keep that duo right where they are until Hardy shows significant signs of deterioration. And stats show that plenty of great shortstops stay great defensively into their mid-30's. I'd take my chances with JJ any day.

I appreciate the defense I really do. I just think for a team that operates with the resources we do cannot afford to pay a premium for a SS when they already have a guy in the fold who can play the position and do it likely just as well.

If JJ played any other position on the diamond he would not be close to worth 11 million. If we had no other options at SS then I would agree that we should resign him. At the end of the day I seriously doubt that 3/33 gets it done anyway. Someone is going to be willing to offer him more years though likely not much more money.

I just think an 11 million a year shortstop whose primary attribute right now is defense is a luxury a team like the O's cannot afford with Manny in the fold and numerous other guys standing in line to be paid.

[brianod]

I appreciate the defense I really do. I just think for a team that operates with the resources we do cannot afford to pay a premium for a SS when they already have a guy in the fold who can play the position and do it likely just as well.

If JJ played any other position on the diamond he would not be close to worth 11 million. If we had no other options at SS then I would agree that we should resign him. At the end of the day I seriously doubt that 3/33 gets it done anyway. Someone is going to be willing to offer him more years though likely not much more money.

I just think an 11 million a year shortstop whose primary attribute right now is defense is a luxury a team like the O's cannot afford with Manny in the fold and numerous other guys standing in line to be paid.

I'm against moving Manny, you don't fix what isn't broken. If you don't want to pay JJ, I can understand that, go out and get another ss.

[El Gordo]

I'm amazed at how many people underestimate the impact of the great defense we have on the left side of our infield. It's the single best thing about this team. To me, you keep that duo right where they are until Hardy shows significant signs of deterioration. And stats show that plenty of great shortstops stay great defensively into their mid-30's. I'd take my chances with JJ any day.

Totally agree. Manny is not likely to be a 3 W SS because it is a more difficult position to play. And you won't find a 3W 3B to replace him.