Fangraphs: The Orioles Don't Care About Our Expectations

[hoosiers]

We're not getting away from what happened, we're trying to figure out why. If you've convinced yourself that what happened is a controlled environment then you've started off on the wrong foot. There are nearly infinite outcomes from each set of starting conditions. No one was predestined for a certain number of earned runs. If you don't ask the why, if you don't isolate the defense from the park from the pitcher, then you're doomed to say that Kevin Brown and Steve Stone were the same pitcher, since they had the same ERA for the Orioles. Or BJ Ryan and Mike Mussina. Or Mike Flanagan, TJ McFarland, and Ben McDonald.

No knowledgeable baseball person is doomed to make such incorrect conclusions. Stop the hyperbole.

[SilentJames]

I don't think that is a good place to start. I disagree with the concept that those are the outcomes that a pitcher "has control over".

A pitcher doesn't have control over strike outs, walks and homers?

I mean those are probably the things he could possibly the most control over. If he doesn't have control over those things, then what does he have control over?

[Frobby]

A pitcher doesn't have control over strike outs, walks and homers?

I mean those are probably the things he could possibly the most control over. If he doesn't have control over those things, then what does he have control over?

I have some reservations on saying that a pitcher controls homers, when we know that HR/FB ratios can vary a lot from year to year. But the truth is, the pitcher, batter, catcher and umpire are all involved in strikeouts and walks. Even the ballpark can influence those things, depending how much foul territory there is. Nothing rests 100% on the pitcher. Just some things more than others.

[hoosiers]

A pitcher doesn't have control over strike outs, walks and homers?

I mean those are probably the things he could possibly the most control over. If he doesn't have control over those things, then what does he have control over?

I believe you mis-interpreted my post and/or I should have been more clear.

I don't believe Ks, BBs and home runs are a good place to start an analysis because I believe a pitcher has control over more outcomes than just those results.

[Hallas]

I believe you mis-interpreted my post and/or I should have been more clear.

I don't believe Ks, BBs and home runs are a good place to start an analysis because I believe a pitcher has control over more outcomes than just those results.

I think that the approach is that it's not perfect, but that a pitcher definitely has control over these things, so we won't worry about the other stuff. I don't really agree entirely with it either but it does isolate a significant amount of a pitcher's performance. Using batted ball outcomes would be nice, but it's difficult to quantify the effect that has on balls in play, because defenses are getting smarter and doing a better job suppressing BABIP thanks to shifts. So it's really hard to get a handle on all the other stuff that a pitcher does have control over.

[DrungoHazewood]

No knowledgeable baseball person is doomed to make such incorrect conclusions. Stop the hyperbole.

Some of my comments to you and BohKnowsBmore were a little over-the-top. My intended point was that FIP is just another perspective. ERA is the accepted measure, and it has a ton of flaws and assumptions. Everyone needs to look beyond the what and into the why, that's all.

[DrungoHazewood]

I believe you mis-interpreted my post and/or I should have been more clear.

I don't believe Ks, BBs and home runs are a good place to start an analysis because I believe a pitcher has control over more outcomes than just those results.

Almost everyone believes that. Knowledgable baseball fans almost all believe that. But we need to keep perspective - the observed difference in results among MLB pitchers when looking at things other than BB/K/HR is quite small. That's why FIP works as well as it does.

[srock]

Just browsed through the whole thread and I have two unrelated comments:

Gausman 'replacing' Jimenez is not an accurate prediction. I think Guasman gets plenty more inning in the second half, but I highly doubt Ubaldo gets far less. And lets all hope Ubaldo continues his past track record (albeit inconsistent) of pitching better in the second half. To me, Gausman and Jimenez combining for a sub 4.00 ERA, and averaging over 6 IP a start will carry this team to the post season.

Secondly, per FIP and the general troubles with measuring things like defense and seperating what a pitcher controls or doesn't, I think the MLBAM data is going to totally change what data is important.

The velocity/trajectory of all batted ball is likely going to the root of all sabermetrics one day. This will likely render FIP and other such stats obsolete because we will have a better basis to compare against results. When will we have this data? Depends on when the get the system in all stadiums and working properly, but its coming.

[DrungoHazewood]

The velocity/trajectory of all batted ball is likely going to the root of all sabermetrics one day. This will likely render FIP and other such stats obsolete because we will have a better basis to compare against results. When will we have this data? Depends on when the get the system in all stadiums and working properly, but its coming.

Depends on what's proprietary and what's public. I wouldn't necessarily count on the juicy stuff being in the public domain, at least in the short-term.

[srock]

Depends on what's proprietary and what's public. I wouldn't necessarily count on the juicy stuff being in the public domain, at least in the short-term.

Certainly a fair prediction. I do think most everything will be public eventually. The hardcore fan base of the sport have always loved the numbers, its just good marketing to put it all out there.

After the teams get dibs on analyzing and coming up with there own strategies of course.

[hoosiers]

Almost everyone believes that. Knowledgable baseball fans almost all believe that. But we need to keep perspective - the observed difference in results among MLB pitchers when looking at things other than BB/K/HR is quite small. That's why FIP works as well as it does.

I appreciate what you are saying and I appreciate that the FIP numbers work.

I understand what I see can run counter to FIP which might work well.

I just can't buy that a pitcher only controls those things. That a pitcher can "control" a HR, but not be responsible for a double hit off the fence or get credit for 10 easy pop-up outs in a row or lazy ground balls is difficult to grasp ....... and shouldn't have to be grasped.