Fangraphs: The Orioles Don't Care About Our Expectations

[ShaneDawg85]

I think it can be said that the walks are so bad almost solely because of Jimenez. Tillman and Gonzalez are a little worse than their career BB/9 rates, Norris is under his career rates, and Chen is reliable at not allowing walks. 5.4 BB/9 rate out of Jimenez though? That will do it.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Bye bye EdRod and CDubs....

I'm fine with this deal.

[mark_beckens]

Inside the park home runs are in play. Over the fence is out of the field of play.

Wasn't anyone short of Superman going to make a play on that ball Stanton hit last night.

Does FIP distinguish between inside the park and over the fence?

[El Gordo]

Right pay no attention to 10 G over .500, the O's are destined for last place because of their FIP. When will people learn that what happens between the lines doesn't matter, it's what's on paper that counts. I'm done the O's, the losers with their crappy FIP, when do the Ravens start training?

[scOtt]

They?re not on the way to 100 losses, of course. They?re in first place at the All-Star break, with the fourth-most wins in the American League and the third-largest division lead in the game, and are the overwhelming favorites to stay in first place according to our projections. Just like we all expected, of course. Never change, baseball. You?re the best.

If you trust FG projections.....

[Phantom]

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play.

McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher?s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

I could be wrong, but isn't a homerun a ball in play? Exactly how can a pitcher have little control over balls in play, yet have control over homeruns?

FiP and xFip disagree on the extent to which pitchers control their HR/FB rate (IRRC xFiP assumes regression to league mean).

Right pay no attention to 10 G over .500, the O's are destined for last place because of their FIP. When will people learn that what happens between the lines doesn't matter, it's what's on paper that counts. I'm done the O's, the losers with their crappy FIP, when do the Ravens start training?

[scOtt]

And your little dog too!

[25 Nuggets]

Dan Duquette laughs in the face of sabermetrics!!

wait...

[MrOrange82]

Well, fangraphs managed to teach me something with that article. I didn't know the IronBirds are a AA squad.

Bud raised their game, apparently.

[Number5]

And your little dog too!

[video=youtube;TdwomNPaMZg]

[Can_of_corn]

Dave fires back!

(sound better then calmly explains)

Dave Cameron says:

July 15, 2014 at 1:26 pm

Attention angry Orioles fans: the gap between your ERA and your FIP is based on timing, not defense. You can see this clearly in the value section of the pitching leader boards. Remember that runs allowed is basically FIP + hit prevention + sequencing, and we break down how a team is doing in each of those three variables. The Orioles:

FIP WAR: +5.5 (26th)

BIP WAR: +1.6 (8th)

LOB WAR: +4.1 (1st)

RA9 WAR: +11.3 (7th)

A team’s sequence-neutral pitching and defense can be measured by just adding FIP-WAR and BIP-WAR together. The Orioles defense, by holding down the team’s BABIP, has contributed almost two extra wins, and is helping the team outperform their FIP. But it’s not the main reason. That’s the timing of events, the LOB WAR, where the Orioles are again leading the league.

If you want to argue that the Orioles have an inherent skill that allows them to strand baserunners, go right ahead. But that’s the argument you have to make. It’s not the defense.

[MrOrange82]

Dave fires back!

(sound better then calmly explains)

Does "stranding baserunners" incorporate/consider things like turning double plays and preventing baserunners from taking extra bases (e.g., Joseph's ability to hold down opponents' running games, or batters not turning singles into doubles thanks to good arms in the OF)? If so, isn't that, in a way, a product of the defense, as opposed to some kind of intangible ability to "strand" people on the bases?

[Can_of_corn]

Does "stranding baserunners" incorporate/consider things like turning double plays and preventing baserunners from taking extra bases (e.g., Joseph's ability to hold down opponents' running games, or batters not turning singles into doubles thanks to good arms in the OF)? If so, isn't that, in a way, a product of the defense, as opposed to some kind of intangible ability to "strand" people on the bases?

Ask him, I don't know enough about their process to answer.

[El Gordo]

If DD and Buck don't care about this guy why should I.

[scOtt]

Well, fangraphs managed to teach me something with that article. I didn't know the IronBirds are a AA squad.

Bud raised their game, apparently.

Maybe not AA but aren't a lot of our highest picks sent there? For the half season after they're signed in June/July. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they're at least a very very high A team mostly.