At the AS Break, O's pitching tied for 4th in AL Team ERA

[Frobby]

Absolutely correct. The only way the numbers get worse is if the defense falls off.

Or if the pitching falls off.

[Aristotelian]

The bullpen is back to being awesome. Britton, O'Day and Webb are cruising along and now Tommy Hunter has joined them. Brad Brach is pitching well and TJ McFarland is outpitching himself. Only Brian Matusz is really struggling (no I don't really count Preston Guilmet). Altogether they're one of the best pens in baseball.

Also of note, Kevin Gausman is already paying dividends. He's 4-2 in seven starts with a 3.29 ERA and 1.252 WHIP.

Keep in mind also that KG's two bad starts came in non-routine situations. First start (5 ER in 4 IP vs DET) was on short rest, and the loss to Tampa (5 ER in 5 innings) came with 8 days rest (with a 1-inning start in between) while being optioned back and forth when Norris went to the DL. So he has taken some lumps for the team and still managed to pitch to a 3.29 ERA. It is still early but I cannot wait to see what he can do in the rotation.

Also on the subject of Gausman, I just loved last night how he kept his composure after Manny dropped that pop up. Seemed like he was not fazed in the least.

[crawjo]

The starters are mediocre, but the bullpen is very good and so is the defense. That counts for a lot.

Also, you can't discount the fact that the rotation has mostly stayed healthy. Imagine where we'd be if we had four starters on the shelf, as the Yankees do.

[Frobby]

The starters are mediocre, but the bullpen is very good and so is the defense. That counts for a lot.

Also, you can't discount the fact that the rotation has mostly stayed healthy. Imagine where we'd be if we had four starters on the shelf, as the Yankees do.

The starters are mediocre, but they've been pretty solid the last 6+ weeks.

[weams]

The starters are mediocre, but they've been pretty solid the last 6+ weeks.

Bud Norris is not mediocre. Chris Tillman is not mediocre. Kevin Gausman is not Mediocre.

[Aristotelian]

Bud Norris is not mediocre. Chris Tillman is not mediocre. Kevin Gausman is not Mediocre.

Bud is pretty much the definition of mediocrity. Tillman is overall better than mediocre but goes through stretches where he is mediocre or even worse than mediocre. Gausman is a stud

[ledzepp8]

Well, according to the same stats sight, we have the 9th best defense in the majors (we were thirst last season). So yes, we will outperform our FIP just as we did last year. But expecting our D to cut off half a run seems overly optimistic.

Which site is that, fangraphs? I refuse to believe there are 8 teams better than the Orioles defensively.

[Frobby]

The starters are mediocre, but they've been pretty solid the last 6+ weeks.

Bud Norris is not mediocre. Chris Tillman is not mediocre. Kevin Gausman is not Mediocre.

We can debate whether a pitcher is mediocre, talent-wise. What's not debatable is that the O's starters have a 4.09 ERA, which is 11th in the AL and slightly worse than the league average (4.06). Therefore, as a group, their performance has been mediocre. Including Tillman, whose 4.11 ERA is slightly worse than league average for a starter.

However, since May 29, the starters have a 3.42 ERA. That's why I said they've been solid for the last 6-7 weeks. Hopefully that will continue. If it does for the rest of the season, then by September we won't be saying that the starting pitching has been mediocre.

[Aristotelian]

We can debate whether a pitcher is mediocre, talent-wise. What's not debatable is that the O's starters have a 4.09 ERA, which is 11th in the AL and slightly worse than the league average (4.06). Therefore, as a group, their performance has been mediocre. Including Tillman, whose 4.11 ERA is slightly worse than league average for a starter.

However, since May 29, the starters have a 3.42 ERA. That's why I said they've been solid for the last 6-7 weeks. Hopefully that will continue. If it does for the rest of the season, then by September we won't be saying that the starting pitching has been mediocre.

What numbers are you looking at? I see AL league average as 4.09 ERA (American League) and Orioles at 3.83 (5th place in AL).

[DrungoHazewood]

Wrong. FIP points to regression. FIP also assumes a ball hit off the top of the wall and a slow GB back to the mound result from the same pitch quality.

So? ERA assumes a line drive off the Green Monster is the same as swinging bunt. It assumes a run in Colorado is equal to a run in PETCO. ERA decides that four consecutive homers after a two-out error didn't happen. ERA says the Orioles' defense is the same as the Astros'. Batting average says that a 450-foot homer and a slow grounder past a diving Jeter are the same thing. Slugging average believes walks and HBP don't exist. Fielding percentage says Brian Downing was better than Paul Blair.

You have to use the tools for their purpose in the right context. You can always find flaws if you expect everything to do everything.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Well, according to the same stats sight, we have the 9th best defense in the majors (we were thirst last season). So yes, we will outperform our FIP just as we did last year. But expecting our D to cut off half a run seems overly optimistic.

Looking quickly at our starters this year, RA9def (i.e the defense) is saving approximately 0.3 runs per game. That' s a pretty big number and does match us pretty very close to xFIP when factored in.

[CA-ORIOLE]

What numbers are you looking at? I see AL league average as 4.09 ERA (American League) and Orioles at 3.83 (5th place in AL).

If you look at runs allowed per game, we are tied for 3rd in the AL with KC at 4.03. Very far behind only SEA and OAK (two notorious pitchers parks). That's pretty damn good. That said, OPACY has tended very much as a pitchers park so far this year. I expect that will change.

[DrungoHazewood]

Which site is that, fangraphs? I refuse to believe there are 8 teams better than the Orioles defensively.

The Orioles are one of the 5-6 most flyball prone teams in MLB and their outfielders are Cruz (pretty terrible), Jones (good arm, not great range for a CFer), and Markakis (range is pretty poor).

[CA-ORIOLE]

The Orioles are one of the 5-6 most flyball prone teams in MLB and their outfielders are Cruz (pretty terrible), Jones (good arm, not great range for a CFer), and Markakis (range is pretty poor).

DRS has us 3rd at 29 runs saved. UZR 9th at about 20 runs saved. I generally go with DRS over UZR. BP's DER (park adjusted) has us fourth.

[wildcard]

The pitching is improved but not good enough to beat Oakland at present. If winning the World Series is the goal the O's pitching in not good enough. If all you are shooting for is to win the division then it should hold up especially with Gausman solidly in the rotation now.

Personally, I think the O's need one more TOR starter.