Evaluate the Bedard trade

[turtlebowl]

I'm wondering also about evaluating a trade that has not been announced. First I don't want ti jinx this thing. Secondly, As much bad info we have heard regarding this trade, would it surprise anyone if their may be a name in involved that we don't expect.

[geschinger]

I think you just made my point. There is no way that Tillman should be the second player in the Bedard trade. But that is the rumor. After rumors of Kemp and Kershaw (which were probably never true); Bailey, Votto, and/or Cueto; Jones and Morrow; Jones and Clement; all who are more developed players, now the rumor is Jones and Tillman. The risk for the O's is much, much higher and but that appears to be the corner that MacPhail has painted himself into.

In the risk reward equation I don't believe there is a lot of difference getting five guys instead of Jones/Morrow/Sherrill or Jones/Clement/Sherrill. Sometimes it's those higher ceiling less developed players that end up making the trade. If deal ends up being the 5 for 1 as mentioned it's a nice risk/reward balance IMO and could be even better if the O's use Sherrill as the closer and then spin him off for another high ceiling prospect or two.

[Frobby]

Bump...this is a fun thread to revisit.   

Jones 27.7 rWAR for the O's (18.6 prior to free agent eligibility)

Tillman 13.6 rWAR for the Orioles (one pre-FA year remaining)

Sherrill 1.8 rWAR as an Oriole (traded for Steve Johnson who was worth 0.9 as an Oriole and Josh Bell who was worth -0.8)

Mickolio was worth 0.0 and was part of the trade for Mark Reynolds.

 

[sportsfan8703]

On 2/1/2008 at 9:18 PM, wildcard said:

My main point here is that all four of these pitcher are so far away from the majors that no one knows what they will do when and if they get to there. Erbe just turned 20 and Tillman will be 20 in April. One is 6'4", the other is 6'5". They both have shown they can strike out batters in A Ball. Both did not do as well last year at A+ as some scouts would like ERA wise.

If you are very confident that you know which one will be the better pitcher throughout their career, which one will stay healthy, then I think you should stop work and make tons of money on the lottery. Because you can really pick them.

Personally, I don't think anyone can look at these 2nd and 3rd round, 19 or 20 year old picks, both with good stuff and say who will be better when they both have pretty darn look arms.

The rates on these two talented pitcher is more like what have you done for me lately.

"2008 Baseball America rated #3 for the Marines

Chris Tillman, rhp Born: April 15, 1988. • B-T: R-R. • Ht: 6-5. • Wt: 195.

Drafted: HS—Fountain Valley, Calif., 2006 (2nd round).

Strengths: The lanky Tillman is growing into his 6-foot-5 frame, and the leverage in his clean delivery gives extra life to an above-average 91-94 mph four-seam fastball. Tillman throws a true 11-to-5 curveball with tight rotation and late break that functions as his strikeout pitch. He has a loose arm and could grow into more strength and velocity. He shows aptitude for a changeup, but it's still his third pitch.

2007 Baseball America rated #2 for the O's ahead of Liz.

2. Brandon Erbe, rhp Born: December 25, 1987 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 180

Drafted: HS--Baltimore, 2005 (3rd round) •

Strengths: Erbe works anywhere from 92-97 mph with his fastball, sitting around 94-95, and he can locate it on both sides of the plate. His slider is also a potential plus pitch when he commands it. Orioles officials have also been impressed by his demeanor and mound presence, which is advanced for his age and has been compared to that of Jim Palmer."

2007 BA 100 Prospects

Erbe #78

Morrow #87

Beato #99

Tillman Not rated

Butler Not rated

Some scouts seem to be higher on Tillman than Erbe right now because Erbe control was not up to par last year. However, betting on who will do better this year is a toss up.

What happened to Erbe again?  People will probably point to this trade as evidence that we should trade Manny, Britton, etc...  I'd like to point out that Erbe and Beato were top 100 prospects and didn't even start a game in the MLB.  Erbe's big fat 0 and Beato's 93.1 IP.  

Trades and prospects are crap shoots.  The best thing that AM got in this trade was a MLB ready player in Jones.  Tillman was pretty much luck as evidenced from above.  Sherrill was a good closer on a bad team that netted us a top 40 prospect in Josh Bell.  So basically all the top 100 prospects involved all failed and the MLB ready guy in Jones, and the underrated Tillman, were the best two parts.  

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What happened to Erbe again?  

Shoulder surgery.   

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Shoulder surgery.   

Thanks.  At least our pitchers got with the program and started having elbow surgeries.  

[O's84]

I don't have time to read these right now but I'm going to do so tomorrow.  Ah, the memories!

[O's84]

AM's greatest trade!  He got back everything but his next sweater vest.

[Yardball85]

On 12/21/2016 at 9:15 PM, backwardsk said:

Which team, what ransom?  Name names.

Ah, 2008... I was a sophomore at UMD. James Gist and Boom Osby were seniors, the Orioles REALLY wanted Felix Pie to be included in a Brob deal along with Murton/Gallagher. Always fun to look back on. Thanks for the bump Frobby.

[Redskins Rick]

That was a nice bump and trip down memory lane.