At the AS Break, O's pitching tied for 4th in AL Team ERA

[Can_of_corn]

Give me a break. The reason was stated and is obvious. It's nice to be a playoff team but at some point you do want to take next step. Is there huger risk there? Of course.

Sounds like the Phillies reasoning when they signed Lee.

I think recent playoffs have shown that a superior pen can be more of a factor. (I could be wrong)

[Il BuonO]

Flush the first 12 million down the drain. You know, like if we still had Brian Roberts.

Except I get the feeling he'll be the round peg no matter how he performs and that's just one year.

[Can_of_corn]

Of course there is. That's a terrible situation. That said, and as bad as the owner is, I'm not sure that's great fanbase either.

Well that is one.

I think there are other teams that place profits above rings. (I in fact think the O's have been one of those teams in the recent past)

[DrungoHazewood]

Give me a break. The reason was stated and is obvious. It's nice to be a playoff team but at some point you do want to take next step. Is there huge risk there? Of course.

I think Beane knows his #$/^ still don't work in the playoffs. The only way to up his odds is to be a lot better than everyone else.

[Can_of_corn]

I think Beane knows his #$/^ still don't work in the playoffs. The only way to up his odds is to be a lot better than everyone else.

You lost more of them then you've won Earl.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Sounds like the Phillies reasoning when they signed Lee.

I think recent playoffs have shown that a superior pen can be more of a factor. (I could be wrong)

Because all GM's are equal at risk management I guess? Because Beane's strategy is analagious to investing 80 mil per season in mostly veteran SP's. Come on man, you're better than this.

[Hallas]

All I'm saying is... well, since 2000 there have been 14 teams that had at least three 4+ rWAR starters. Those teams went 7-11 in postseason series.

I thought that a top-2 was more important. Could you run a query on teams with at least 2 5+ or 4.5+ rWAR starters? The 3rd pitcher can pitch only once per series, which the ace usually can pitch twice and the #2 can pitch twice in BO7 series on normal rest (assuming the team can start its #1 and #2 the first two games.) The top two starters start something like 60% of playoff games.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think Beane knows his #$/^ still don't work in the playoffs. The only way to up his odds is to be a lot better than everyone else.

I guess you don't.

Samardzija was not needed to make the playoffs (or likely the division). Even Hammel would have been just fine for them. Lets not get into the acquisition cost. It was clearly a move to position themselves better in the post season.

[Can_of_corn]

Because all GM's are equal at risk management I guess? Because Beane's strategy is analagious to investing 80 mil per season in mostly veteran SP's. Come on man, you're better than this.

I am not talking about signing Howard to that insane extension, or Papelbon for that matter.

Adding Lee was supposed to give them an advantage in the playoffs with Doc and Hammels.

Now since Beane is a lot better at risk management he is not tied down to his ace for a long term deal.

I do think I would take the lock down pen over the double aces.

[Il BuonO]

Give me a break. The reason was stated and is obvious. It's nice to be a playoff team but at some point you do want to take next step. Is there big risk there? Of course, but not some devastating risk either. .

While I agree with everything you've said here I'm not in favor of selling the farm form Wildcard's suggestion of Sale. I've watched enough pitchers to know that guy is a ticking bomb mechanically. Not if but when.

And since it was left out of an earlier post that had been making use of ERA+ and then shifted to WAR here are the numbers for the trio of Cain (124+), Sanchez (127+), and Bumgarner (131+) at the end of 2010.

That looks like a decided edge going into the playoffs.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I do think I would take the lock down pen over the double aces.

Most playoff teams have at least decent BP's. I don't see it as a factor in that respect.

[Can_of_corn]

Most playoff teams have at least decent BP's. I don't see it as a factor in that respect.

With all the days off I think we have seen shorter leashes on starting pitchers and I think that trend will increase as time goes on.

[CA-ORIOLE]

With all the days off I think we have seen shorter leashes on starting pitchers and I think that trend will increase as time goes on.

Are you talking as an overall season strategy, the Orioles specifically, or playoff baseball?

[CA-ORIOLE]

While I agree with everything you've said here I'm not in favor of selling the farm form Wildcard's suggestion of Sale. I've watched enough pitchers to know that guy is a ticking bomb mechanically. Not if but when.

And since it was left out of an earlier post that had been making use of ERA+ and then shifted to WAR here are the numbers for the trio of Cain (124+), Sanchez (127+), and Bumgarner (131+) at the end of 2010.

That looks like a decided edge going into the playoffs.

Yeah, I don't think we're in a position like the A's to deal prospects for Sale and I do understand the volatility/risk with pitchers.

[Can_of_corn]

Are you talking as an overall season strategy, the Orioles specifically, or playoff baseball?

My ultimate goal would be to remove starters eventually but that isn't what I am talking about here.

With the way the playoffs are set up you can move between 1-2 starters to the pen.

With the built in days off you can pretty much work all your best guys every game.

I would not hesitate to pull starters before the hitters got a third look at them. 18 batters then the pen.