At the AS Break, O's pitching tied for 4th in AL Team ERA

[DrungoHazewood]

It seems logical to me that, if the playoffs are constructed so that you never need to use your fifth starter, there will be some bias in favor of teams who have a good top of the rotation but a weak back end. Also, the best pitchers wil get a much higher percentasge of the starts than during the regular season.

3 game series -- the no. 1 starter gets 33% of the starts, the nos. 1-2 get 67%.

4 games series -- the no. 1 starter gets 25%, nos. 1-2 get 50%

5 game series -- the no. 1 starter gets 40%, nos. 1-2 get 60%

6 game series -- the no. 1 starter gets 33%, nos. 1-2 get 67%.

7 game series -- the no. 2 starter gets 29%, nos. 1-2 get 57%.

In every case, the nos. 1 and 2 starters are getting a hgiher percentage than in the regular season, so that clearly favors the team with a strong top but a weaker bottom compared to the more balanced team. (Of course, this assumes the team is able to line up its rotation before the playoffs commence. It could backfire if the no. 3 starter has to pitch first.)

Yes, but most playoff teams have pretty good starters and some depth. And teams with weaker back ends of the rotation can mitigate that to some extent by using someone like Bud Norris in relief where he's probably more like Tommy Hunter.

[DrungoHazewood]

I wouldn't think of you as a guy to be cherry picking stats to make a case. Other things being equal (even relatively equal), the team with the frontline pitchers has to have a significant advantage. Are there examples where this advantage can be overcome? Yeah sure, but this pretty much common sense.

Is there some advantage? Yes, that seems likely. But is that advantage often, or even usually, overwhelmed by other factors? That certainly appears to be the case.

[SilentJames]

Just to get a clear answer on this:

How much is the Orioles' defense really helping their pitchers' FIP?

A lot, a little, not much at all.

If the defense is the biggest factor leading to the solid ERA numbers - then how much "decline" should the Orioles really expect in the second half assuming the personnel doesn't significantly change?

[CA-ORIOLE]

ERA doesn't make any assumptions at all, nor does batting average. Both are used to report past performance, not make any predictions about future performance. .

I stopped here, because this is just off base and is commonly incorrect. ERA is a performance stat. FIP and xFIP are performance stats. You may not like them, and that is fine. FIP/xFIP were not designed to "predict" future performance anymore then ERA was, it just happens that FIP is the best predictor of future performance.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Is there some advantage? Yes, that seems likely. But is that advantage often, or even usually, overwhelmed by other factors? That certainly appears to be the case.

Again, absent of cherry picking, I think wildcard's point is intuitively a given and very much common sense to me. Yes, we can debate the specifics of how much of an advantage based on specific situations.

If anything, I think Wildcard's point may be understated, as I have read that below average hitters perform incrementally poorer (than predicted) against top quality pitchers.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Just to get a clear answer on this:

How much is the Orioles' defense really helping their pitchers' FIP?

A lot, a little, not much at all.

If the defense is the biggest factor leading to the solid ERA numbers - then how much "decline" should the Orioles really expect in the second half assuming the personnel doesn't significantly change?

As I referenced earlier, according to bref/RA9 (based on DRS), the defense is helping the starting pitchers ERA by about .3 runs. per 9 innings over average. So, if we had an average defense, the ERA would actually be pretty close to xFIP (and FIP) at this point. That is pretty high, but I wouldn't expect that to decline significantly unless 2 or more of our best defenders are injured. We have a very good defense.

[spiritof66]

Just to get a clear answer on this:

How much is the Orioles' defense really helping their pitchers' FIP?

A lot, a little, not much at all.

If the defense is the biggest factor leading to the solid ERA numbers - then how much "decline" should the Orioles really expect in the second half assuming the personnel doesn't significantly change?

Why should we expect the defense to decline over the rest of the season? I would expect it to improve at SS (where Hardy, while he's been good, should be better) and at 3B (with Manny rounding into top form and available full-time). I didn't and don't know what to expect from the catching corps, but other than that don't think anyone else has been over-performing defensively.

[SilentJames]

Not decline in the defense, decline in the pitching as the deflated ERA approaches the FIP numbers which control for factors like defense.

But if the team's defense is truly the thing that is driving the de-flated ERA and it is not just an anomaly, then we should not expect any significant decline to the higher FIP number. So that criticism of the team does not hold a lot of water.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Not decline in the defense, decline in the pitching as the deflated ERA approaches the FIP numbers which control for factors like defense.

But if the team's defense is truly the thing that is driving the de-flated ERA and it is not just an anomaly, then we should not expect any significant decline to the higher FIP number. So that criticism of the team does not hold a lot of water.

That sounds logical. The only thing I could see adversely affecting ERA (outside of injuries/fatige/depth issues) are environmental factors and possibly better competition and some guys in the BP have arguably overperformed etc. For whatever reason, OPACY has played very pitcher friendly thus far.

[DrungoHazewood]

Again, absent of cherry picking, I think wildcard's point is intuitively a given and very much common sense to me. Yes, we can debate the specifics of how much of an advantage based on specific situations.

If anything, I think Wildcard's point may be understated, as I have read that below average hitters perform incrementally poorer (than predicted) against top quality pitchers.

All I'm saying is... well, since 2000 there have been 14 teams that had at least three 4+ rWAR starters. Those teams went 7-11 in postseason series.

[CA-ORIOLE]

All I'm saying is... well, since 2000 there have been 14 teams that had at least three 4+ rWAR starters. Those teams went 7-11 in postseason series.

i have countered this point about 4 times now. I would think that would be enough. You know, apples to apples. Also, I'd probably look at quality top 2's in doing this evaluation.

Beane acquired Samardzija for a reason, and it wasn't to help make the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

i have countered this point about 4 times now. I would think that would be enough. You know, apples to apples. Also, I'd probably look at quality top 2's in doing this evaluation.

Beane acquired Samardzija for a reason, and it wasn't to help make the playoffs.

He also acquired Johnson. I am sure he had a reason for that as well.

[DrungoHazewood]

i have countered this point about 4 times now. I would think that would be enough. You know, apples to apples. Also, I'd probably look at quality top 2's in doing this evaluation.

Beane acquired Samardzija for a reason, and it wasn't to help make the playoffs.

I think I'm missing something here, not unusual, but anyway... there have also been 14 teams since 2000 with two or more 6+ rWAR starters. They were 8-8 in postseason series, with one World Series victory (the 2001 D'backs).

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think I'm missing something here, not unusual, but anyway... there have also been 14 teams since 2000 with two or more 6+ rWAR starters. They were 8-8 in postseason series, with one World Series victory (the 2001 D'backs).

Lets, see if I can break it down for you. Answer 2 questions:

1. Do you agree the the team that wins the first game of a playoff series enjoys a statistical advantage in that series?

2. Lets assume we have 2 theoretical teams. One with a no 1 TOR starter, 3 number 3 starters and one 4/5 starter. The other team with 5 number three starters. Everything else is "equal". Which team is more likely to win the series?

[CA-ORIOLE]

He also acquired Johnson. I am sure he had a reason for that as well.

Ok, show me a GM that hasn't made mistakes and some poor trades.